Fluor

FLRNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$50.62
+$0.18 (+0.36%)Today 1M −0.12%
After hours$49.61−2.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$50.44
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$50.32–$51.70
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.9M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 16 projected
Projected for 2027-02-16 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$39.33–$58.35
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own FLR if its large-project engineering and construction franchise turns stable customer demand into disciplined, cash-generative work rather than repeating 2025 project-margin failures.

FLR price history

Latest price$50.62Today+$0.18 (+0.36%)
FLR +1.04%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Large industrial and infrastructure customers still need Fluor’s project-delivery capability, so the franchise can keep converting complex capital-project demand into work even after a weak profit year.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue was $15.503 billion in FY2025, broadly in line with $15.474 billion in FY2023 despite the profit setback. If demand for Fluor’s role remains intact, margin repair can create value; if customers shift awards elsewhere, there is no recovery base to fix.

    Watch: Major energy, mining, infrastructure, or government clients defer capital projects because of commodity prices, rates, permitting delays, or budget pressure.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue was $15.503 billion in FY2025, broadly in line with $15.474 billion in FY2023 despite the profit setback.

    Open source ↗
  • Fluor’s margin recovery depends on contract selection, estimating discipline, and risk-sharing terms that prevent labor, materials, schedule, or execution problems from being absorbed by Fluor rather than the customer.WeakeningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit improved from $355 million in FY2022 to $477 million in FY2023 and $574 million in FY2024, showing the model can produce positive project spread. This is the core value lever: the same revenue can either compound equity or destroy it depending on who bears project risk.

    Watch: Fluor accepts fixed-price or lump-sum contracts without adequate escalation clauses for labor, materials, or schedule delays.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit improved from $355 million in FY2022 to $477 million in FY2023 and $574 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Fluor must translate its engineering and project-management scale into positive operating leverage after corporate costs; otherwise the business is a low-margin risk aggregator rather than a durable compounder.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating income was positive in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, including $463 million in FY2024. Operating profit is where project execution, overhead control, and scale economics show whether customer demand actually belongs to shareholders.

    Watch: Recurring project charges continue even on newer awards, suggesting the problem is not confined to legacy contracts.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income was positive in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, including $463 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • The asset-light EPC model should generate cash when milestone billings, client advances, and collections are aligned, but Fluor’s value depends on project execution avoiding working-capital drains and disputed recoveries.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, rising to $828 million in FY2024. Cash conversion determines whether reported recovery can fund bonding capacity, resilience, and shareholder value without new capital.

    Watch: Customers delay milestone payments, increase retainage, or dispute change orders and claims.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024, rising to $828 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Fluor’s cash position gives it time to absorb project volatility, support bonding and customer confidence, and repair execution without distressed financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash and cash equivalents were $2.135 billion at FY2025 year-end. Liquidity can keep a cyclical or execution downturn from becoming a permanent equity impairment.

    Watch: Additional large project losses, legal claims, or customer disputes consume cash faster than new advances replenish it.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash and cash equivalents were $2.135 billion at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Large industrial and infrastructure customers still need Fluor’s project-delivery capability, so the franchise can keep converting complex capital-project demand into work even after a weak profit year. If demand for Fluor’s role remains intact, margin repair can create value; if customers shift awards elsewhere, there is no recovery base to fix.

Fluor’s margin recovery depends on contract selection, estimating discipline, and risk-sharing terms that prevent labor, materials, schedule, or execution problems from being absorbed by Fluor rather than the customer. This is the core value lever: the same revenue can either compound equity or destroy it depending on who bears project risk.

Fluor must translate its engineering and project-management scale into positive operating leverage after corporate costs; otherwise the business is a low-margin risk aggregator rather than a durable compounder. Operating profit is where project execution, overhead control, and scale economics show whether customer demand actually belongs to shareholders.

The asset-light EPC model should generate cash when milestone billings, client advances, and collections are aligned, but Fluor’s value depends on project execution avoiding working-capital drains and disputed recoveries. Cash conversion determines whether reported recovery can fund bonding capacity, resilience, and shareholder value without new capital.

Fluor’s cash position gives it time to absorb project volatility, support bonding and customer confidence, and repair execution without distressed financing. Liquidity can keep a cyclical or execution downturn from becoming a permanent equity impairment.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its large-project engineering and construction franchise turns stable customer demand into disciplined, cash-generative work rather than repeating 2025 project-margin failures.

Evidence assessed Nov 7, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Fluor

Where the evidence on Fluor disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 2 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Large industrial and infrastructure customers still need Fluor’s project-delivery capability, so the franchise can keep converting complex capital-project demand into work even after a weak profit year.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The asset-light EPC model should generate cash when milestone billings, client advances, and collections are aligned, but Fluor’s value depends on project execution avoiding working-capital drains and disputed recoveries.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Fluor’s cash position gives it time to absorb project volatility, support bonding and customer confidence, and repair execution without distressed financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Fluor’s margin recovery depends on contract selection, estimating discipline, and risk-sharing terms that prevent labor, materials, schedule, or execution problems from being absorbed by Fluor rather than the customer.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Fluor must translate its engineering and project-management scale into positive operating leverage after corporate costs; otherwise the business is a low-margin risk aggregator rather than a durable compounder.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Fluor’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Fluor, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Fluor.

peers+18%-17%+1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical +1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+18% to -17%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Fluor filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Fluor filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-07: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Fluor filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-04: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major energy, mining, infrastructure, or government clients defer capital projects because of commodity prices, rates, permitting delays, or budget pressure.
  • Fluor accepts fixed-price or lump-sum contracts without adequate escalation clauses for labor, materials, or schedule delays.
  • Recurring project charges continue even on newer awards, suggesting the problem is not confined to legacy contracts.
  • Customers delay milestone payments, increase retainage, or dispute change orders and claims.
  • Additional large project losses, legal claims, or customer disputes consume cash faster than new advances replenish it.

FLR news

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Financial statements

FLR income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

FLR: quick answers

When does Fluor (FLR) report earnings next?
Fluor's next results are projected for February 16, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 6, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is FLR's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 12.4M FLR shares were sold short, 9.71% of its shares outstanding, up 14.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FLR short interest history
Have members of Congress traded FLR?
19 trades in FLR have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed FLR trade
Which well-known investors own FLR?
4 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FLR shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Starboard Value (Jeff Smith), 1.8%; Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller), 1.0%; Maverick Capital, 0.9%. Fund portfolios

FLR in well-known investors’ portfolios

4 of 37 funds reported FLR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Jeff SmithStarboard Value1.8%$83.1M—Q2 2026
Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office0.99%$51.5MNewQ2 2026
Maverick Capital0.86%$97.3M+31.2%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.03%$8.3M−17.1%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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