Harmonic
HLITNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $9.99 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $10.16–$10.56 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 913.0K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 18 projected Projected for 2027-02-18 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $8.47–$17.68 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own HLIT if Harmonic can turn its cOS software-led broadband products and a DOCSIS/DAA upgrade cycle into higher-margin, recurring SaaS revenue and strong cash generation, provided it converts large MSO projects and completes the Video disposition.
HLIT price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Adoption of Harmonic's cOS and higher SaaS/service mix will be the primary driver of improved cash conversion and margin stability, as recurring fees replace one-off appliance volatility.HoldingMateriality: High
Operating cash flow rose to $107,966,000 in FY2025 despite a lower reported revenue base, suggesting better cash conversion (fundamentals.operating_cash_flow, period_end 2025-12-31). If true, the business becomes less cyclical and more valuable (higher margins, more predictable cash flow); if false, revenue will remain lumpy and the premium multiple is unjustified.
Watch: Major MSOs delay capital upgrade cycles or shift spend to FTTH rather than upgrading DOCSIS, reducing appliance-to-SaaS conversion opportunities.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow rose to $107,966,000 in FY2025 despite a lower reported revenue base, suggesting better cash conversion (fundamentals.operating_cash_flow, period_end.
Open source ↗Closing the Put Option sale of the Video business for ~$145M will materially strengthen the balance sheet and provide capital optionality to either invest in SaaS expansion or reduce risk.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The company entered a Put Option Agreement to sell the Video business for a purchase price of $145 million in cash and classified the Video business as discontinued operations (business_text. Proceeds would reduce execution risk, provide working capital for SaaS initiatives, and make cash flow improvements more durable; if the sale fails or is materially reduced, balance-sheet risk and management distraction persist.
Watch: The Buyer (Leone Media/MediaKind) fails to consummate the transaction, or the purchase price is reduced materially due to working capital/debt adjustments.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The company entered a Put Option Agreement to sell the Video business for a purchase price of $145 million in.
Open source ↗The DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle and accelerating interest in Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) will produce multi-year demand for Harmonic's broadband solutions, re-accelerating appliance/integration revenue when MSOs compete with fiber.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Business text highlights accelerating adoption of DOCSIS 4.0 and increasing interest in DAA, positioning these as demand drivers (business_text). A durable DOCSIS/DAA upgrade wave would drive larger project wins, validate the cOS strategy and provide back-end recurring support/subscription opportunities; if the cycle doesn't materialize, appliance revenue will stay depressed.
Watch: Operators accelerate FTTH deployments instead of upgrading existing cable plants, bypassing a DOCSIS-led upgrade cycle.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business text highlights accelerating adoption of DOCSIS 4.0 and increasing interest in DAA, positioning these as demand drivers (business_text).
Open source ↗Harmonic's ability to sustain pricing power and margins depends on securing partnerships and MSO design-wins; failure to form alliances or losing headend conversions to larger incumbents will compress operating income and margins.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A acknowledges the need to build alliances with other equipment manufacturers and suppliers and warns of taking lower-margin orders to diversify customer base (mdna_text). If Harmonic cannot obtain the key system integrator/MSO reference accounts or partner with server/COTS/cloud suppliers, competition will commoditize its offering and margins will fall; if it does, it retains control of the software layer and associated recurring fees.
Watch: A bundled offer from a larger incumbent (e.g., CommScope/Cisco/Technicolor) that includes hardware and software at a price MSOs prefer, capturing major design wins.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A acknowledges the need to build alliances with other equipment manufacturers and suppliers and warns of taking lower-margin orders to.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Adoption of Harmonic's cOS and higher SaaS/service mix will be the primary driver of improved cash conversion and margin stability, as recurring fees replace one-off appliance volatility. If true, the business becomes less cyclical and more valuable (higher margins, more predictable cash flow); if false, revenue will remain lumpy and the premium multiple is unjustified.
Closing the Put Option sale of the Video business for ~$145M will materially strengthen the balance sheet and provide capital optionality to either invest in SaaS expansion or reduce risk. Proceeds would reduce execution risk, provide working capital for SaaS initiatives, and make cash flow improvements more durable; if the sale fails or is materially reduced, balance-sheet risk and management distraction persist.
The DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle and accelerating interest in Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) will produce multi-year demand for Harmonic's broadband solutions, re-accelerating appliance/integration revenue when MSOs compete with fiber. A durable DOCSIS/DAA upgrade wave would drive larger project wins, validate the cOS strategy and provide back-end recurring support/subscription opportunities; if the cycle doesn't materialize, appliance revenue will stay depressed.
Harmonic's ability to sustain pricing power and margins depends on securing partnerships and MSO design-wins; failure to form alliances or losing headend conversions to larger incumbents will compress operating income and margins. If Harmonic cannot obtain the key system integrator/MSO reference accounts or partner with server/COTS/cloud suppliers, competition will commoditize its offering and margins will fall; if it does, it retains control of the software layer and associated recurring fees.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Harmonic can turn its cOS software-led broadband products and a DOCSIS/DAA upgrade cycle into higher-margin, recurring SaaS revenue and strong cash generation, provided it converts large MSO projects and completes the Video disposition.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Harmonic
Where the evidence on Harmonic stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Adoption of Harmonic's cOS and higher SaaS/service mix will be the primary driver of improved cash conversion and margin stability, as recurring fees replace one-off appliance volatility.
Closing the Put Option sale of the Video business for ~$145M will materially strengthen the balance sheet and provide capital optionality to either invest in SaaS expansion or reduce risk.
The DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle and accelerating interest in Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) will produce multi-year demand for Harmonic's broadband solutions, re-accelerating appliance/integration revenue when MSOs compete with fiber.
Harmonic's ability to sustain pricing power and margins depends on securing partnerships and MSO design-wins; failure to form alliances or losing headend conversions to larger incumbents will compress operating income and margins.
Bear case: what would count against it
Major MSOs delay capital upgrade cycles or shift spend to FTTH rather than upgrading DOCSIS, reducing appliance-to-SaaS conversion opportunities.
The Buyer (Leone Media/MediaKind) fails to consummate the transaction, or the purchase price is reduced materially due to working capital/debt adjustments.
Operators accelerate FTTH deployments instead of upgrading existing cable plants, bypassing a DOCSIS-led upgrade cycle.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Harmonic
No break has crossed Harmonic’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Harmonic filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-02: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Harmonic filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-12: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedCompleted an acquisition or disposition of assets.
Harmonic filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-17: Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Major MSOs delay capital upgrade cycles or shift spend to FTTH rather than upgrading DOCSIS, reducing appliance-to-SaaS conversion opportunities.
- The Buyer (Leone Media/MediaKind) fails to consummate the transaction, or the purchase price is reduced materially due to working capital/debt adjustments.
- Operators accelerate FTTH deployments instead of upgrading existing cable plants, bypassing a DOCSIS-led upgrade cycle.
- A bundled offer from a larger incumbent (e.g., CommScope/Cisco/Technicolor) that includes hardware and software at a price MSOs prefer, capturing major design wins.
HLIT news
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Financial statements
HLIT income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
HLIT: quick answers
- When does Harmonic (HLIT) report earnings next?
- Harmonic's next results are projected for February 18, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 2, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is HLIT's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 6.8M HLIT shares were sold short, 6.29% of its shares outstanding, down 2.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. HLIT short interest history