Fox

FOXANASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$67.98
+$0.61 (+0.91%)Today 1M +7.95%
After hours$67.980.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$67.37
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$66.44–$67.99
Regular-session low and high so far today.
9.2M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$48.34–$76.39
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own FOXA if its must-have content keeps bargaining power as audiences migrate from traditional MVPDs to virtual MVPDs and digital platforms.

FOXA price history

Latest price$67.98Today+$0.61 (+0.91%)
FOXA +8.41%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Fox’s news and sports content remains must-have enough for traditional MVPDs, virtual MVPDs and digital platforms to keep carrying and monetizing it on attractive terms.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue was $17.126 billion in FY2026, up from $16.300 billion in FY2025. If this holds, Fox can defend affiliate and advertising economics despite cord-cutting; if it breaks, the revenue base becomes a melting ice cube.

    Watch: Large distributors such as Comcast, Charter or YouTube TV refuse affiliate-fee increases or move Fox networks into lower-penetration packages.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue was $17.126 billion in FY2026, up from $16.300 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Fox can keep sports, news and entertainment programming costs from absorbing the economic value of its audience reach.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual net income was $1.727 billion in FY2026, positive and above FY2024 net income of $1.554 billion. This determines whether revenue durability becomes owner earnings or is competed away in rights fees and production expense.

    Watch: Sports-rights auctions against Disney/ESPN, NBCUniversal, Amazon or YouTube force Fox to renew key rights at economics that cannot be recovered through affiliate fees or ads.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual net income was $1.727 billion in FY2026, positive and above FY2024 net income of $1.554 billion.

    Open source ↗
  • Fox’s licensing and advertising model continues to convert audience ownership into cash, not just accounting revenue.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $1.970 billion in FY2026. Operating cash flow funds rights investments, digital initiatives, shareholder returns and downside protection; if cash conversion weakens, reported earnings are less valuable.

    Watch: Advertisers delay or reduce spending in a weak ad market, lengthening cash collection and lowering upfront demand.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $1.970 billion in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • Fox maintains enough balance-sheet liquidity to absorb advertising cycles, invest in content and avoid forced strategic decisions during industry disruption.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash was $4.205 billion at FY2026 year-end. Liquidity gives management time to adapt the model; if the cash cushion is spent or impaired, the company has less room to defend its franchises.

    Watch: A large acquisition or sports-rights commitment consumes cash without strengthening distribution leverage.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash was $4.205 billion at FY2026 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Management turns the mature content franchise into per-share value rather than diluting owners or chasing low-return growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS was $3.84 in FY2026, above $2.11 in FY2022 and $2.33 in FY2023. For a slower-growth media company, the owner’s outcome depends heavily on per-share compounding and disciplined capital allocation.

    Watch: Management issues equity or uses cash for acquisitions that do not improve Fox’s distribution leverage or content economics.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS was $3.84 in FY2026, above $2.11 in FY2022 and $2.33 in FY2023.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Fox’s news and sports content remains must-have enough for traditional MVPDs, virtual MVPDs and digital platforms to keep carrying and monetizing it on attractive terms. If this holds, Fox can defend affiliate and advertising economics despite cord-cutting; if it breaks, the revenue base becomes a melting ice cube.

Fox can keep sports, news and entertainment programming costs from absorbing the economic value of its audience reach. This determines whether revenue durability becomes owner earnings or is competed away in rights fees and production expense.

Fox’s licensing and advertising model continues to convert audience ownership into cash, not just accounting revenue. Operating cash flow funds rights investments, digital initiatives, shareholder returns and downside protection; if cash conversion weakens, reported earnings are less valuable.

Fox maintains enough balance-sheet liquidity to absorb advertising cycles, invest in content and avoid forced strategic decisions during industry disruption. Liquidity gives management time to adapt the model; if the cash cushion is spent or impaired, the company has less room to defend its franchises.

Management turns the mature content franchise into per-share value rather than diluting owners or chasing low-return growth. For a slower-growth media company, the owner’s outcome depends heavily on per-share compounding and disciplined capital allocation.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its must-have content keeps bargaining power as audiences migrate from traditional MVPDs to virtual MVPDs and digital platforms.

Evidence assessed Oct 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Fox

Where the evidence on Fox stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Fox’s news and sports content remains must-have enough for traditional MVPDs, virtual MVPDs and digital platforms to keep carrying and monetizing it on attractive terms.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Fox can keep sports, news and entertainment programming costs from absorbing the economic value of its audience reach.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Fox’s licensing and advertising model continues to convert audience ownership into cash, not just accounting revenue.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Fox maintains enough balance-sheet liquidity to absorb advertising cycles, invest in content and avoid forced strategic decisions during industry disruption.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management turns the mature content franchise into per-share value rather than diluting owners or chasing low-return growth.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large distributors such as Comcast, Charter or YouTube TV refuse affiliate-fee increases or move Fox networks into lower-penetration packages.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Sports-rights auctions against Disney/ESPN, NBCUniversal, Amazon or YouTube force Fox to renew key rights at economics that cannot be recovered through affiliate fees or ads.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Advertisers delay or reduce spending in a weak ad market, lengthening cash collection and lowering upfront demand.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Fox’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Fox, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Fox.

peers+15%-20%-2%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -2% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -20%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Several kinds of break have stacked on Fox at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Fox filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-06: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Fox filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-09: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Fox filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large distributors such as Comcast, Charter or YouTube TV refuse affiliate-fee increases or move Fox networks into lower-penetration packages.
  • Sports-rights auctions against Disney/ESPN, NBCUniversal, Amazon or YouTube force Fox to renew key rights at economics that cannot be recovered through affiliate fees or ads.
  • Advertisers delay or reduce spending in a weak ad market, lengthening cash collection and lowering upfront demand.
  • A large acquisition or sports-rights commitment consumes cash without strengthening distribution leverage.
  • Management issues equity or uses cash for acquisitions that do not improve Fox’s distribution leverage or content economics.

FOXA news

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Financial statements

FOXA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

FOXA: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded FOXA?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 6 trades in FOXA by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 5 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed FOXA trade
Which well-known investors own FOXA?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FOXA shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller), 2.2%. Fund portfolios

FOXA in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported FOXA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office2.2%$115MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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