National Beverage

FIZZNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$36.74
−$0.78 (−2.08%)Today 1M +22.94%
After hours$36.740.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$37.52
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$36.35–$37.18
Regular-session low and high so far today.
391.1K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$28.97–$38.45
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own FIZZ if National Beverage can defend shelf space and pricing in carbonated waters and soft drinks without a promotion war, turning a no-growth revenue base into durable high-margin cash.

FIZZ price history

Latest price$36.74Today−$0.78 (-2.08%)
FIZZ +16.63%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Consumer pull and retailer shelf access remain strong enough that National Beverage does not have to buy volume with deep discounting, even though the category is mature.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue was $1.181 billion in FY2026 versus $1.173 billion in FY2023, showing the demand base has not collapsed over the supplied four-year period. If this holds, flat-to-modest sales can still support a valuable cash-generating franchise; if it breaks, margins likely deteriorate before reported revenue fully reflects the shelf-space loss.

    Watch: Major retailers allocate incremental carbonated-water shelf space and displays to private label or larger national beverage companies.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue was $1.181 billion in FY2026 versus $1.173 billion in FY2023, showing the demand base has not collapsed.

    Open source ↗
  • Brand mix and pricing discipline continue to offset packaging, freight, and ingredient cost pressure without forcing permanent gross-margin giveback.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP gross profit increased from $396.8 million in FY2023 to $437.3 million in FY2026. Gross margin is the first place to see whether the company still has pricing power; if it loses that power, the high operating-profit model is worth less even if revenue remains stable.

    Watch: Aluminum can, packaging, freight, or sweetener inflation accelerates while retailers resist further price increases.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP gross profit increased from $396.8 million in FY2023 to $437.3 million in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • National Beverage’s operating model remains lean enough that stable gross profit converts into high operating income rather than being consumed by marketing, distribution, and overhead.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP operating income rose from $186.7 million in FY2023 to $230.1 million in FY2026. This is the main earnings-power lever: if defending the franchise requires structurally higher spending, the company can still sell beverages but at a lower valuation-quality margin profile.

    Watch: National Beverage must materially increase advertising, trade promotion, or retailer support to protect brand relevance and shelf space.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP operating income rose from $186.7 million in FY2023 to $230.1 million in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • The company’s cash-generative, low-liability balance sheet gives management flexibility to withstand category volatility and return or reinvest capital without relying on leverage.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP operating cash flow was $181.3 million in FY2026, close to FY2026 GAAP net income of $183.6 million. If cash conversion and balance-sheet strength hold, owners get resilience and optionality; if cash is consumed by working capital, capex, acquisitions, or payouts, the downside protection weakens.

    Watch: A large special dividend, acquisition, or capital project materially depletes the cash balance without improving competitive position.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP operating cash flow was $181.3 million in FY2026, close to FY2026 GAAP net income of $183.6 million.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Consumer pull and retailer shelf access remain strong enough that National Beverage does not have to buy volume with deep discounting, even though the category is mature. If this holds, flat-to-modest sales can still support a valuable cash-generating franchise; if it breaks, margins likely deteriorate before reported revenue fully reflects the shelf-space loss.

Brand mix and pricing discipline continue to offset packaging, freight, and ingredient cost pressure without forcing permanent gross-margin giveback. Gross margin is the first place to see whether the company still has pricing power; if it loses that power, the high operating-profit model is worth less even if revenue remains stable.

National Beverage’s operating model remains lean enough that stable gross profit converts into high operating income rather than being consumed by marketing, distribution, and overhead. This is the main earnings-power lever: if defending the franchise requires structurally higher spending, the company can still sell beverages but at a lower valuation-quality margin profile.

The company’s cash-generative, low-liability balance sheet gives management flexibility to withstand category volatility and return or reinvest capital without relying on leverage. If cash conversion and balance-sheet strength hold, owners get resilience and optionality; if cash is consumed by working capital, capex, acquisitions, or payouts, the downside protection weakens.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

National Beverage can defend shelf space and pricing in carbonated waters and soft drinks without a promotion war, turning a no-growth revenue base into durable high-margin cash.

Evidence assessed Oct 21, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for National Beverage

Where the evidence on National Beverage stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 21, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Consumer pull and retailer shelf access remain strong enough that National Beverage does not have to buy volume with deep discounting, even though the category is mature.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Brand mix and pricing discipline continue to offset packaging, freight, and ingredient cost pressure without forcing permanent gross-margin giveback.

    sec.gov ↗

  • National Beverage’s operating model remains lean enough that stable gross profit converts into high operating income rather than being consumed by marketing, distribution, and overhead.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The company’s cash-generative, low-liability balance sheet gives management flexibility to withstand category volatility and return or reinvest capital without relying on leverage.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Major retailers allocate incremental carbonated-water shelf space and displays to private label or larger national beverage companies.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Aluminum can, packaging, freight, or sweetener inflation accelerates while retailers resist further price increases.

    sec.gov ↗

  • National Beverage must materially increase advertising, trade promotion, or retailer support to protect brand relevance and shelf space.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · National Beverage

Loading the break-condition record for National Beverage.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    National Beverage filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-11: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    National Beverage filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-02: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major retailers allocate incremental carbonated-water shelf space and displays to private label or larger national beverage companies.
  • Aluminum can, packaging, freight, or sweetener inflation accelerates while retailers resist further price increases.
  • National Beverage must materially increase advertising, trade promotion, or retailer support to protect brand relevance and shelf space.
  • A large special dividend, acquisition, or capital project materially depletes the cash balance without improving competitive position.

FIZZ news

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Financial statements

FIZZ income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

FIZZ: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded FIZZ?
2 trades in FIZZ have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed FIZZ trade
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