HIVE Digital Technologies

HIVENASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the HIVE thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$1.75
+$0.03 (+1.74%)Today 1M −31.20%
After hours$1.72−1.71%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$1.72
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$1.75–$1.86
Regular-session low and high so far today.
10.0M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$1.58–$5.34
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own HIVE if HIVE is an operating-leverage bet that owned digital-infrastructure capacity can be filled with profitable Bitcoin-mining and AI/HPC compute demand rather than merely producing larger commodity-cycle losses.

HIVE price history

Latest price$1.75Today+$0.03 (+1.74%)
HIVE -27.08%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Owned compute capacity remains scarce and usable enough that HIVE can keep converting deployed mining and digital-infrastructure assets into customer or network demand.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $297.8 million in FY2026 from $115.3 million in FY2025 and $114.5 million in FY2024. If utilization demand holds, HIVE has a path to scale economics; if demand shifts to cheaper competitors, added assets become stranded capacity.

    Watch: Marathon Digital, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Bitdeer, or Hut 8 add lower-cost mining capacity, raising network difficulty and reducing HIVE’s realized hashprice before revenue rolls over.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $297.8 million in FY2026 from $115.3 million in FY2025 and $114.5 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Low-cost power access and fleet efficiency must turn incremental compute revenue into positive GAAP gross profit rather than larger loss-making throughput.WeakeningMateriality: High

    The business reached $297.8 million of GAAP annual revenue in FY2026, creating a larger base over which site and operating efficiencies could matter. Revenue growth only creates owner value if power, depreciation, hosting, and hardware costs leave a spread after direct costs.

    Watch: Electricity contracts in Canada, Sweden, or Paraguay reprice upward or become less reliable, erasing the intended low-cost-power advantage before margin reports deteriorate.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The business reached $297.8 million of GAAP annual revenue in FY2026, creating a larger base over which site and operating.

    Open source ↗
  • Realized mining and compute economics, together with working-capital discipline, keep HIVE operating-cash-flow positive despite GAAP earnings volatility.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow increased to $62.3 million in FY2026 from $16.6 million in FY2025 and $9.6 million in FY2024. Positive operating cash flow gives HIVE more flexibility to fund equipment cycles and survive crypto downturns; if it fails, shareholders face financing risk.

    Watch: A sharp fall in Bitcoin hashprice reduces coin monetization before cash flow turns negative.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow increased to $62.3 million in FY2026 from $16.6 million in FY2025 and $9.6 million in.

    Open source ↗
  • A lightly levered balance sheet gives HIVE the option to endure crypto drawdowns and buy or deploy compute assets when weaker operators are constrained.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Total liabilities were $109.8 million at March 31, 2026 versus total assets of $639.1 million and stockholders’ equity of $529.4 million. Balance-sheet flexibility can turn industry cyclicality into an advantage; if leverage rises, HIVE becomes a forced seller or diluter in downturns.

    Watch: Vendor financing, power-project debt, or equipment leases increase fixed claims just as Bitcoin economics weaken.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Total liabilities were $109.8 million at March 31, 2026 versus total assets of $639.1 million and stockholders’ equity of $529.4.

    Open source ↗
  • HIVE can scale digital-infrastructure revenue without building a large services organization only if the business remains standardized, automated, and asset-operated rather than customized enterprise cloud.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    The company reported 29 employees as of March 31, 2026. A lean operating model can create strong operating leverage, but a pivot to service-heavy AI/HPC would require more people, systems, and support cost.

    Watch: Enterprise AI/HPC customers require sales engineering, uptime guarantees, security, compliance, and support functions that cannot be handled by a 29-person organization.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company reported 29 employees as of March 31, 2026.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Owned compute capacity remains scarce and usable enough that HIVE can keep converting deployed mining and digital-infrastructure assets into customer or network demand. If utilization demand holds, HIVE has a path to scale economics; if demand shifts to cheaper competitors, added assets become stranded capacity.

Low-cost power access and fleet efficiency must turn incremental compute revenue into positive GAAP gross profit rather than larger loss-making throughput. Revenue growth only creates owner value if power, depreciation, hosting, and hardware costs leave a spread after direct costs.

Realized mining and compute economics, together with working-capital discipline, keep HIVE operating-cash-flow positive despite GAAP earnings volatility. Positive operating cash flow gives HIVE more flexibility to fund equipment cycles and survive crypto downturns; if it fails, shareholders face financing risk.

A lightly levered balance sheet gives HIVE the option to endure crypto drawdowns and buy or deploy compute assets when weaker operators are constrained. Balance-sheet flexibility can turn industry cyclicality into an advantage; if leverage rises, HIVE becomes a forced seller or diluter in downturns.

HIVE can scale digital-infrastructure revenue without building a large services organization only if the business remains standardized, automated, and asset-operated rather than customized enterprise cloud. A lean operating model can create strong operating leverage, but a pivot to service-heavy AI/HPC would require more people, systems, and support cost.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

HIVE is an operating-leverage bet that owned digital-infrastructure capacity can be filled with profitable Bitcoin-mining and AI/HPC compute demand rather than merely producing larger commodity-cycle losses.

Evidence assessed Nov 10, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for HIVE Digital Technologies

Where the evidence on HIVE Digital Technologies disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Owned compute capacity remains scarce and usable enough that HIVE can keep converting deployed mining and digital-infrastructure assets into customer or network demand.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Realized mining and compute economics, together with working-capital discipline, keep HIVE operating-cash-flow positive despite GAAP earnings volatility.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A lightly levered balance sheet gives HIVE the option to endure crypto drawdowns and buy or deploy compute assets when weaker operators are constrained.

    sec.gov ↗

  • HIVE can scale digital-infrastructure revenue without building a large services organization only if the business remains standardized, automated, and asset-operated rather than customized enterprise cloud.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Low-cost power access and fleet efficiency must turn incremental compute revenue into positive GAAP gross profit rather than larger loss-making throughput.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · HIVE Digital Technologies

Loading the break-condition record for HIVE Digital Technologies.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    HIVE Digital Technologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-10: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    HIVE Digital Technologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    HIVE Digital Technologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-17: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Marathon Digital, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Bitdeer, or Hut 8 add lower-cost mining capacity, raising network difficulty and reducing HIVE’s realized hashprice before revenue rolls over.
  • Electricity contracts in Canada, Sweden, or Paraguay reprice upward or become less reliable, erasing the intended low-cost-power advantage before margin reports deteriorate.
  • A sharp fall in Bitcoin hashprice reduces coin monetization before cash flow turns negative.
  • Vendor financing, power-project debt, or equipment leases increase fixed claims just as Bitcoin economics weaken.
  • Enterprise AI/HPC customers require sales engineering, uptime guarantees, security, compliance, and support functions that cannot be handled by a 29-person organization.

HIVE news

Loading headlines…

Financial statements

HIVE income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

HIVE: quick answers

Which well-known investors own HIVE?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported HIVE shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner), 0.2%. Fund portfolios

HIVE in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported HIVE shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Leopold AschenbrennerSituational Awareness0.16%$33.2M+169.3%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.