The Home Depot
HDNYSEUSD
- — Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- — Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- — Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $351.00 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $344.31–$350.33 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.7M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 2:31 PM ET.
- Nov 17 projected Projected for 2026-11-17 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $277.15–$397.63 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own HD if management stabilizes margins and sustains Pro/customer share against online and Lowe's competition.
HD price history
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INVESTMENT THESIS
What must happen next
Home Depot's national store footprint and omnichannel capabilities convert underlying housing/remodel demand into steady revenue growth, keeping the top line resilient.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue rose from $152.669B (FY2024) to $164.683B (FY2027), showing consistent top-line expansion across reported years. If the footprint + omni model keeps converting demand, revenue growth funds cash generation and shareholder returns; if customers migrate to competitors/online-only channels, top-line growth will slow.
Watch: Large Pro/customer migration to Lowe's or specialized wholesalers that reduces repeat in-store purchases and professional sales conversion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue rose from $152.669B (FY2024) to $164.683B (FY2027), showing consistent top-line expansion across reported years.
Open source ↗Home Depot's purchasing scale and vendor relationships sustain gross profit dollars (and underlying buying economics), giving the company latitude to absorb cost inflation without immediate margin collapse.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Gross profit increased from $50.96B (FY2024) to $54.865B (FY2027) in absolute dollars while revenue grew. Sustained gross-profit dollars let management cover higher fulfillment and labor costs and still fund operating cash flow; if gross economics deteriorate, operating leverage vanishes quickly.
Watch: Supplier consolidation or adverse vendor term changes that materially increase cost of goods sold and compress gross margins.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit increased from $50.96B (FY2024) to $54.865B (FY2027) in absolute dollars while revenue grew.
Open source ↗Operating leverage is under pressure: despite rising revenue, Home Depot's operating income has declined, implying that fulfillment, labor, and SG&A increases are the proximate margin risk that can erode shareholder returns if not contained.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating income declined from $24.039B (FY2023) to $20.890B (FY2027) while revenue rose over the same period, showing margin compression in absolute operating results. If cost inflation or elevated fulfillment/omnichannel expenses persist, operating income and free cash flow will fall even with stable revenue, reducing capacity for buybacks/dividends and equity returns.
Watch: Failure to control escalating fulfillment and labor costs tied to omnichannel expansion, causing further operating-income decline.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income declined from $24.039B (FY2023) to $20.890B (FY2027) while revenue rose over the same period, showing margin compression in.
Open source ↗Home Depot's substantial operating cash flow sustains capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and reinvestment, so long as cash conversion remains in the multi‑billion-dollar range.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow remained large across years: $14.615B (FY2023), $21.172B (FY2024), $19.81B (FY2025), and $16.325B (FY2027), demonstrating material cash generation. Stable, large operating cash flow enables shareholder returns without levering the balance sheet; if cash flow collapses, buybacks/dividends may be cut or leverage increased.
Watch: A housing-market-driven decline in sales leading to lower cash collections and higher working capital needs, reducing operating cash flow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow remained large across years: $14.615B (FY2023), $21.172B (FY2024), $19.81B (FY2025), and $16.325B (FY2027), demonstrating material cash generation.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Home Depot's national store footprint and omnichannel capabilities convert underlying housing/remodel demand into steady revenue growth, keeping the top line resilient. If the footprint + omni model keeps converting demand, revenue growth funds cash generation and shareholder returns; if customers migrate to competitors/online-only channels, top-line growth will slow.
Home Depot's purchasing scale and vendor relationships sustain gross profit dollars (and underlying buying economics), giving the company latitude to absorb cost inflation without immediate margin collapse. Sustained gross-profit dollars let management cover higher fulfillment and labor costs and still fund operating cash flow; if gross economics deteriorate, operating leverage vanishes quickly.
Operating leverage is under pressure: despite rising revenue, Home Depot's operating income has declined, implying that fulfillment, labor, and SG&A increases are the proximate margin risk that can erode shareholder returns if not contained. If cost inflation or elevated fulfillment/omnichannel expenses persist, operating income and free cash flow will fall even with stable revenue, reducing capacity for buybacks/dividends and equity returns.
Home Depot's substantial operating cash flow sustains capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and reinvestment, so long as cash conversion remains in the multi‑billion-dollar range. Stable, large operating cash flow enables shareholder returns without levering the balance sheet; if cash flow collapses, buybacks/dividends may be cut or leverage increased.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
management stabilizes margins and sustains Pro/customer share against online and Lowe's competition.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Home Depot
Where the evidence on Home Depot stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Home Depot's national store footprint and omnichannel capabilities convert underlying housing/remodel demand into steady revenue growth, keeping the top line resilient.
Home Depot's purchasing scale and vendor relationships sustain gross profit dollars (and underlying buying economics), giving the company latitude to absorb cost inflation without immediate margin collapse.
Operating leverage is under pressure: despite rising revenue, Home Depot's operating income has declined, implying that fulfillment, labor, and SG&A increases are the proximate margin risk that can erode shareholder returns if not contained.
Home Depot's substantial operating cash flow sustains capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and reinvestment, so long as cash conversion remains in the multi‑billion-dollar range.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large Pro/customer migration to Lowe's or specialized wholesalers that reduces repeat in-store purchases and professional sales conversion.
Supplier consolidation or adverse vendor term changes that materially increase cost of goods sold and compress gross margins.
Failure to control escalating fulfillment and labor costs tied to omnichannel expansion, causing further operating-income decline.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Home Depot
No break has crossed Home Depot’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MIXEDDirector or principal officer change.
Home Depot filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
Home Depot filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-18: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDDirector or principal officer change.
Home Depot filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-12: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
RISKS / FALSIFIERS
What could break the thesis
- Large Pro/customer migration to Lowe's or specialized wholesalers that reduces repeat in-store purchases and professional sales conversion.
- Supplier consolidation or adverse vendor term changes that materially increase cost of goods sold and compress gross margins.
- Failure to control escalating fulfillment and labor costs tied to omnichannel expansion, causing further operating-income decline.
- A housing-market-driven decline in sales leading to lower cash collections and higher working capital needs, reducing operating cash flow.
HD news
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
HD income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
HD: quick answers
- When does Home Depot (HD) report earnings next?
- Home Depot's next results are projected for November 17, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 18, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is HD's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 11.6M HD shares were sold short, 1.16% of its shares outstanding, down 5.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. HD short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded HD?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 28 trades in HD by 9 filers: 9 purchases and 19 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed HD trade
- Which well-known investors own HD?
- 4 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported HD shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel), 5.6%; Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 2.1%; Gates Foundation Trust (Bill Gates), 1.0%. Fund portfolios
HD in well-known investors’ portfolios
4 of 37 funds reported HD shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen MandelLone Pine Capital | 5.6% | $918M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 2.1% | $265M | +1.0% | Q3 2026 |
| Bill GatesGates Foundation Trust | 1.0% | $353M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors | 0.93% | $325M | +82.6% | Q2 2026 |
