Alphabet
GOOGNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $290.63 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $290.47–$297.59 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 9.8M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 12:00 PM ET.
- Feb 3 projected Projected for 2027-02-03 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $271.41–$404.47 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own GOOG if Alphabet monetizes massive user attention and enterprise adoption by embedding its proprietary AI models across Search, YouTube and Cloud, converting that engagement and scale into high-margin advertising and growing cloud revenue while leveraging custom.
GOOG price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Embedding Gemini and generative-AI features across Google products materially increases user engagement and advertiser willingness to pay, sustaining above-market consolidated revenue growth.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Consolidated revenue rose from 307,394,000,000 (FY 2023) to 350,018,000,000 (FY 2024) to 402,836,000,000 (FY 2025) — showing accelerating top-line growth during the AI rollout. If AI features boost engagement and ad yield, revenue growth justifies the premium multiple; if not, growth will slow and the stock re-rates.
Watch: A competing integrated AI search/chat product (e.g., a Microsoft + OpenAI alternative) meaningfully diverts user queries or engagement from Google Search/YouTube, reducing ad impressions and yield.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Consolidated revenue rose from 307,394,000,000 (FY 2023) to 350,018,000,000 (FY 2024) to 402,836,000,000 (FY 2025) — showing accelerating top-line growth.
Open source ↗Google Cloud can become a larger recurring-revenue engine, but its growth must outpace the incremental infrastructure and sales cost burden to avoid compressing consolidated operating margins.HoldingMateriality: High
Operating income increased from 84,293,000,000 (FY 2023) to 112,390,000,000 (FY 2024) to 129,039,000,000 (FY 2025), showing current ability to grow profit while investing in Cloud and AI. If Cloud scales with improving unit economics, it lengthens the growth runway and supports valuation; if Cloud growth is revenue-heavy but margin-light, blended margins and returns suffer.
Watch: Aggressive price competition from AWS/Azure or an enterprise preference for third-party model providers (reducing Cloud capture) that forces Google Cloud to sacrifice price or invest more in sales, widening the margin gap.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income increased from 84,293,000,000 (FY 2023) to 112,390,000,000 (FY 2024) to 129,039,000,000 (FY 2025), showing current ability to grow.
Open source ↗Alphabet's full-stack AI infrastructure (custom TPUs like Ironwood, data-center scale and model design) provides a durable cost/performance advantage that limits the marginal cost of serving models and defends pricing power.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Gross profit increased from 174,062,000,000 (FY 2023) to 203,712,000,000 (FY 2024) to 240,301,000,000 (FY 2025), consistent with scaling business and recovering gross economics even as AI investments ramp. If infrastructure scale and custom accelerators keep inference/serving costs low, Alphabet can monetize AI without margin collapse; if competitors match or customers shift to alternative silicon, the infra moat weakens and costs rise.
Watch: Hyperscalers or cloud customers develop/ adopt alternative custom silicon or on-prem solutions (e.g., hyperscaler-built chips or a surge in customers choosing specialized vendors) reducing Alphabet's advantage.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit increased from 174,062,000,000 (FY 2023) to 203,712,000,000 (FY 2024) to 240,301,000,000 (FY 2025), consistent with scaling business and.
Open source ↗Strong operating cash flow provides the financial flexibility to fund capital‑intensive AI infrastructure and R&D without diluting shareholders or jeopardizing returns.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow rose year-over-year from 101,746,000,000 (FY 2023) to 125,299,000,000 (FY 2024) to 164,713,000,000 (FY 2025), evidencing strong free cash conversion. Sustained high operating cash flow funds capex and acquisitions that accelerate AI and Cloud, preserving equity value; if cash flow weakens, funding either requires debt or reduces investments, harming growth.
Watch: A persistent step-up in capital spending (e.g., sustained multi-year increases beyond current guidance) combined with falling revenue growth would erode free cash flow and force trade-offs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow rose year-over-year from 101,746,000,000 (FY 2023) to 125,299,000,000 (FY 2024) to 164,713,000,000 (FY 2025), evidencing strong free.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Embedding Gemini and generative-AI features across Google products materially increases user engagement and advertiser willingness to pay, sustaining above-market consolidated revenue growth. If AI features boost engagement and ad yield, revenue growth justifies the premium multiple; if not, growth will slow and the stock re-rates.
Google Cloud can become a larger recurring-revenue engine, but its growth must outpace the incremental infrastructure and sales cost burden to avoid compressing consolidated operating margins. If Cloud scales with improving unit economics, it lengthens the growth runway and supports valuation; if Cloud growth is revenue-heavy but margin-light, blended margins and returns suffer.
Alphabet's full-stack AI infrastructure (custom TPUs like Ironwood, data-center scale and model design) provides a durable cost/performance advantage that limits the marginal cost of serving models and defends pricing power. If infrastructure scale and custom accelerators keep inference/serving costs low, Alphabet can monetize AI without margin collapse; if competitors match or customers shift to alternative silicon, the infra moat weakens and costs rise.
Strong operating cash flow provides the financial flexibility to fund capital‑intensive AI infrastructure and R&D without diluting shareholders or jeopardizing returns. Sustained high operating cash flow funds capex and acquisitions that accelerate AI and Cloud, preserving equity value; if cash flow weakens, funding either requires debt or reduces investments, harming growth.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Alphabet monetizes massive user attention and enterprise adoption by embedding its proprietary AI models across Search, YouTube and Cloud, converting that engagement and scale into high-margin advertising and growing cloud revenue while leveraging custom.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Alphabet
Where the evidence on Alphabet stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Embedding Gemini and generative-AI features across Google products materially increases user engagement and advertiser willingness to pay, sustaining above-market consolidated revenue growth.
Google Cloud can become a larger recurring-revenue engine, but its growth must outpace the incremental infrastructure and sales cost burden to avoid compressing consolidated operating margins.
Alphabet's full-stack AI infrastructure (custom TPUs like Ironwood, data-center scale and model design) provides a durable cost/performance advantage that limits the marginal cost of serving models and defends pricing power.
Strong operating cash flow provides the financial flexibility to fund capital‑intensive AI infrastructure and R&D without diluting shareholders or jeopardizing returns.
Bear case: what would count against it
A competing integrated AI search/chat product (e.g., a Microsoft + OpenAI alternative) meaningfully diverts user queries or engagement from Google Search/YouTube, reducing ad impressions and yield.
Aggressive price competition from AWS/Azure or an enterprise preference for third-party model providers (reducing Cloud capture) that forces Google Cloud to sacrifice price or invest more in sales, widening the margin gap.
Hyperscalers or cloud customers develop/ adopt alternative custom silicon or on-prem solutions (e.g., hyperscaler-built chips or a surge in customers choosing specialized vendors) reducing Alphabet's advantage.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Alphabet
No break has crossed Alphabet’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedOther material event.
Alphabet filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-05: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Alphabet filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Alphabet filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-10: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A competing integrated AI search/chat product (e.g., a Microsoft + OpenAI alternative) meaningfully diverts user queries or engagement from Google Search/YouTube, reducing ad impressions and yield.
- Aggressive price competition from AWS/Azure or an enterprise preference for third-party model providers (reducing Cloud capture) that forces Google Cloud to sacrifice price or invest more in sales, widening the margin gap.
- Hyperscalers or cloud customers develop/ adopt alternative custom silicon or on-prem solutions (e.g., hyperscaler-built chips or a surge in customers choosing specialized vendors) reducing Alphabet's advantage.
- A persistent step-up in capital spending (e.g., sustained multi-year increases beyond current guidance) combined with falling revenue growth would erode free cash flow and force trade-offs.
GOOG news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
GOOG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
GOOG: quick answers
- When does Alphabet (GOOG) report earnings next?
- Alphabet's next results are projected for February 3, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is GOOG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 59.8M GOOG shares were sold short, 1.07% of its shares outstanding, up 23.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. GOOG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded GOOG?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 5 trades in GOOG by 4 filers: 1 purchase and 4 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed GOOG trade
- Which well-known investors own GOOG?
- 11 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported GOOG shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Himalaya Capital (Li Lu), 23.4%; Baupost Group (Seth Klarman), 8.9%; Appaloosa (David Tepper), 8.5%. Fund portfolios
GOOG in well-known investors’ portfolios
11 of 37 funds reported GOOG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li LuHimalaya Capital | 23.4% | $866M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Seth KlarmanBaupost Group | 8.9% | $485M | +16.1% | Q2 2026 |
| David TepperAppaloosa | 8.5% | $654M | +6.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 7.3% | $937M | No change | Q3 2026 |
| Chris HohnTCI Fund Management | 6.7% | $3.5B | +12.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 4.5% | $510M | +65.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Warren BuffettBerkshire Hathaway | 3.2% | $9.6B | +658.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 2.4% | $369M | +44.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 0.66% | $321M | −18.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.11% | $26.2M | −80.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners | 0.09% | $30.0M | New | Q2 2026 |