Flowers Foods
FLONYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $6.45 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $6.20–$6.36 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 7.9M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $5.40–$12.14 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own FLO if recent profit weakness proves temporary and its larger asset base converts back into durable cash earnings.
FLO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Flowers’ position as a large U.S. packaged-bakery supplier remains valuable because retailers need dependable, high-frequency bakery supply and shelf execution, allowing demand to keep converting into sales despite a mature category.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Profile description identifies Flowers as the second-largest producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods in the U.S. If shelf access and supply reliability hold, Flowers can remain a cash-generative staple; if retailers replace that role, the whole defensive-growth premise weakens.
Watch: Major grocery customers shift shelf space from branded packaged bakery to retailer private-label programs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Profile description identifies Flowers as the second-largest producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods in the U.S.
Open source ↗Flowers’ brands and retailer relationships must retain enough pricing power to offset commodity, labor, freight, and promotional pressure; otherwise scale produces revenue without acceptable earnings.WeakeningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income recovered from $172.870 million in FY2024 to $348.292 million in FY2025, showing the model has recently produced better profitability. This is the difference between a defensive compounder and a low-margin volume business with limited shareholder value creation.
Watch: Retailers refuse further price increases and require higher trade promotion to defend shelf space.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income recovered from $172.870 million in FY2024 to $348.292 million in FY2025, showing the model has recently.
Open source ↗The mature packaged-bakery model must keep converting repeat consumer demand into operating cash flow, giving management funds for reinvestment, debt service, dividends, or buybacks even when reported earnings are volatile.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $344.610 million in FY2022 to $446.203 million in FY2026. For a slow-growth food company, owner returns depend more on durable cash conversion than headline revenue growth.
Watch: Retailer payment terms or inventory requirements absorb working capital and reduce cash conversion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $344.610 million in FY2022 to $446.203 million in FY2026.
Open source ↗Flowers’ expanded asset base must translate into distribution, manufacturing, or portfolio earnings benefits rather than asset bloat; scale is valuable only if incremental assets earn adequate returns.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Total assets increased from $3.400 billion at FY2025 year-end to $4.184 billion at FY2026 year-end, indicating a materially larger operating platform. If new or expanded assets do not lift earnings, per-share value can stagnate even while the company gets larger.
Watch: Integration or execution failures prevent new assets from producing manufacturing, procurement, or distribution efficiencies.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Total assets increased from $3.400 billion at FY2025 year-end to $4.184 billion at FY2026 year-end, indicating a materially larger operating.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Flowers’ position as a large U.S. packaged-bakery supplier remains valuable because retailers need dependable, high-frequency bakery supply and shelf execution, allowing demand to keep converting into sales despite a mature category. If shelf access and supply reliability hold, Flowers can remain a cash-generative staple; if retailers replace that role, the whole defensive-growth premise weakens.
Flowers’ brands and retailer relationships must retain enough pricing power to offset commodity, labor, freight, and promotional pressure; otherwise scale produces revenue without acceptable earnings. This is the difference between a defensive compounder and a low-margin volume business with limited shareholder value creation.
The mature packaged-bakery model must keep converting repeat consumer demand into operating cash flow, giving management funds for reinvestment, debt service, dividends, or buybacks even when reported earnings are volatile. For a slow-growth food company, owner returns depend more on durable cash conversion than headline revenue growth.
Flowers’ expanded asset base must translate into distribution, manufacturing, or portfolio earnings benefits rather than asset bloat; scale is valuable only if incremental assets earn adequate returns. If new or expanded assets do not lift earnings, per-share value can stagnate even while the company gets larger.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
recent profit weakness proves temporary and its larger asset base converts back into durable cash earnings.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Flowers Foods
Where the evidence on Flowers Foods disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 6, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 1 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Flowers’ position as a large U.S. packaged-bakery supplier remains valuable because retailers need dependable, high-frequency bakery supply and shelf execution, allowing demand to keep converting into sales despite a mature category.
The mature packaged-bakery model must keep converting repeat consumer demand into operating cash flow, giving management funds for reinvestment, debt service, dividends, or buybacks even when reported earnings are volatile.
Flowers’ expanded asset base must translate into distribution, manufacturing, or portfolio earnings benefits rather than asset bloat; scale is valuable only if incremental assets earn adequate returns.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Flowers’ brands and retailer relationships must retain enough pricing power to offset commodity, labor, freight, and promotional pressure; otherwise scale produces revenue without acceptable earnings.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Flowers Foods
No break has crossed Flowers Foods’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Flowers Foods filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Flowers Foods filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-20: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Flowers Foods filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-05: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Major grocery customers shift shelf space from branded packaged bakery to retailer private-label programs.
- Retailers refuse further price increases and require higher trade promotion to defend shelf space.
- Retailer payment terms or inventory requirements absorb working capital and reduce cash conversion.
- Integration or execution failures prevent new assets from producing manufacturing, procurement, or distribution efficiencies.
FLO news
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Financial statements
FLO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
FLO: quick answers
- When does Flowers Foods (FLO) report earnings next?
- Flowers Foods's next results were projected for November 5, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC, and it has not filed them yet. It last reported on August 20, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is FLO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 50.7M FLO shares were sold short, 23.9% of its shares outstanding, up 9.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 9.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FLO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded FLO?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in FLO by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed FLO trade
- Which well-known investors own FLO?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FLO shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
FLO in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported FLO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $2.9M | +118.5% | Q2 2026 |