Hagerty

HGTYNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$16.04
−$0.90 (−5.31%)Today 1M +19.21%
After hours$16.040.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$16.94
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$15.60–$16.68
Regular-session low and high so far today.
9.6M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$9.36–$19.41
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own HGTY if it sustains double‑digit growth and underwriting profitability the business justifies a premium multiple, otherwise the valuation is fragile.

HGTY price history

Latest price$16.04Today−$0.90 (-5.31%)
HGTY +11.74%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • A passionate collector‑car community gives Hagerty repeatable cross‑sell into insurance, membership and marketplace revenue that drives durable organic growth and high LTV/CAC economics.HoldingMateriality: High

    Revenue increased from $619.079m (2021) to $1,456.389m (2025), showing sustained top‑line scale. If true, revenue and margins come from repeatable, low‑cost cross‑sell and growth is durable; if false, growth will require expensive customer acquisition or M&A and returns will fall.

    Watch: Large incumbent insurers or insurtechs offering lower premium pricing or broad affinity programs that win classic‑car customers.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue increased from $619.079m (2021) to $1,456.389m (2025), showing sustained top‑line scale.

    Open source ↗
  • Insurance underwriting plus recurring digital services provide operating leverage: as revenue scales, operating cash flow should grow faster than revenue, improving free cash generation and funding expansion.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Operating cash flow rose from $133.706m (2023) to $177.024m (2024) to $218.986m (2025), increasing faster than revenue growth in the last two years. Strong operating leverage converts growth into cash and value; if underwriting economics deteriorate, cash flow and reinvestment capacity fall and the premium multiple is unsupported.

    Watch: Worsening claims frequency/severity (insurance loss ratio or catastrophic events) increasing paid losses and reducing underwriting margin.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow rose from $133.706m (2023) to $177.024m (2024) to $218.986m (2025), increasing faster than revenue growth in the.

    Open source ↗
  • Hagerty has strengthened its balance sheet (cash and equity) enabling inorganic optionality and resilience; disciplined capital allocation can compound per‑share value.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Stockholders' equity grew from $92.704m (2023) to $150.322m (2024) to $221.316m (2025), indicating balance‑sheet improvement. A stronger balance sheet supports M&A, product investment, and withstands underwriting shocks; if capital is poorly allocated (expensive M&A or dilution) returns suffer.

    Watch: Aggressive acquisition strategy that overpays for targets and destroys returns.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Stockholders' equity grew from $92.704m (2023) to $150.322m (2024) to $221.316m (2025), indicating balance‑sheet improvement.

    Open source ↗
  • Sustained underwriting discipline (loss ratios, reinsurance) is a core causal driver of net income and cash generation; durable underwriting performance converts premium scale into shareholder value.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Net income recovered from a loss of $61.354m (2021) to positive $28.179m (2023), $78.303m (2024) and $149.225m (2025), implying improvement in core profitability over time. If underwriting stays disciplined, earnings and cash flow expand; if underwriting deteriorates, growth may be worthless because losses consume premiums.

    Watch: Large catastrophe years or materially worse-than-expected loss development on reserves.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Net income recovered from a loss of $61.354m (2021) to positive $28.179m (2023), $78.303m (2024) and $149.225m (2025), implying improvement.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

A passionate collector‑car community gives Hagerty repeatable cross‑sell into insurance, membership and marketplace revenue that drives durable organic growth and high LTV/CAC economics. If true, revenue and margins come from repeatable, low‑cost cross‑sell and growth is durable; if false, growth will require expensive customer acquisition or M&A and returns will fall.

Insurance underwriting plus recurring digital services provide operating leverage: as revenue scales, operating cash flow should grow faster than revenue, improving free cash generation and funding expansion. Strong operating leverage converts growth into cash and value; if underwriting economics deteriorate, cash flow and reinvestment capacity fall and the premium multiple is unsupported.

Hagerty has strengthened its balance sheet (cash and equity) enabling inorganic optionality and resilience; disciplined capital allocation can compound per‑share value. A stronger balance sheet supports M&A, product investment, and withstands underwriting shocks; if capital is poorly allocated (expensive M&A or dilution) returns suffer.

Sustained underwriting discipline (loss ratios, reinsurance) is a core causal driver of net income and cash generation; durable underwriting performance converts premium scale into shareholder value. If underwriting stays disciplined, earnings and cash flow expand; if underwriting deteriorates, growth may be worthless because losses consume premiums.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

it sustains double‑digit growth and underwriting profitability the business justifies a premium multiple, otherwise the valuation is fragile.

Evidence assessed Nov 9, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Hagerty

Where the evidence on Hagerty stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • A passionate collector‑car community gives Hagerty repeatable cross‑sell into insurance, membership and marketplace revenue that drives durable organic growth and high LTV/CAC economics.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Insurance underwriting plus recurring digital services provide operating leverage: as revenue scales, operating cash flow should grow faster than revenue, improving free cash generation and funding expansion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Hagerty has strengthened its balance sheet (cash and equity) enabling inorganic optionality and resilience; disciplined capital allocation can compound per‑share value.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Sustained underwriting discipline (loss ratios, reinsurance) is a core causal driver of net income and cash generation; durable underwriting performance converts premium scale into shareholder value.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large incumbent insurers or insurtechs offering lower premium pricing or broad affinity programs that win classic‑car customers.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Worsening claims frequency/severity (insurance loss ratio or catastrophic events) increasing paid losses and reducing underwriting margin.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Aggressive acquisition strategy that overpays for targets and destroys returns.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Hagerty

Loading the break-condition record for Hagerty.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Hagerty filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Hagerty filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-11: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Hagerty filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-09: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large incumbent insurers or insurtechs offering lower premium pricing or broad affinity programs that win classic‑car customers.
  • Worsening claims frequency/severity (insurance loss ratio or catastrophic events) increasing paid losses and reducing underwriting margin.
  • Aggressive acquisition strategy that overpays for targets and destroys returns.
  • Large catastrophe years or materially worse-than-expected loss development on reserves.

HGTY news

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Financial statements

HGTY income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

HGTY: quick answers

Which well-known investors own HGTY?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported HGTY shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.3%. Fund portfolios

HGTY in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported HGTY shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Tom GaynerMarkel Group0.33%$41.8MNo changeQ3 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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