Hertz Global Holdings
HTZWWUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- — Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- — Regular-session low and high so far today.
- — Regular-session shares traded.
- Feb 25 projected Projected for 2027-02-25 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- — 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own HTZWW if HTZWW is a levered turnaround warrant on Hertz proving that fleet economics, residual values, and financing access can recover before the capital structure absorbs the upside.
HTZWW price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Hertz’s core turnaround driver is restoring fleet economics—vehicle acquisition, depreciation, maintenance, utilization, and disposal must stop overwhelming rental demand so the rental platform can again earn GAAP profits.HoldingMateriality: High
FY2025 annual GAAP net loss narrowed to $747 million from a FY2024 annual GAAP net loss of $2.862 billion, suggesting the worst fleet-cost damage may be moderating. If fleet economics normalize, operating leverage can flow to equity; if residual-value losses persist, revenue will not translate into warrant value.
Watch: A renewed fall in used-car prices, especially from OEM price cuts or excess supply, would keep depreciation and disposal losses elevated before GAAP profit recovers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 annual GAAP net loss narrowed to $747 million from a FY2024 annual GAAP net loss of $2.862 billion, suggesting.
Open source ↗Hertz’s brand and rental network must remain important enough to airport, leisure, corporate, and replacement renters that fleet rationalization does not become permanent share loss to Enterprise, Avis Budget, rideshare, or direct mobility substitutes.HoldingMateriality: High
FY2025 annual GAAP revenue was $8.504 billion, still above FY2021 annual GAAP revenue of $7.336 billion. A stable demand base gives Hertz room to fix fleet costs; structural demand loss would make the turnaround a shrinking-asset liquidation.
Watch: Corporate travel accounts or insurance-replacement partners shifting volume to Enterprise or Avis Budget would signal the franchise is losing relevance before revenue fully rolls over.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 annual GAAP revenue was $8.504 billion, still above FY2021 annual GAAP revenue of $7.336 billion.
Open source ↗Hertz can execute a fleet turnaround only if its asset-backed rental model keeps converting rentals into cash and financing markets remain willing to fund the vehicle base despite GAAP losses.HoldingMateriality: Medium
FY2025 annual GAAP operating cash flow was positive at $1.625 billion despite a GAAP net loss. Positive cash generation buys time; loss of funding or liquidity would force dilutive capital raising, asset sales, or restructuring before the operating thesis can mature.
Watch: ABS or fleet-financing lenders tightening advance rates, raising costs, or requiring more collateral would break the cash bridge before operating results recover.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 annual GAAP operating cash flow was positive at $1.625 billion despite a GAAP net loss.
Open source ↗Because liabilities now exceed recorded assets, HTZWW needs a real common-equity rebuild—not just stable revenue—before the warrant can have durable intrinsic value.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
FY2025 year-end GAAP stockholders’ equity was negative $459 million. The warrant is behind the operating business and balance-sheet claims; if equity value is not rebuilt, operating improvement may accrue to creditors rather than warrant holders.
Watch: A sustained return to GAAP profitability that rebuilds retained earnings would weaken the negative-equity risk.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 year-end GAAP stockholders’ equity was negative $459 million.
Open source ↗The turnaround depends on disciplined fleet capacity: Hertz must keep the vehicle base matched to profitable demand, reducing residual-value exposure without ceding so much availability that the rental franchise erodes.HoldingMateriality: Medium
FY2025 year-end GAAP assets of $22.311 billion were below FY2023 year-end GAAP assets of $24.605 billion, consistent with some reduction in capital intensity versus the prior peak. Right-sizing can improve returns on assets; over-fleeting or under-fleeting would either recreate losses or damage revenue capacity.
Watch: A travel rebound met with insufficient fleet availability would send customers to Enterprise, Avis Budget, or local alternatives before revenue fully reflects the lost share.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 year-end GAAP assets of $22.311 billion were below FY2023 year-end GAAP assets of $24.605 billion, consistent with some reduction.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Hertz’s core turnaround driver is restoring fleet economics—vehicle acquisition, depreciation, maintenance, utilization, and disposal must stop overwhelming rental demand so the rental platform can again earn GAAP profits. If fleet economics normalize, operating leverage can flow to equity; if residual-value losses persist, revenue will not translate into warrant value.
Hertz’s brand and rental network must remain important enough to airport, leisure, corporate, and replacement renters that fleet rationalization does not become permanent share loss to Enterprise, Avis Budget, rideshare, or direct mobility substitutes. A stable demand base gives Hertz room to fix fleet costs; structural demand loss would make the turnaround a shrinking-asset liquidation.
Hertz can execute a fleet turnaround only if its asset-backed rental model keeps converting rentals into cash and financing markets remain willing to fund the vehicle base despite GAAP losses. Positive cash generation buys time; loss of funding or liquidity would force dilutive capital raising, asset sales, or restructuring before the operating thesis can mature.
Because liabilities now exceed recorded assets, HTZWW needs a real common-equity rebuild—not just stable revenue—before the warrant can have durable intrinsic value. The warrant is behind the operating business and balance-sheet claims; if equity value is not rebuilt, operating improvement may accrue to creditors rather than warrant holders.
The turnaround depends on disciplined fleet capacity: Hertz must keep the vehicle base matched to profitable demand, reducing residual-value exposure without ceding so much availability that the rental franchise erodes. Right-sizing can improve returns on assets; over-fleeting or under-fleeting would either recreate losses or damage revenue capacity.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
HTZWW is a levered turnaround warrant on Hertz proving that fleet economics, residual values, and financing access can recover before the capital structure absorbs the upside.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Hertz Global Holdings
Where the evidence on Hertz Global Holdings stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 4 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Hertz’s core turnaround driver is restoring fleet economics—vehicle acquisition, depreciation, maintenance, utilization, and disposal must stop overwhelming rental demand so the rental platform can again earn GAAP profits.
Hertz’s brand and rental network must remain important enough to airport, leisure, corporate, and replacement renters that fleet rationalization does not become permanent share loss to Enterprise, Avis Budget, rideshare, or direct mobility substitutes.
Hertz can execute a fleet turnaround only if its asset-backed rental model keeps converting rentals into cash and financing markets remain willing to fund the vehicle base despite GAAP losses.
Because liabilities now exceed recorded assets, HTZWW needs a real common-equity rebuild—not just stable revenue—before the warrant can have durable intrinsic value.
The turnaround depends on disciplined fleet capacity: Hertz must keep the vehicle base matched to profitable demand, reducing residual-value exposure without ceding so much availability that the rental franchise erodes.
Bear case: what would count against it
A renewed fall in used-car prices, especially from OEM price cuts or excess supply, would keep depreciation and disposal losses elevated before GAAP profit recovers.
Corporate travel accounts or insurance-replacement partners shifting volume to Enterprise or Avis Budget would signal the franchise is losing relevance before revenue fully rolls over.
ABS or fleet-financing lenders tightening advance rates, raising costs, or requiring more collateral would break the cash bridge before operating results recover.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Hertz Global Holdings’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Hertz Global Holdings, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Hertz Global Holdings.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Hertz Global Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-13: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Hertz Global Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-01: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Hertz Global Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-10: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A renewed fall in used-car prices, especially from OEM price cuts or excess supply, would keep depreciation and disposal losses elevated before GAAP profit recovers.
- Corporate travel accounts or insurance-replacement partners shifting volume to Enterprise or Avis Budget would signal the franchise is losing relevance before revenue fully rolls over.
- ABS or fleet-financing lenders tightening advance rates, raising costs, or requiring more collateral would break the cash bridge before operating results recover.
- A sustained return to GAAP profitability that rebuilds retained earnings would weaken the negative-equity risk.
- A travel rebound met with insufficient fleet availability would send customers to Enterprise, Avis Budget, or local alternatives before revenue fully reflects the lost share.
HTZWW news
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Financial statements
HTZWW income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
HTZWW: quick answers
- When does Hertz Global Holdings (HTZWW) report earnings next?
- Hertz Global Holdings's next results are projected for February 25, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is HTZWW's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 806,983 HTZWW shares were sold short, down 0.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 12 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. HTZWW short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded HTZWW?
- 1 trade in HTZWW has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed HTZWW trade
- Which well-known investors own HTZWW?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported HTZWW shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Third Point (Dan Loeb), 0.1%; Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
HTZWW in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported HTZWW shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan LoebThird Point | 0.09% | $4.3M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 0.00% | $511K | No change | Q2 2026 |