Granite Construction

GVANYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$126.40
+$1.59 (+1.27%)Today 1M +10.94%
After hours$124.00−1.90%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$124.81
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$124.75–$126.88
Regular-session low and high so far today.
228.2K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 11 projected
Projected for 2027-02-11 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$100.55–$162.08
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own GVA if Granite turns ownership of materials (aggregates/plants) plus local market relationships into steadier, higher-margin civil-construction work and strong free-cash-flow that a conservative balance sheet converts into winning bids and returns.

GVA price history

Latest price$126.40Today+$1.59 (+1.27%)
GVA +13.29%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Owning aggregate reserves and plants gives Granite a structural cost advantage that preserves gross margin and lets the company capture more value on projects than non-integrated contractors.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    gross_profit rose from 396,399,000 (2023) to 572,697,000 (2024) to 711,216,000 (2025), indicating improving absolute margin capture. If true, Granite will sustain higher gross-profitability through cycles and convert revenue into operating cash more reliably; if false, margins will compress as competitors or commodity price moves erode the advantage.

    Watch: Competitors or third-party materials suppliers offer lower-cost alternatives or aggressive pricing that undercuts Granite's sales margins.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross_profit rose from 396,399,000 (2023) to 572,697,000 (2024) to 711,216,000 (2025), indicating improving absolute margin capture.

    Open source ↗
  • Granite's home-market strategy and long-standing local relationships let it capture a steady share of public infrastructure spending, producing durable revenue growth and lowering bid risk versus national-only competitors.HoldingMateriality: High

    revenue increased from 3,509,138,000 (2023) to 4,007,574,000 (2024) to 4,424,379,000 (2025), showing strong top-line growth. Sustained wins in state and municipal programs convert public capex into predictable revenue; if demand or relationships weaken, revenue growth and utilization fall quickly.

    Watch: Material cuts or delays in state/federal infrastructure budgets (e.g., California DOT award slowdowns) that reduce available contract awards.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    revenue increased from 3,509,138,000 (2023) to 4,007,574,000 (2024) to 4,424,379,000 (2025), showing strong top-line growth.

    Open source ↗
  • Improved project execution and project mix are converting higher revenues into materially stronger operating cash flow, which strengthens liquidity and enables selective bidding and capital returns.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    operating_cash_flow rose from 183,707,000 (2023) to 456,343,000 (2024) and 468,916,000 (2025), signaling improving cash conversion. If execution and mix persist, Granite will generate the internal cash to fund working capital swings, invest in materials footprint, and return capital; if execution deteriorates, cash flow falls and the balance sheet is strained.

    Watch: Large project cost overruns, claims, or dispute-driven cash outflows (for example, contract change orders not collectible).

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow rose from 183,707,000 (2023) to 456,343,000 (2024) and 468,916,000 (2025), signaling improving cash conversion.

    Open source ↗
  • Granite's cash and equity base gives it the financial capacity to bid larger or more complex projects and absorb seasonality, supporting growth without over-leveraging.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    cash increased materially over recent years (293,991,000 at 2022 year-end. If liquidity remains strong, Granite can pursue accretive opportunities and sustain operations through slow seasons; a cash drain or covenant pressure would constrain bidding, growth and returns.

    Watch: Large one-off cash uses such as acquisitive deals, major capex or share repurchases that materially reduce cash without offsetting returns.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    cash increased materially over recent years (293,991,000 at 2022 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Owning aggregate reserves and plants gives Granite a structural cost advantage that preserves gross margin and lets the company capture more value on projects than non-integrated contractors. If true, Granite will sustain higher gross-profitability through cycles and convert revenue into operating cash more reliably; if false, margins will compress as competitors or commodity price moves erode the advantage.

Granite's home-market strategy and long-standing local relationships let it capture a steady share of public infrastructure spending, producing durable revenue growth and lowering bid risk versus national-only competitors. Sustained wins in state and municipal programs convert public capex into predictable revenue; if demand or relationships weaken, revenue growth and utilization fall quickly.

Improved project execution and project mix are converting higher revenues into materially stronger operating cash flow, which strengthens liquidity and enables selective bidding and capital returns. If execution and mix persist, Granite will generate the internal cash to fund working capital swings, invest in materials footprint, and return capital; if execution deteriorates, cash flow falls and the balance sheet is strained.

Granite's cash and equity base gives it the financial capacity to bid larger or more complex projects and absorb seasonality, supporting growth without over-leveraging. If liquidity remains strong, Granite can pursue accretive opportunities and sustain operations through slow seasons; a cash drain or covenant pressure would constrain bidding, growth and returns.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Granite turns ownership of materials (aggregates/plants) plus local market relationships into steadier, higher-margin civil-construction work and strong free-cash-flow that a conservative balance sheet converts into winning bids and returns.

Evidence assessed Nov 7, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Granite Construction

Where the evidence on Granite Construction stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Owning aggregate reserves and plants gives Granite a structural cost advantage that preserves gross margin and lets the company capture more value on projects than non-integrated contractors.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Granite's home-market strategy and long-standing local relationships let it capture a steady share of public infrastructure spending, producing durable revenue growth and lowering bid risk versus national-only competitors.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Improved project execution and project mix are converting higher revenues into materially stronger operating cash flow, which strengthens liquidity and enables selective bidding and capital returns.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Granite's cash and equity base gives it the financial capacity to bid larger or more complex projects and absorb seasonality, supporting growth without over-leveraging.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Competitors or third-party materials suppliers offer lower-cost alternatives or aggressive pricing that undercuts Granite's sales margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Material cuts or delays in state/federal infrastructure budgets (e.g., California DOT award slowdowns) that reduce available contract awards.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Large project cost overruns, claims, or dispute-driven cash outflows (for example, contract change orders not collectible).

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Granite Construction

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Granite Construction’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Granite Construction filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Unregistered sale of equity securities.

    Granite Construction filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Unregistered sale of equity securities. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Granite Construction filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-07: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Competitors or third-party materials suppliers offer lower-cost alternatives or aggressive pricing that undercuts Granite's sales margins.
  • Material cuts or delays in state/federal infrastructure budgets (e.g., California DOT award slowdowns) that reduce available contract awards.
  • Large project cost overruns, claims, or dispute-driven cash outflows (for example, contract change orders not collectible).
  • Large one-off cash uses such as acquisitive deals, major capex or share repurchases that materially reduce cash without offsetting returns.

GVA news

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Financial statements

GVA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

GVA: quick answers

When does Granite Construction (GVA) report earnings next?
Granite Construction's next results are projected for February 11, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is GVA's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 3.8M GVA shares were sold short, 8.71% of its shares outstanding, down 8.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. GVA short interest history
Have members of Congress traded GVA?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in GVA by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed GVA trade
Which well-known investors own GVA?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported GVA shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

GVA in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported GVA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$1.7M−69.1%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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