Forgent Power Solutions
FPSNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $21.48 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $22.71–$24.75 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 11.9M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $17.67–$66.00 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own FPS if Forgent leverages proprietary engineering, broad product breadth and short lead times to win engineered-to-order electrical distribution work for data centers, utilities and industrial customers, converting a large backlog into high-margin revenue and cash generation.
FPS price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Forgent's engineering-led, vertically integrated capability (proprietary design tools + application engineers) enables superior win rates and faster conversion of backlog into revenue, sustaining growth.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue grew 89% year-over-year to $1,420,059,000 in FY2026 (MD&A). If true, the $3.0B backlog will translate into multi-year revenue growth and limited discounting; if false, backlog will erode or convert at lower rates/prices, stopping growth and pressuring margins.
Watch: Large customers (hyperscalers, major utilities or OEM integrators) elect to in-source powertrain or shift contracts to low-cost competitors, reducing repeatable backlog conversion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue grew 89% year-over-year to $1,420,059,000 in FY2026 (MD&A).
Open source ↗Because customers prioritize reliability and custom solutions, Forgent can sustain above-commodity gross margins driven by a heavy custom and powertrain product mix.HoldingMateriality: High
Gross profit increased from $278,066,000 in FY2025 to $497,600,000 in FY2026. Sustained premium gross margins protect operating profits as revenue scales; if margins compress, growth will produce less free cash flow and impair valuation.
Watch: Incumbent OEMs or low-cost manufacturers push integrated, lower-priced solutions into data-center and T&D projects, forcing price-led competition.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit increased from $278,066,000 in FY2025 to $497,600,000 in FY2026.
Open source ↗Forgent converts growth into operating cash flow and operating income through operational leverage and working-capital management as production scales.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow rose from $45,022,000 in FY2025 to $109,081,000 in FY2026. Sustained positive operating cash flows will fund capex, working-capital needs and deleveraging without equity dilution; failure forces external financing or slower growth.
Watch: Backlog growth forces heavy, uneven working-capital builds (inventory and receivables) that outpace operating cash generation, requiring debt or equity raises.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow rose from $45,022,000 in FY2025 to $109,081,000 in FY2026.
Open source ↗Forgent's growth and margins are materially exposed to the Data Center end market and to North American demand; a sharp slowdown or sourcing shift in that market would disproportionately hurt results.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Management reports approximately 59% of fiscal 2026 revenues came from the Data Center market and that substantially all revenues were from customers located in North America (Business / MD&A). Concentration means a demand pivot (or a few customers changing sourcing) will show up quickly as revenue and margin weakness; diversification or new markets failing to materialize would leave growth impaired.
Watch: Hyperscaler data-center capex materially slows or shifts procurement strategy toward internal design/in-sourcing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Management reports approximately 59% of fiscal 2026 revenues came from the Data Center market and that substantially all revenues were.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Forgent's engineering-led, vertically integrated capability (proprietary design tools + application engineers) enables superior win rates and faster conversion of backlog into revenue, sustaining growth. If true, the $3.0B backlog will translate into multi-year revenue growth and limited discounting; if false, backlog will erode or convert at lower rates/prices, stopping growth and pressuring margins.
Because customers prioritize reliability and custom solutions, Forgent can sustain above-commodity gross margins driven by a heavy custom and powertrain product mix. Sustained premium gross margins protect operating profits as revenue scales; if margins compress, growth will produce less free cash flow and impair valuation.
Forgent converts growth into operating cash flow and operating income through operational leverage and working-capital management as production scales. Sustained positive operating cash flows will fund capex, working-capital needs and deleveraging without equity dilution; failure forces external financing or slower growth.
Forgent's growth and margins are materially exposed to the Data Center end market and to North American demand; a sharp slowdown or sourcing shift in that market would disproportionately hurt results. Concentration means a demand pivot (or a few customers changing sourcing) will show up quickly as revenue and margin weakness; diversification or new markets failing to materialize would leave growth impaired.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Forgent leverages proprietary engineering, broad product breadth and short lead times to win engineered-to-order electrical distribution work for data centers, utilities and industrial customers, converting a large backlog into high-margin revenue and cash generation.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Forgent Power Solutions
Where the evidence on Forgent Power Solutions stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Forgent's engineering-led, vertically integrated capability (proprietary design tools + application engineers) enables superior win rates and faster conversion of backlog into revenue, sustaining growth.
Because customers prioritize reliability and custom solutions, Forgent can sustain above-commodity gross margins driven by a heavy custom and powertrain product mix.
Forgent converts growth into operating cash flow and operating income through operational leverage and working-capital management as production scales.
Forgent's growth and margins are materially exposed to the Data Center end market and to North American demand; a sharp slowdown or sourcing shift in that market would disproportionately hurt results.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large customers (hyperscalers, major utilities or OEM integrators) elect to in-source powertrain or shift contracts to low-cost competitors, reducing repeatable backlog conversion.
Incumbent OEMs or low-cost manufacturers push integrated, lower-priced solutions into data-center and T&D projects, forcing price-led competition.
Backlog growth forces heavy, uneven working-capital builds (inventory and receivables) that outpace operating cash generation, requiring debt or equity raises.
Company research
Research on Forgent Power Solutions
- Reporting · Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: FPS) Generates Cash as Sales Surge
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: FPS) kept about $43 million after quarterly capital spending. A bigger order book brings the next funding test.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Forgent Power Solutions’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Forgent Power Solutions, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Forgent Power Solutions.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Forgent Power Solutions filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Forgent Power Solutions filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-22: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Forgent Power Solutions filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-15: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large customers (hyperscalers, major utilities or OEM integrators) elect to in-source powertrain or shift contracts to low-cost competitors, reducing repeatable backlog conversion.
- Incumbent OEMs or low-cost manufacturers push integrated, lower-priced solutions into data-center and T&D projects, forcing price-led competition.
- Backlog growth forces heavy, uneven working-capital builds (inventory and receivables) that outpace operating cash generation, requiring debt or equity raises.
- Hyperscaler data-center capex materially slows or shifts procurement strategy toward internal design/in-sourcing.
FPS news
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Financial statements
FPS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
FPS: quick answers
- What is FPS's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 13.8M FPS shares were sold short, 5.01% of its shares outstanding, up 7.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FPS short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded FPS?
- 1 trade in FPS has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed FPS trade
- Which well-known investors own FPS?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FPS shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont), 2.4%; Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.4%. Fund portfolios
FPS in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported FPS shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 2.4% | $1.1B | New | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.43% | $35.1M | +515.6% | Q2 2026 |