Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPKNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $11.14 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $10.89–$11.18 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 3.7M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $8.15–$16.61 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own GPK if those contracts and manufacturing advantages hold while the company converts divestiture proceeds into productive capital returns.
GPK price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Multi-year supply contracts with explicit cost pass-throughs materially reduce the company’s exposure to raw-material and energy volatility, so operating margins and operating income should be more stable than for unintegrated competitors.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: "Many of the Company's multi-year supply contracts include terms which provide for the pass through of certain costs including raw materials, energy, labor and other manufacturing costs". If true, GPK can sustain margins through commodity cycles and convert revenue into cash; if false, margins will be volatile and earnings will fall when input costs spike.
Watch: A large CPG or retailer cohort pushes for lower total landed cost and renegotiates pass-through provisions (supplier consolidation or procurement pressure).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: "Many of the Company's multi-year supply contracts include terms which provide for the pass through of certain costs including.
Open source ↗Owning most paperboard capacity in the Americas gives GPK a cost, quality and service advantage that supports customer retention and protects market share versus pure-play converters who must source third-party paperboard.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Business Overview: "The Company currently manufactures most of the paperboard it consumes in the Americas" and "serving customers ranging from local to multinational consumer products companies and retailers". If the integration advantage holds, GPK can defend pricing and win share in the Americas; if it fails, competitors with lower-cost sourcing or novel materials can take share and depress revenue and margins.
Watch: Competitors expand integrated paperboard capacity or introduce lower-cost substrates (e.g., high-performance plastics or new mono-materials) that erode the value of GPK's integration.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business Overview: "The Company currently manufactures most of the paperboard it consumes in the Americas" and "serving customers ranging from.
Open source ↗The company’s divestitures, facility consolidations and recycled-paperboard network optimization will convert into higher free cash flow and allow sustainable capital returns if one-time charges are not replaced by recurring costs or higher input prices.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A: multiple facility closures and the $711M Augusta divestiture (May 2024) — proceeds materially changed balance sheet/cash position. Realized productivity and asset-sale proceeds fund buybacks/deleveraging; failure to realize them leaves cash flow weak and limits shareholder returns.
Watch: Restructuring generates ongoing higher per-unit costs (e.g., longer logistics, lost efficiencies) that offset expected savings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: multiple facility closures and the $711M Augusta divestiture (May 2024) — proceeds materially changed balance sheet/cash position.
Open source ↗Management’s authorized repurchase programs can boost EPS and return on equity only if repurchases are executed without materially depleting liquidity or increasing leverage to unsafe levels.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Business Overview: Board authorized up to $1.5B repurchase program (additional availability $1.715B noted). Buybacks can re-rate earnings per share and support the stock; if funded by excessive debt or at the expense of necessary capex, they risk credit metrics and future cash flow.
Watch: Company uses debt to fund large-scale repurchases, worsening interest expense and covenant headroom (Interest Expense, Net remains material: -220M in 2025).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business Overview: Board authorized up to $1.5B repurchase program (additional availability $1.715B noted).
Open source ↗Growing customer preference for recyclable and recycled-content packaging will expand addressable demand for GPK’s paperboard solutions and allow above-market share gains in categories where circular packaging is prioritized.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Business Overview & MD&A emphasize the company’s role in "creating consumer packaging" that is "more circular" and the firm offering "one of the most comprehensive ranges of packaging design, manufacturing and execution capabilities". If sustainability-led adoption continues, revenue and pricing power improve; if customers deprioritize paperboard or favor another sustainable substrate, GPK’s growth stalls.
Watch: Technology or cost advances in alternative sustainable substrates (e.g., compostable plastics, monomaterial barriers) displace paperboard in key end-uses.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Business Overview & MD&A emphasize the company’s role in "creating consumer packaging" that is "more circular" and the firm offering.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Multi-year supply contracts with explicit cost pass-throughs materially reduce the company’s exposure to raw-material and energy volatility, so operating margins and operating income should be more stable than for unintegrated competitors. If true, GPK can sustain margins through commodity cycles and convert revenue into cash; if false, margins will be volatile and earnings will fall when input costs spike.
Owning most paperboard capacity in the Americas gives GPK a cost, quality and service advantage that supports customer retention and protects market share versus pure-play converters who must source third-party paperboard. If the integration advantage holds, GPK can defend pricing and win share in the Americas; if it fails, competitors with lower-cost sourcing or novel materials can take share and depress revenue and margins.
The company’s divestitures, facility consolidations and recycled-paperboard network optimization will convert into higher free cash flow and allow sustainable capital returns if one-time charges are not replaced by recurring costs or higher input prices. Realized productivity and asset-sale proceeds fund buybacks/deleveraging; failure to realize them leaves cash flow weak and limits shareholder returns.
Management’s authorized repurchase programs can boost EPS and return on equity only if repurchases are executed without materially depleting liquidity or increasing leverage to unsafe levels. Buybacks can re-rate earnings per share and support the stock; if funded by excessive debt or at the expense of necessary capex, they risk credit metrics and future cash flow.
Growing customer preference for recyclable and recycled-content packaging will expand addressable demand for GPK’s paperboard solutions and allow above-market share gains in categories where circular packaging is prioritized. If sustainability-led adoption continues, revenue and pricing power improve; if customers deprioritize paperboard or favor another sustainable substrate, GPK’s growth stalls.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
those contracts and manufacturing advantages hold while the company converts divestiture proceeds into productive capital returns.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Graphic Packaging Holding Co
Where the evidence on Graphic Packaging Holding Co stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Multi-year supply contracts with explicit cost pass-throughs materially reduce the company’s exposure to raw-material and energy volatility, so operating margins and operating income should be more stable than for unintegrated competitors.
Owning most paperboard capacity in the Americas gives GPK a cost, quality and service advantage that supports customer retention and protects market share versus pure-play converters who must source third-party paperboard.
The company’s divestitures, facility consolidations and recycled-paperboard network optimization will convert into higher free cash flow and allow sustainable capital returns if one-time charges are not replaced by recurring costs or higher input prices.
Management’s authorized repurchase programs can boost EPS and return on equity only if repurchases are executed without materially depleting liquidity or increasing leverage to unsafe levels.
Growing customer preference for recyclable and recycled-content packaging will expand addressable demand for GPK’s paperboard solutions and allow above-market share gains in categories where circular packaging is prioritized.
Bear case: what would count against it
A large CPG or retailer cohort pushes for lower total landed cost and renegotiates pass-through provisions (supplier consolidation or procurement pressure).
Competitors expand integrated paperboard capacity or introduce lower-cost substrates (e.g., high-performance plastics or new mono-materials) that erode the value of GPK's integration.
Restructuring generates ongoing higher per-unit costs (e.g., longer logistics, lost efficiencies) that offset expected savings.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Graphic Packaging Holding Co
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Graphic Packaging Holding Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-28: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-28: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A large CPG or retailer cohort pushes for lower total landed cost and renegotiates pass-through provisions (supplier consolidation or procurement pressure).
- Competitors expand integrated paperboard capacity or introduce lower-cost substrates (e.g., high-performance plastics or new mono-materials) that erode the value of GPK's integration.
- Restructuring generates ongoing higher per-unit costs (e.g., longer logistics, lost efficiencies) that offset expected savings.
- Company uses debt to fund large-scale repurchases, worsening interest expense and covenant headroom (Interest Expense, Net remains material: -220M in 2025).
- Technology or cost advances in alternative sustainable substrates (e.g., compostable plastics, monomaterial barriers) displace paperboard in key end-uses.
GPK news
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Financial statements
GPK income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
GPK: quick answers
- What is GPK's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 25.5M GPK shares were sold short, 8.62% of its shares outstanding, down 3.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. GPK short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded GPK?
- 69 trades in GPK have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed GPK trade
- Which well-known investors own GPK?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported GPK shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
GPK in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported GPK shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $1.3M | −45.1% | Q2 2026 |