MarineMax
HZONYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $52.77 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $52.76–$52.79 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 678.0K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 28 projected Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $21.42–$52.89 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own HZO if MarineMax converts scale in premium boat retailing, marina operations and superyacht services into durable cash flow by owning critical distribution (exclusive dealer rights, IGY marinas) and adjacent services (financing, brokerage, manufacturing, digital retail) that.
HZO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Exclusive dealer relationships (notably with Brunswick brands) plus the IGY marina footprint create a hard-to-replicate distribution ecosystem that preserves access to premium inventory and supports pricing/market share in core markets.HoldingMateriality: High
Revenue stayed above $2.3B in FY2025 despite a softer year (revenue = 2,309,288,000 USD). If true, MarineMax can defend market share and pricing versus smaller dealers and protect its retail margins; if false (manufacturers shift channels or end exclusives) retail revenue and margins could fall quickly.
Watch: A decision by Brunswick or another major supplier to expand direct-to-consumer sales or reassign dealer territories (manufacturer distribution shift).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue stayed above $2.3B in FY2025 despite a softer year (revenue = 2,309,288,000 USD).
Open source ↗Growth in recurring, higher-margin services (marina slip/storage, repairs, brokerage, charters) and finance/insurance will materially stabilize operating cash flow and reduce cyclicality from boat sales.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Operating cash flow turned positive in FY2025 (operating_cash_flow = 72,806,000 USD) despite lower operating income. If recurring services and finance scale, cash generation becomes less tied to big-ticket, lumpy retail transactions and valuation can re-rate; if marina utilization or service demand falls, cash flow reverts to retail cyclicality and valuation will be capped.
Watch: A sustained downturn in luxury leisure spending that reduces marina utilization, brokerage transactions and charter bookings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow turned positive in FY2025 (operating_cash_flow = 72,806,000 USD) despite lower operating income.
Open source ↗Acquisition-driven asset growth increases potential cross-sell and geographic scale, but the thesis requires that acquisitions accrete to operating income rather than producing recurring goodwill/impairment charges.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Total assets increased materially from 1,352,771,000 USD (FY2022) to 2,470,438,000 USD (FY2025), reflecting acquisitions and expansion noted in Business/MD&A. Successful M&A expands the moat and cross-sell; failed integration or impairments would destroy equity value and depress operating margins and reported earnings.
Watch: Goodwill impairments or repeated one-time charges from acquired businesses that reduce operating_income and net_income.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Total assets increased materially from 1,352,771,000 USD (FY2022) to 2,470,438,000 USD (FY2025), reflecting acquisitions and expansion noted in Business/MD&A.
Open source ↗Sustained shareholder upside requires a recovery of retail and consolidated margins — operating income must improve as sales mix shifts toward higher‑margin services and integration yields synergies.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
Operating income has declined from 200,802,000 USD in FY2023 to 34,017,000 USD in FY2025, showing the margin sensitivity to recent conditions. Without margin recovery, revenue alone won’t translate into free cash flow or EPS growth and the current valuation multiple appears unsupported.
Watch: Prolonged high interest rates and reduced discretionary spending that compress retail transaction margins and volumes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income has declined from 200,802,000 USD in FY2023 to 34,017,000 USD in FY2025, showing the margin sensitivity to recent.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Exclusive dealer relationships (notably with Brunswick brands) plus the IGY marina footprint create a hard-to-replicate distribution ecosystem that preserves access to premium inventory and supports pricing/market share in core markets. If true, MarineMax can defend market share and pricing versus smaller dealers and protect its retail margins; if false (manufacturers shift channels or end exclusives) retail revenue and margins could fall quickly.
Growth in recurring, higher-margin services (marina slip/storage, repairs, brokerage, charters) and finance/insurance will materially stabilize operating cash flow and reduce cyclicality from boat sales. If recurring services and finance scale, cash generation becomes less tied to big-ticket, lumpy retail transactions and valuation can re-rate; if marina utilization or service demand falls, cash flow reverts to retail cyclicality and valuation will be capped.
Acquisition-driven asset growth increases potential cross-sell and geographic scale, but the thesis requires that acquisitions accrete to operating income rather than producing recurring goodwill/impairment charges. Successful M&A expands the moat and cross-sell; failed integration or impairments would destroy equity value and depress operating margins and reported earnings.
Sustained shareholder upside requires a recovery of retail and consolidated margins — operating income must improve as sales mix shifts toward higher‑margin services and integration yields synergies. Without margin recovery, revenue alone won’t translate into free cash flow or EPS growth and the current valuation multiple appears unsupported.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
MarineMax converts scale in premium boat retailing, marina operations and superyacht services into durable cash flow by owning critical distribution (exclusive dealer rights, IGY marinas) and adjacent services (financing, brokerage, manufacturing, digital retail) that.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Marinemax
Where the evidence on Marinemax disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 1 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Exclusive dealer relationships (notably with Brunswick brands) plus the IGY marina footprint create a hard-to-replicate distribution ecosystem that preserves access to premium inventory and supports pricing/market share in core markets.
Growth in recurring, higher-margin services (marina slip/storage, repairs, brokerage, charters) and finance/insurance will materially stabilize operating cash flow and reduce cyclicality from boat sales.
Acquisition-driven asset growth increases potential cross-sell and geographic scale, but the thesis requires that acquisitions accrete to operating income rather than producing recurring goodwill/impairment charges.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Sustained shareholder upside requires a recovery of retail and consolidated margins — operating income must improve as sales mix shifts toward higher‑margin services and integration yields synergies.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Marinemax’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Marinemax, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Marinemax.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Marinemax filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Marinemax filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Marinemax filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-10: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A decision by Brunswick or another major supplier to expand direct-to-consumer sales or reassign dealer territories (manufacturer distribution shift).
- A sustained downturn in luxury leisure spending that reduces marina utilization, brokerage transactions and charter bookings.
- Goodwill impairments or repeated one-time charges from acquired businesses that reduce operating_income and net_income.
- Prolonged high interest rates and reduced discretionary spending that compress retail transaction margins and volumes.
HZO news
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Financial statements
HZO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
HZO: quick answers
- When does Marinemax (HZO) report earnings next?
- Marinemax's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is HZO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 1.9M HZO shares were sold short, 8.41% of its shares outstanding, down 7.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. HZO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded HZO?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in HZO by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed HZO trade