Federal National Mortgage Association
FNMAOTC Markets OTCQBUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $4.33 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $4.30–$4.46 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 915.2K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 3:59 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $2.96–$12.39 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own FNMA if Fannie Mae creates durable value by converting its scale in mortgage guaranties into steady guaranty-fee revenues while using its large capital and liquidity buffers to absorb credit cycles — but shareholder outcomes are constrained.
FNMA price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Fannie Mae's revenue and durable earnings primarily come from its guaranty-fee franchise whose scale and market share sustain fee volumes and pricing power.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Item 1 Business: "Guaranty fees are the primary source of our revenues.". If guaranty fees remain stable and Fannie retains market share, revenues and recurring earnings should be steady; losing franchise scale or pricing would materially reduce core revenue.
Watch: A regulatory shift that reduces Fannie Mae's ability to guarantee loans or forces substantial pricing changes (e.g., major GSE reform or private-label market expansion).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business: "Guaranty fees are the primary source of our revenues.".
Open source ↗Fannie Mae's earnings volatility is driven by credit performance (provisions for credit losses and delinquency trends); credit losses and fair-value swings directly move net income even when guaranty fees are stable.StrengtheningMateriality: High
MD&A and Item 1 note the 2025 net income decline ($14.4B) was primarily driven by a $1.8B shift from a benefit for credit losses in 2024 to a provision for credit losses in 2025 and decreased fair value gains. Worsening delinquencies or home-price declines can convert stable revenue into much lower net income via provisions and losses; investors must monitor credit indicators, not just fee volumes.
Watch: A sustained deterioration in home prices or a spike in unemployment that increases delinquencies and forces materially higher provisions.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A and Item 1 note the 2025 net income decline ($14.4B) was primarily driven by a $1.8B shift from a.
Open source ↗Fannie Mae's large net worth / equity buffer allows it to sustain guaranty capacity through cycles and absorb credit shocks without needing to curtail core activities.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Equity increased to $109.012 billion as of December 31, 2025 from $94.657 billion in 2024 (equity = 109,012,000,000 in 2025). A strong equity base preserves the guaranty franchise and reduces the probability that FHFA would materially curtail operations; erosion of equity would constrain business and raise regulatory intervention risk.
Watch: A severe housing downturn or concentrated loan losses that materially deplete equity (e.g., widespread defaults and large severity).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Equity increased to $109.012 billion as of December 31, 2025 from $94.657 billion in 2024 (equity = 109,012,000,000 in 2025).
Open source ↗Fannie Mae's liquidity and operating cash flows are large but volatile because fair-value marks, mortgage prepayments and hedging drive material swings in operating cash flow; liquidity depth supports market functioning but can vary with market conditions.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow swung from -10,520,000,000 in 2024 to 23,989,000,000 in 2025, demonstrating material volatility. Liquidity cushions allow Fannie to keep issuing guarantees through stress, but large negative cash-flow episodes during dislocation can strain funding and raise regulatory scrutiny.
Watch: A market dislocation that freezes short-term funding markets, forces margin calls on derivatives, or causes sudden prepayment/hedge mismatches.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow swung from -10,520,000,000 in 2024 to 23,989,000,000 in 2025, demonstrating material volatility.
Open source ↗Shareholder outcomes are capped by FHFA conservatorship and Treasury agreements: until terms change, EPS and distributable earnings to shareholders will likely remain negligible even if the business generates accounting profits.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
EPS diluted reported as 0.0 in 2023-2025 (eps_diluted = 0.0 for 2023, 2024, 2025) and Item 1 explicitly states conservatorship and Treasury agreements significantly restrict stockholder rights. Operational success without policy change may not translate into shareholder returns; the primary lever for stock appreciation is regulatory action, not just operational performance.
Watch: FHFA and Treasury keep the profit sweep in place or adopt policies that permanently prioritize Treasury and public-policy objectives over shareholder distributions.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
EPS diluted reported as 0.0 in 2023-2025 (eps_diluted = 0.0 for 2023, 2024, 2025) and Item 1 explicitly states conservatorship.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Fannie Mae's revenue and durable earnings primarily come from its guaranty-fee franchise whose scale and market share sustain fee volumes and pricing power. If guaranty fees remain stable and Fannie retains market share, revenues and recurring earnings should be steady; losing franchise scale or pricing would materially reduce core revenue.
Fannie Mae's earnings volatility is driven by credit performance (provisions for credit losses and delinquency trends); credit losses and fair-value swings directly move net income even when guaranty fees are stable. Worsening delinquencies or home-price declines can convert stable revenue into much lower net income via provisions and losses; investors must monitor credit indicators, not just fee volumes.
Fannie Mae's large net worth / equity buffer allows it to sustain guaranty capacity through cycles and absorb credit shocks without needing to curtail core activities. A strong equity base preserves the guaranty franchise and reduces the probability that FHFA would materially curtail operations; erosion of equity would constrain business and raise regulatory intervention risk.
Fannie Mae's liquidity and operating cash flows are large but volatile because fair-value marks, mortgage prepayments and hedging drive material swings in operating cash flow; liquidity depth supports market functioning but can vary with market conditions. Liquidity cushions allow Fannie to keep issuing guarantees through stress, but large negative cash-flow episodes during dislocation can strain funding and raise regulatory scrutiny.
Shareholder outcomes are capped by FHFA conservatorship and Treasury agreements: until terms change, EPS and distributable earnings to shareholders will likely remain negligible even if the business generates accounting profits. Operational success without policy change may not translate into shareholder returns; the primary lever for stock appreciation is regulatory action, not just operational performance.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Fannie Mae creates durable value by converting its scale in mortgage guaranties into steady guaranty-fee revenues while using its large capital and liquidity buffers to absorb credit cycles — but shareholder outcomes are constrained.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae
Where the evidence on Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 6, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Fannie Mae's revenue and durable earnings primarily come from its guaranty-fee franchise whose scale and market share sustain fee volumes and pricing power.
Fannie Mae's earnings volatility is driven by credit performance (provisions for credit losses and delinquency trends); credit losses and fair-value swings directly move net income even when guaranty fees are stable.
Fannie Mae's large net worth / equity buffer allows it to sustain guaranty capacity through cycles and absorb credit shocks without needing to curtail core activities.
Fannie Mae's liquidity and operating cash flows are large but volatile because fair-value marks, mortgage prepayments and hedging drive material swings in operating cash flow; liquidity depth supports market functioning but can vary with market conditions.
Shareholder outcomes are capped by FHFA conservatorship and Treasury agreements: until terms change, EPS and distributable earnings to shareholders will likely remain negligible even if the business generates accounting profits.
Bear case: what would count against it
A regulatory shift that reduces Fannie Mae's ability to guarantee loans or forces substantial pricing changes (e.g., major GSE reform or private-label market expansion).
A sustained deterioration in home prices or a spike in unemployment that increases delinquencies and forces materially higher provisions.
A severe housing downturn or concentrated loan losses that materially deplete equity (e.g., widespread defaults and large severity).
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae
Loading the break-condition record for Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A regulatory shift that reduces Fannie Mae's ability to guarantee loans or forces substantial pricing changes (e.g., major GSE reform or private-label market expansion).
- A sustained deterioration in home prices or a spike in unemployment that increases delinquencies and forces materially higher provisions.
- A severe housing downturn or concentrated loan losses that materially deplete equity (e.g., widespread defaults and large severity).
- A market dislocation that freezes short-term funding markets, forces margin calls on derivatives, or causes sudden prepayment/hedge mismatches.
- FHFA and Treasury keep the profit sweep in place or adopt policies that permanently prioritize Treasury and public-policy objectives over shareholder distributions.
FNMA news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
FNMA income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
FNMA: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded FNMA?
- 7 trades in FNMA have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed FNMA trade