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Hub Group

HUBGNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$24.39
−$0.06 (−0.25%)Today 1M −5.09%
After hours$24.390.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$24.45
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$24.06–$24.73
Regular-session low and high so far today.
561.2K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$23.90–$53.26
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own HUBG if Hub Group converts a large, asset-backed intermodal network plus an expanding asset-light logistics business into durable customer relationships, which should generate recurring revenue, operating leverage and cash flow as freight volumes and pricing normalize.

What must remain true for the stock to work.Explore the thesis

HUBG price history

Latest price$24.39Today−$0.06 (-0.25%)
HUBG -8.07%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Hub’s owned intermodal assets and dedicated trucking create customer stickiness and the capacity to recover pricing and operating income as volumes normalize.HoldingMateriality: High

    OperatingIncomeLoss = 474,721,000 (2022) -> 212,231,000 (2023) -> 140,291,000 (2024) (shows cyclicality and potential for rebound). If true, operating leverage will restore operating income and cash flow; if false, margin deterioration will persist despite asset ownership.

    Watch: A large customer (>10% of revenue) reduces volumes or moves to a competitor or in-house logistics.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    OperatingIncomeLoss = 474,721,000 (2022) -> 212,231,000 (2023) -> 140,291,000 (2024) (shows cyclicality and potential for rebound).

    Open source ↗
  • Growth and integration of Logistics (brokerage, final-mile) and recent acquisitions (FAFM, EASO stake) will materially improve margin resilience and free up capital intensity, raising operating cash flow conversion.HoldingMateriality: High

    NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities = 458,163,000 (2022) -> 422,158,000 (2023) -> 194,419,000 (2024) (shows operating cash flow sensitivity and room for improved conversion). If Logistics becomes a larger, higher-converting portion of revenue, Hub’s earnings and FCF will be less cyclical and more predictable; failure to integrate will leave cash returns depressed.

    Watch: Final-mile competition (nationals and regional providers) compresses margins and integration fails to deliver synergies.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities = 458,163,000 (2022) -> 422,158,000 (2023) -> 194,419,000 (2024) (shows operating cash flow sensitivity and room for improved conversion).

    Open source ↗
  • Hub’s top-line and cash flow are materially cyclical and will only rebound materially if macro drivers — retail inventory rebuilding or tighter truck/rail capacity — reverse.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Revenue = 5,340,490,000 (2022) -> 4,202,585,000 (2023) -> 3,946,390,000 (2024) (large decline tied to freight cycle). Owners must monitor macro freight conditions; absent a market-wide swing, Hub’s revenue and cash flow will remain under pressure despite internal improvements.

    Watch: Structural growth in e-commerce/final-mile demand or successful logistics expansion could decouple Hub from traditional freight cycles.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue = 5,340,490,000 (2022) -> 4,202,585,000 (2023) -> 3,946,390,000 (2024) (large decline tied to freight cycle).

    Open source ↗
  • Customer concentration is a structural risk: loss or material volume reduction from a single large customer (>10% of revenue) would materially reduce revenue and operating income.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    MD&A: Hub's top 50 customers represent approximately 68% of revenue for fiscal 2024 and one customer accounted for more than 10% of annual revenue in 2024. A single contract loss could cause outsized earnings volatility and impair cash flow, making Hub’s returns riskier than peers with more dispersed customers.

    Watch: Dedicated contracts and long-term service arrangements reduce probability of abrupt loss.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    MD&A: Hub's top 50 customers represent approximately 68% of revenue for fiscal 2024 and one customer accounted for more than.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Hub’s owned intermodal assets and dedicated trucking create customer stickiness and the capacity to recover pricing and operating income as volumes normalize. If true, operating leverage will restore operating income and cash flow; if false, margin deterioration will persist despite asset ownership.

Growth and integration of Logistics (brokerage, final-mile) and recent acquisitions (FAFM, EASO stake) will materially improve margin resilience and free up capital intensity, raising operating cash flow conversion. If Logistics becomes a larger, higher-converting portion of revenue, Hub’s earnings and FCF will be less cyclical and more predictable; failure to integrate will leave cash returns depressed.

Hub’s top-line and cash flow are materially cyclical and will only rebound materially if macro drivers — retail inventory rebuilding or tighter truck/rail capacity — reverse. Owners must monitor macro freight conditions; absent a market-wide swing, Hub’s revenue and cash flow will remain under pressure despite internal improvements.

Customer concentration is a structural risk: loss or material volume reduction from a single large customer (>10% of revenue) would materially reduce revenue and operating income. A single contract loss could cause outsized earnings volatility and impair cash flow, making Hub’s returns riskier than peers with more dispersed customers.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Hub Group converts a large, asset-backed intermodal network plus an expanding asset-light logistics business into durable customer relationships, which should generate recurring revenue, operating leverage and cash flow as freight volumes and pricing normalize.

Evidence assessed Nov 10, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Hub Group

Where the evidence on Hub Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Hub’s owned intermodal assets and dedicated trucking create customer stickiness and the capacity to recover pricing and operating income as volumes normalize.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Growth and integration of Logistics (brokerage, final-mile) and recent acquisitions (FAFM, EASO stake) will materially improve margin resilience and free up capital intensity, raising operating cash flow conversion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Hub’s top-line and cash flow are materially cyclical and will only rebound materially if macro drivers — retail inventory rebuilding or tighter truck/rail capacity — reverse.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Customer concentration is a structural risk: loss or material volume reduction from a single large customer (>10% of revenue) would materially reduce revenue and operating income.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A large customer (>10% of revenue) reduces volumes or moves to a competitor or in-house logistics.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Final-mile competition (nationals and regional providers) compresses margins and integration fails to deliver synergies.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Structural growth in e-commerce/final-mile demand or successful logistics expansion could decouple Hub from traditional freight cycles.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Hub Group

Loading the break-condition record for Hub Group.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Hub Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-02: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Delisting notice or listing-rule failure.

    Hub Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-17: Delisting notice or listing-rule failure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Hub Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-15: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A large customer (>10% of revenue) reduces volumes or moves to a competitor or in-house logistics.
  • Final-mile competition (nationals and regional providers) compresses margins and integration fails to deliver synergies.
  • Structural growth in e-commerce/final-mile demand or successful logistics expansion could decouple Hub from traditional freight cycles.
  • Dedicated contracts and long-term service arrangements reduce probability of abrupt loss.

HUBG news

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Financial statements

HUBG income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

HUBG: quick answers

Which well-known investors own HUBG?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported HUBG shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

HUBG in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported HUBG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
George SorosSoros Fund Management0.01%$1.2MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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