Gemini Space Station
GEMINASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $2.65 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $2.67–$2.86 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Nov 12 projected Projected for 2026-11-12 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $2.31–$15.27 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own GEMI if Gemini is a high-beta bet that a trusted U.S. crypto platform can turn renewed crypto activity into operating leverage; right now the numbers prove demand, not the business model.
GEMI price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Gemini’s core customer promise—trusted, regulated access to crypto finance—continues to attract activity despite larger or cheaper alternatives; if that trust premium survives, crypto adoption can convert into company revenue.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Annual GAAP revenue rose to $179.572 million in FY2025 from $142.165 million in FY2024. If this holds, Gemini has a reason to exist beyond crypto beta; if it breaks, growth migrates to better-scaled platforms and the revenue base becomes fragile.
Watch: Coinbase, Robinhood or Binance.US win incremental U.S. retail and institutional crypto flow by offering lower fees, deeper liquidity or broader products.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP revenue rose to $179.572 million in FY2025 from $142.165 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗Gemini’s compliance, security, product and support infrastructure must be scalable; if each additional dollar of crypto activity requires comparable incremental spending, the company is not a durable earnings engine.WeakeningMateriality: High
Annual GAAP operating loss narrowed to -$165.825 million in FY2024 from -$311.595 million in FY2023 while revenue grew. This is the difference between revenue growth that creates owner value and revenue growth that consumes more capital.
Watch: Coinbase, Robinhood or Binance force industry take-rate compression faster than Gemini can reduce operating costs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP operating loss narrowed to -$165.825 million in FY2024 from -$311.595 million in FY2023 while revenue grew.
Open source ↗Because Gemini is still cash-consuming, access to capital and customer confidence are part of the operating model until the platform reaches scale; liquidity must bridge the company to better economics.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents were $252.215 million at FY2025 year-end, up from $42.847 million at FY2024 year-end. If the runway holds, Gemini can keep investing through the cycle; if it does not, dilution, debt pressure or forced retrenchment can impair per-share value.
Watch: Crypto capital markets close to loss-making issuers after a market drawdown, limiting Gemini’s ability to raise equity or debt on acceptable terms.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents were $252.215 million at FY2025 year-end, up from $42.847 million at FY2024 year-end.
Open source ↗In crypto finance, perceived solvency is a product feature: Gemini’s ability to retain customers depends on showing a repaired and credible balance sheet, not just offering an app.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Stockholders’ equity was positive $540.873 million at FY2025 year-end after being negative $795.362 million at FY2024 year-end. A stronger balance sheet supports customer trust and platform activity; a credibility break can cause rapid withdrawals and permanently lower franchise value.
Watch: A proof-of-reserves, audit, custody or asset-segregation controversy undermines customer confidence in Gemini’s solvency.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Stockholders’ equity was positive $540.873 million at FY2025 year-end after being negative $795.362 million at FY2024 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Gemini’s core customer promise—trusted, regulated access to crypto finance—continues to attract activity despite larger or cheaper alternatives; if that trust premium survives, crypto adoption can convert into company revenue. If this holds, Gemini has a reason to exist beyond crypto beta; if it breaks, growth migrates to better-scaled platforms and the revenue base becomes fragile.
Gemini’s compliance, security, product and support infrastructure must be scalable; if each additional dollar of crypto activity requires comparable incremental spending, the company is not a durable earnings engine. This is the difference between revenue growth that creates owner value and revenue growth that consumes more capital.
Because Gemini is still cash-consuming, access to capital and customer confidence are part of the operating model until the platform reaches scale; liquidity must bridge the company to better economics. If the runway holds, Gemini can keep investing through the cycle; if it does not, dilution, debt pressure or forced retrenchment can impair per-share value.
In crypto finance, perceived solvency is a product feature: Gemini’s ability to retain customers depends on showing a repaired and credible balance sheet, not just offering an app. A stronger balance sheet supports customer trust and platform activity; a credibility break can cause rapid withdrawals and permanently lower franchise value.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Gemini is a high-beta bet that a trusted U.S. crypto platform can turn renewed crypto activity into operating leverage; right now the numbers prove demand, not the business model.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Gemini Space Station
Where the evidence on Gemini Space Station disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 21, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 1 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Gemini’s core customer promise—trusted, regulated access to crypto finance—continues to attract activity despite larger or cheaper alternatives; if that trust premium survives, crypto adoption can convert into company revenue.
Because Gemini is still cash-consuming, access to capital and customer confidence are part of the operating model until the platform reaches scale; liquidity must bridge the company to better economics.
In crypto finance, perceived solvency is a product feature: Gemini’s ability to retain customers depends on showing a repaired and credible balance sheet, not just offering an app.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Gemini’s compliance, security, product and support infrastructure must be scalable; if each additional dollar of crypto activity requires comparable incremental spending, the company is not a durable earnings engine.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Gemini Space Station’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Gemini Space Station, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Gemini Space Station.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Gemini Space Station’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating-margin compression, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 2,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Gemini Space Station at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedOther material event.
Gemini Space Station filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-14: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Gemini Space Station filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Gemini Space Station filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-14: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Coinbase, Robinhood or Binance.US win incremental U.S. retail and institutional crypto flow by offering lower fees, deeper liquidity or broader products.
- Coinbase, Robinhood or Binance force industry take-rate compression faster than Gemini can reduce operating costs.
- Crypto capital markets close to loss-making issuers after a market drawdown, limiting Gemini’s ability to raise equity or debt on acceptable terms.
- A proof-of-reserves, audit, custody or asset-segregation controversy undermines customer confidence in Gemini’s solvency.
GEMI news
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Financial statements
GEMI income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
GEMI: quick answers
- When does Gemini Space Station (GEMI) report earnings next?
- Gemini Space Station's next results are projected for November 12, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 13, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is GEMI's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 14.8M GEMI shares were sold short, 27.1% of its shares outstanding, up 14.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. GEMI short interest history
- Which well-known investors own GEMI?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported GEMI shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
GEMI in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported GEMI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 0.00% | $298K | No change | Q2 2026 |
