H2O America

HTONASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$61.26
−$0.79 (−1.27%)Today 1M +6.10%
After hours$61.260.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$62.05
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$61.03–$62.27
Regular-session low and high so far today.
435.0K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 25 projected
Projected for 2027-01-25 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$43.75–$67.09
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own HTO if H2O America is a regulated water-utility compounding story: value creation depends on turning essential-service demand and infrastructure investment into recoverable rate base without regulatory lag, financing strain, or margin erosion overwhelming earnings per share.

HTO price history

Latest price$61.26Today−$0.79 (-1.27%)
HTO +4.56%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Essential water-service obligations and infrastructure needs keep creating investable rate-base opportunities, and regulators allow enough recovery for those investments to convert into higher revenue rather than stranded capital.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    FY2025 annual GAAP revenue was $800.6 million, up from $573.7 million in FY2021. If this holds, asset growth is value-accretive; if it breaks, capital spending becomes a drag on returns and leverage.

    Watch: State utility commissions deny or materially delay rate increases needed to recover water-system investments.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 annual GAAP revenue was $800.6 million, up from $573.7 million in FY2021.

    Open source ↗
  • The local monopoly characteristics of water supply protect H2O America from normal competitive churn, so the main threat is regulatory disallowance rather than customer switching.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    The company is classified in SEC SIC 4941, Water Supply, consistent with a regulated utility business rather than a competitive product market. A durable local franchise supports predictable revenue and cash flow; losing that protection would make the business materially riskier.

    Watch: Municipal governments pursue condemnation or buyout of privately owned water systems.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company is classified in SEC SIC 4941, Water Supply, consistent with a regulated utility business rather than a competitive.

    Open source ↗
  • H2O America’s operating capability must keep maintenance, labor, water-supply, and compliance costs recoverable through rates quickly enough to preserve regulated utility margins.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 annual GAAP operating income was $177.5 million, up from $111.2 million in FY2021. Revenue growth only creates shareholder value if cost inflation and regulatory lag do not compress operating income.

    Watch: Drought, water-source scarcity, treatment mandates, or PFAS-related compliance costs rise faster than approved rates.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 annual GAAP operating income was $177.5 million, up from $111.2 million in FY2021.

    Open source ↗
  • Because regulated water utilities require continuous infrastructure investment, H2O America’s equity value depends on maintaining access to affordable debt and equity capital while keeping leverage acceptable to regulators and creditors.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 liabilities were $3.61 billion against $5.15 billion of assets, showing the business is materially debt-funded. If financing remains available, the company can grow rate base; if capital costs or leverage rise too far, growth becomes dilutive or value-destructive.

    Watch: Higher interest rates or credit spread widening raise the cost of funding above allowed regulatory returns.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 liabilities were $3.61 billion against $5.15 billion of assets, showing the business is materially debt-funded.

    Open source ↗
  • The regulated model must keep producing operating cash flow that grows with the asset base, because internally generated cash reduces dependence on external capital and supports dividends, investment, and balance-sheet resilience.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 annual GAAP operating cash flow was $244.8 million, up from $166.2 million in FY2022. Strong cash conversion makes rate-base growth financeable; weak cash conversion would expose shareholders to debt pressure or dilution.

    Watch: Working-capital needs, storm costs, drought costs, or delayed customer collections consume cash before recovery.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 annual GAAP operating cash flow was $244.8 million, up from $166.2 million in FY2022.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Essential water-service obligations and infrastructure needs keep creating investable rate-base opportunities, and regulators allow enough recovery for those investments to convert into higher revenue rather than stranded capital. If this holds, asset growth is value-accretive; if it breaks, capital spending becomes a drag on returns and leverage.

The local monopoly characteristics of water supply protect H2O America from normal competitive churn, so the main threat is regulatory disallowance rather than customer switching. A durable local franchise supports predictable revenue and cash flow; losing that protection would make the business materially riskier.

H2O America’s operating capability must keep maintenance, labor, water-supply, and compliance costs recoverable through rates quickly enough to preserve regulated utility margins. Revenue growth only creates shareholder value if cost inflation and regulatory lag do not compress operating income.

Because regulated water utilities require continuous infrastructure investment, H2O America’s equity value depends on maintaining access to affordable debt and equity capital while keeping leverage acceptable to regulators and creditors. If financing remains available, the company can grow rate base; if capital costs or leverage rise too far, growth becomes dilutive or value-destructive.

The regulated model must keep producing operating cash flow that grows with the asset base, because internally generated cash reduces dependence on external capital and supports dividends, investment, and balance-sheet resilience. Strong cash conversion makes rate-base growth financeable; weak cash conversion would expose shareholders to debt pressure or dilution.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

H2O America is a regulated water-utility compounding story: value creation depends on turning essential-service demand and infrastructure investment into recoverable rate base without regulatory lag, financing strain, or margin erosion overwhelming earnings per share.

Evidence assessed Oct 26, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for H2O America

Where the evidence on H2O America stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 26, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Essential water-service obligations and infrastructure needs keep creating investable rate-base opportunities, and regulators allow enough recovery for those investments to convert into higher revenue rather than stranded capital.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The local monopoly characteristics of water supply protect H2O America from normal competitive churn, so the main threat is regulatory disallowance rather than customer switching.

    sec.gov ↗

  • H2O America’s operating capability must keep maintenance, labor, water-supply, and compliance costs recoverable through rates quickly enough to preserve regulated utility margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Because regulated water utilities require continuous infrastructure investment, H2O America’s equity value depends on maintaining access to affordable debt and equity capital while keeping leverage acceptable to regulators and creditors.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The regulated model must keep producing operating cash flow that grows with the asset base, because internally generated cash reduces dependence on external capital and supports dividends, investment, and balance-sheet resilience.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • State utility commissions deny or materially delay rate increases needed to recover water-system investments.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Municipal governments pursue condemnation or buyout of privately owned water systems.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Drought, water-source scarcity, treatment mandates, or PFAS-related compliance costs rise faster than approved rates.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · H2O America

No break has crossed H2O America’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets.

    H2O America filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-01: Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    H2O America filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    H2O America filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-12: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • State utility commissions deny or materially delay rate increases needed to recover water-system investments.
  • Municipal governments pursue condemnation or buyout of privately owned water systems.
  • Drought, water-source scarcity, treatment mandates, or PFAS-related compliance costs rise faster than approved rates.
  • Higher interest rates or credit spread widening raise the cost of funding above allowed regulatory returns.
  • Working-capital needs, storm costs, drought costs, or delayed customer collections consume cash before recovery.

HTO news

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Financial statements

HTO income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

HTO: quick answers

When does H2O America (HTO) report earnings next?
H2O America's next results are projected for January 25, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 26, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is HTO's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 2.8M HTO shares were sold short, up 45.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. HTO short interest history
Which well-known investors own HTO?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported HTO shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.9%. Fund portfolios

HTO in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported HTO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
George SorosSoros Fund Management0.94%$76.2M+2.1%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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