First Watch Restaurant Group
FWRGNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $13.44 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $13.10–$13.60 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $9.88–$18.77 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own FWRG if First Watch can compound value by growing high-average-unit daytime-brunch restaurants while converting incremental sales into cash — but that requires defending margins through cost control as it scales, or the stock’s premium multiple will.
FWRG price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Sustained top-line growth will be driven primarily by a combination of new restaurant openings and ongoing same-store sales growth rather than one-off price effects.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue rose from $601,193,000 (FY2021) to $1,222,501,000 (FY2025), showing consistent multi-year expansion. If revenue growth is structural (new units + comp growth), operating cash flow and scale benefits follow; if it’s transient, valuation depends on short-lived trends and is vulnerable.
Watch: A sustained drop in customer traffic or average check (e.g., competitors capturing daytime market share or a low-cost entrant scaling) that reduces same-store sales.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue rose from $601,193,000 (FY2021) to $1,222,501,000 (FY2025), showing consistent multi-year expansion.
Open source ↗Operating-margin resilience — the ability to hold or expand operating income as revenue grows — is the critical driver of value because margins determine free-cash-flow conversion and EPS leverage.HoldingMateriality: High
Operating income increased from $22,243,000 (FY2021) to $41,267,000 (FY2023) but then declined to $27,511,000 (FY2025), showing margin sensitivity to cost or operating changes. If margins recover or stabilize, growth will translate into meaningful EPS and FCF per share expansion; if margins deteriorate, revenue growth may not produce shareholder returns.
Watch: Sustained food/labor inflation or higher benefits costs outpacing menu pricing and productivity gains.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income increased from $22,243,000 (FY2021) to $41,267,000 (FY2023) but then declined to $27,511,000 (FY2025), showing margin sensitivity to cost.
Open source ↗First Watch’s growth can be funded without meaningful dilution because the business converts sales to operating cash flow reliably, enabling reinvestment into new restaurants and returning capital to shareholders.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow grew from $62,937,000 (FY2022) to $125,912,000 (FY2025), roughly doubling over three years while revenue increased. High and predictable cash conversion supports unit growth, deleveraging, buybacks/dividends, and increases per-share economics; poor cash conversion forces dilutive financing or slowed openings.
Watch: Material increase in capex per new store (e.g., higher build or lease costs) that consumes operating cash flow and forces external funding.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow grew from $62,937,000 (FY2022) to $125,912,000 (FY2025), roughly doubling over three years while revenue increased.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Sustained top-line growth will be driven primarily by a combination of new restaurant openings and ongoing same-store sales growth rather than one-off price effects. If revenue growth is structural (new units + comp growth), operating cash flow and scale benefits follow; if it’s transient, valuation depends on short-lived trends and is vulnerable.
Operating-margin resilience — the ability to hold or expand operating income as revenue grows — is the critical driver of value because margins determine free-cash-flow conversion and EPS leverage. If margins recover or stabilize, growth will translate into meaningful EPS and FCF per share expansion; if margins deteriorate, revenue growth may not produce shareholder returns.
First Watch’s growth can be funded without meaningful dilution because the business converts sales to operating cash flow reliably, enabling reinvestment into new restaurants and returning capital to shareholders. High and predictable cash conversion supports unit growth, deleveraging, buybacks/dividends, and increases per-share economics; poor cash conversion forces dilutive financing or slowed openings.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
First Watch can compound value by growing high-average-unit daytime-brunch restaurants while converting incremental sales into cash — but that requires defending margins through cost control as it scales, or the stock’s premium multiple will.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for First Watch Restaurant Group
Where the evidence on First Watch Restaurant Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Sustained top-line growth will be driven primarily by a combination of new restaurant openings and ongoing same-store sales growth rather than one-off price effects.
Operating-margin resilience — the ability to hold or expand operating income as revenue grows — is the critical driver of value because margins determine free-cash-flow conversion and EPS leverage.
First Watch’s growth can be funded without meaningful dilution because the business converts sales to operating cash flow reliably, enabling reinvestment into new restaurants and returning capital to shareholders.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained drop in customer traffic or average check (e.g., competitors capturing daytime market share or a low-cost entrant scaling) that reduces same-store sales.
Sustained food/labor inflation or higher benefits costs outpacing menu pricing and productivity gains.
Material increase in capex per new store (e.g., higher build or lease costs) that consumes operating cash flow and forces external funding.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · First Watch Restaurant Group
Loading the break-condition record for First Watch Restaurant Group.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
First Watch Restaurant Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
First Watch Restaurant Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
First Watch Restaurant Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-04: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained drop in customer traffic or average check (e.g., competitors capturing daytime market share or a low-cost entrant scaling) that reduces same-store sales.
- Sustained food/labor inflation or higher benefits costs outpacing menu pricing and productivity gains.
- Material increase in capex per new store (e.g., higher build or lease costs) that consumes operating cash flow and forces external funding.
FWRG news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
FWRG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.