Illumina

ILMNNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$212.93
−$1.98 (−0.92%)Today 1M −22.74%
After hours$212.930.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$214.91
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$212.74–$227.71
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.9M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$112.65–$309.35
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own ILMN if Illumina is a high-margin genomics platform whose stock depends on proving that its sequencing-and-array franchise is not merely durable, but capable of renewed growth after several years of revenue stagnation.

ILMN price history

Latest price$212.93Today−$1.98 (-0.92%)
ILMN -21.98%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Illumina’s broad footprint in research, clinical, and applied sequencing-and-array workflows keeps the franchise embedded, but the business must turn that embedded position back into instrument upgrades and consumable pull-through rather than merely defending a flat base.HoldingMateriality: High

    Company description identifies Illumina as a provider of sequencing- and array-based solutions serving research, clinical, and applied markets. If embedded workflows resume expanding, revenue growth can return; if labs keep spending cautiously or migrate new workflows elsewhere, Illumina becomes a slower-growth instrument franchise.

    Watch: Element Biosciences, MGI, Ultima Genomics, or other lower-cost short-read platforms win greenfield placements and begin displacing Illumina in validated production workflows.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Company description identifies Illumina as a provider of sequencing- and array-based solutions serving research, clinical, and applied markets.

    Open source ↗
  • Illumina’s proprietary sequencing-and-array ecosystem retains enough workflow lock-in and reagent pull-through to prevent price-per-sample competition from collapsing GAAP gross margin.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP gross profit was $2.870 billion on $4.343 billion of revenue in FY2026, implying a still-high gross margin profile. Gross margin is the clearest test of whether Illumina still has pricing power and consumable economics, not just installed equipment.

    Watch: Element Biosciences, MGI, or Ultima Genomics force broad price cuts in core short-read sequencing consumables.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP gross profit was $2.870 billion on $4.343 billion of revenue in FY2026, implying a still-high gross margin profile.

    Open source ↗
  • Management’s portfolio discipline and cost control can convert Illumina’s gross-profit pool into durable GAAP operating earnings rather than allowing restructuring, litigation, or strategic distractions to consume the franchise economics.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating income improved to $807 million in FY2026 after GAAP operating losses of $833 million in FY2025 and $1.069 billion in FY2024. A high-gross-margin platform only creates owner value if operating expenses and strategic decisions allow that margin to reach operating income.

    Watch: Illumina resumes large acquisition or incubation projects that create integration, impairment, or regulatory risk similar to prior strategic overreach.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating income improved to $807 million in FY2026 after GAAP operating losses of $833 million in FY2025 and.

    Open source ↗
  • Illumina’s high-margin recurring model and tighter spending should keep the turnaround self-funding, giving the company room to invest in product performance and customer support without relying on external capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow rose to $1.079 billion in FY2026 from $837 million in FY2025 and $478 million in FY2024. Self-funding lets Illumina defend the platform and invest through a weak demand cycle; cash strain would make the turnaround more fragile.

    Watch: Customers demand extended payment terms or reduce consumable orders, weakening working-capital conversion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow rose to $1.079 billion in FY2026 from $837 million in FY2025 and $478 million in.

    Open source ↗
  • Illumina’s cash balance gives management time to execute, but the investment case still requires product-market momentum; cash used to fund operating drains or defensive price cuts would signal the platform is weakening.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Cash was $1.089 billion at the end of Q1 FY2027. Liquidity can extend the runway, but it cannot by itself restore growth or protect margins if the competitive position erodes.

    Watch: Cash is consumed by sustained operating weakness rather than invested in innovation or returned to shareholders.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash was $1.089 billion at the end of Q1 FY2027.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Illumina’s broad footprint in research, clinical, and applied sequencing-and-array workflows keeps the franchise embedded, but the business must turn that embedded position back into instrument upgrades and consumable pull-through rather than merely defending a flat base. If embedded workflows resume expanding, revenue growth can return; if labs keep spending cautiously or migrate new workflows elsewhere, Illumina becomes a slower-growth instrument franchise.

Illumina’s proprietary sequencing-and-array ecosystem retains enough workflow lock-in and reagent pull-through to prevent price-per-sample competition from collapsing GAAP gross margin. Gross margin is the clearest test of whether Illumina still has pricing power and consumable economics, not just installed equipment.

Management’s portfolio discipline and cost control can convert Illumina’s gross-profit pool into durable GAAP operating earnings rather than allowing restructuring, litigation, or strategic distractions to consume the franchise economics. A high-gross-margin platform only creates owner value if operating expenses and strategic decisions allow that margin to reach operating income.

Illumina’s high-margin recurring model and tighter spending should keep the turnaround self-funding, giving the company room to invest in product performance and customer support without relying on external capital. Self-funding lets Illumina defend the platform and invest through a weak demand cycle; cash strain would make the turnaround more fragile.

Illumina’s cash balance gives management time to execute, but the investment case still requires product-market momentum; cash used to fund operating drains or defensive price cuts would signal the platform is weakening. Liquidity can extend the runway, but it cannot by itself restore growth or protect margins if the competitive position erodes.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Illumina is a high-margin genomics platform whose stock depends on proving that its sequencing-and-array franchise is not merely durable, but capable of renewed growth after several years of revenue stagnation.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Illumina

Where the evidence on Illumina stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Illumina’s broad footprint in research, clinical, and applied sequencing-and-array workflows keeps the franchise embedded, but the business must turn that embedded position back into instrument upgrades and consumable pull-through rather than merely defending a flat base.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Illumina’s proprietary sequencing-and-array ecosystem retains enough workflow lock-in and reagent pull-through to prevent price-per-sample competition from collapsing GAAP gross margin.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management’s portfolio discipline and cost control can convert Illumina’s gross-profit pool into durable GAAP operating earnings rather than allowing restructuring, litigation, or strategic distractions to consume the franchise economics.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Illumina’s high-margin recurring model and tighter spending should keep the turnaround self-funding, giving the company room to invest in product performance and customer support without relying on external capital.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Illumina’s cash balance gives management time to execute, but the investment case still requires product-market momentum; cash used to fund operating drains or defensive price cuts would signal the platform is weakening.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Element Biosciences, MGI, Ultima Genomics, or other lower-cost short-read platforms win greenfield placements and begin displacing Illumina in validated production workflows.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Element Biosciences, MGI, or Ultima Genomics force broad price cuts in core short-read sequencing consumables.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Illumina resumes large acquisition or incubation projects that create integration, impairment, or regulatory risk similar to prior strategic overreach.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Illumina

Loading the break-condition record for Illumina.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Illumina filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-17: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Illumina filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Illumina filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-12: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Element Biosciences, MGI, Ultima Genomics, or other lower-cost short-read platforms win greenfield placements and begin displacing Illumina in validated production workflows.
  • Element Biosciences, MGI, or Ultima Genomics force broad price cuts in core short-read sequencing consumables.
  • Illumina resumes large acquisition or incubation projects that create integration, impairment, or regulatory risk similar to prior strategic overreach.
  • Customers demand extended payment terms or reduce consumable orders, weakening working-capital conversion.
  • Cash is consumed by sustained operating weakness rather than invested in innovation or returned to shareholders.

ILMN news

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Financial statements

ILMN income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

ILMN: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded ILMN?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in ILMN by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed ILMN trade
Which well-known investors own ILMN?
2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ILMN shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 1.2%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

ILMN in well-known investors’ portfolios

2 of 37 funds reported ILMN shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management1.2%$184M−7.5%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$2.2M−1.3%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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