The Home Depot

HDNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$350.17
−$0.83 (−0.24%)Today 1M +20.44%

Updated Nov 11, 2:31 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

—
Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
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Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
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Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$351.00
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$344.31–$350.33
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.7M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 2:31 PM ET.
Nov 17 projected
Projected for 2026-11-17 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$277.15–$397.63
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own HD if management stabilizes margins and sustains Pro/customer share against online and Lowe's competition.

HD price history

Latest price$350.17Today−$0.83 (-0.24%)
HD +20.43%S&P 500 -2.31%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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INVESTMENT THESIS

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Home Depot's national store footprint and omnichannel capabilities convert underlying housing/remodel demand into steady revenue growth, keeping the top line resilient.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Revenue rose from $152.669B (FY2024) to $164.683B (FY2027), showing consistent top-line expansion across reported years. If the footprint + omni model keeps converting demand, revenue growth funds cash generation and shareholder returns; if customers migrate to competitors/online-only channels, top-line growth will slow.

    Watch: Large Pro/customer migration to Lowe's or specialized wholesalers that reduces repeat in-store purchases and professional sales conversion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue rose from $152.669B (FY2024) to $164.683B (FY2027), showing consistent top-line expansion across reported years.

    Open source ↗
  • Home Depot's purchasing scale and vendor relationships sustain gross profit dollars (and underlying buying economics), giving the company latitude to absorb cost inflation without immediate margin collapse.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Gross profit increased from $50.96B (FY2024) to $54.865B (FY2027) in absolute dollars while revenue grew. Sustained gross-profit dollars let management cover higher fulfillment and labor costs and still fund operating cash flow; if gross economics deteriorate, operating leverage vanishes quickly.

    Watch: Supplier consolidation or adverse vendor term changes that materially increase cost of goods sold and compress gross margins.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Gross profit increased from $50.96B (FY2024) to $54.865B (FY2027) in absolute dollars while revenue grew.

    Open source ↗
  • Operating leverage is under pressure: despite rising revenue, Home Depot's operating income has declined, implying that fulfillment, labor, and SG&A increases are the proximate margin risk that can erode shareholder returns if not contained.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Operating income declined from $24.039B (FY2023) to $20.890B (FY2027) while revenue rose over the same period, showing margin compression in absolute operating results. If cost inflation or elevated fulfillment/omnichannel expenses persist, operating income and free cash flow will fall even with stable revenue, reducing capacity for buybacks/dividends and equity returns.

    Watch: Failure to control escalating fulfillment and labor costs tied to omnichannel expansion, causing further operating-income decline.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating income declined from $24.039B (FY2023) to $20.890B (FY2027) while revenue rose over the same period, showing margin compression in.

    Open source ↗
  • Home Depot's substantial operating cash flow sustains capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and reinvestment, so long as cash conversion remains in the multi‑billion-dollar range.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Operating cash flow remained large across years: $14.615B (FY2023), $21.172B (FY2024), $19.81B (FY2025), and $16.325B (FY2027), demonstrating material cash generation. Stable, large operating cash flow enables shareholder returns without levering the balance sheet; if cash flow collapses, buybacks/dividends may be cut or leverage increased.

    Watch: A housing-market-driven decline in sales leading to lower cash collections and higher working capital needs, reducing operating cash flow.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow remained large across years: $14.615B (FY2023), $21.172B (FY2024), $19.81B (FY2025), and $16.325B (FY2027), demonstrating material cash generation.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Home Depot's national store footprint and omnichannel capabilities convert underlying housing/remodel demand into steady revenue growth, keeping the top line resilient. If the footprint + omni model keeps converting demand, revenue growth funds cash generation and shareholder returns; if customers migrate to competitors/online-only channels, top-line growth will slow.

Home Depot's purchasing scale and vendor relationships sustain gross profit dollars (and underlying buying economics), giving the company latitude to absorb cost inflation without immediate margin collapse. Sustained gross-profit dollars let management cover higher fulfillment and labor costs and still fund operating cash flow; if gross economics deteriorate, operating leverage vanishes quickly.

Operating leverage is under pressure: despite rising revenue, Home Depot's operating income has declined, implying that fulfillment, labor, and SG&A increases are the proximate margin risk that can erode shareholder returns if not contained. If cost inflation or elevated fulfillment/omnichannel expenses persist, operating income and free cash flow will fall even with stable revenue, reducing capacity for buybacks/dividends and equity returns.

Home Depot's substantial operating cash flow sustains capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and reinvestment, so long as cash conversion remains in the multi‑billion-dollar range. Stable, large operating cash flow enables shareholder returns without levering the balance sheet; if cash flow collapses, buybacks/dividends may be cut or leverage increased.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

management stabilizes margins and sustains Pro/customer share against online and Lowe's competition.

Evidence assessed Nov 9, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Home Depot

Where the evidence on Home Depot stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Home Depot's national store footprint and omnichannel capabilities convert underlying housing/remodel demand into steady revenue growth, keeping the top line resilient.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Home Depot's purchasing scale and vendor relationships sustain gross profit dollars (and underlying buying economics), giving the company latitude to absorb cost inflation without immediate margin collapse.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Operating leverage is under pressure: despite rising revenue, Home Depot's operating income has declined, implying that fulfillment, labor, and SG&A increases are the proximate margin risk that can erode shareholder returns if not contained.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Home Depot's substantial operating cash flow sustains capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and reinvestment, so long as cash conversion remains in the multi‑billion-dollar range.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large Pro/customer migration to Lowe's or specialized wholesalers that reduces repeat in-store purchases and professional sales conversion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Supplier consolidation or adverse vendor term changes that materially increase cost of goods sold and compress gross margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Failure to control escalating fulfillment and labor costs tied to omnichannel expansion, causing further operating-income decline.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Home Depot

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Home Depot’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. MIXED
    Director or principal officer change.

    Home Depot filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Home Depot filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-18: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. MIXED
    Director or principal officer change.

    Home Depot filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-12: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

RISKS / FALSIFIERS

What could break the thesis

  • Large Pro/customer migration to Lowe's or specialized wholesalers that reduces repeat in-store purchases and professional sales conversion.
  • Supplier consolidation or adverse vendor term changes that materially increase cost of goods sold and compress gross margins.
  • Failure to control escalating fulfillment and labor costs tied to omnichannel expansion, causing further operating-income decline.
  • A housing-market-driven decline in sales leading to lower cash collections and higher working capital needs, reducing operating cash flow.

HD news

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

HD income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

HD: quick answers

When does Home Depot (HD) report earnings next?
Home Depot's next results are projected for November 17, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 18, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is HD's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 11.6M HD shares were sold short, 1.16% of its shares outstanding, down 5.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. HD short interest history
Have members of Congress traded HD?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 28 trades in HD by 9 filers: 9 purchases and 19 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed HD trade
Which well-known investors own HD?
4 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported HD shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel), 5.6%; Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 2.1%; Gates Foundation Trust (Bill Gates), 1.0%. Fund portfolios

HD in well-known investors’ portfolios

4 of 37 funds reported HD shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Stephen MandelLone Pine Capital5.6%$918MNewQ2 2026
Tom GaynerMarkel Group2.1%$265M+1.0%Q3 2026
Bill GatesGates Foundation Trust1.0%$353MNewQ2 2026
Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors0.93%$325M+82.6%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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