Figma

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THESIS ALERT

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$18.97
+$0.34 (+1.83%)Today 1M −17.20%
After hours$18.69−1.48%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$18.63
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$18.66–$19.12
Regular-session low and high so far today.
8.6M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 17 projected
Projected for 2027-02-17 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$16.60–$45.42
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own FIG if its collaborative design workspace remains central to how teams build digital products and that demand begins to show real operating leverage.

FIG price history

Latest price$18.97Today+$0.34 (+1.83%)
FIG -11.58%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Figma’s shared-workspace position in digital product creation should keep converting team collaboration into paid organizational adoption, unless product teams move the core design workflow into bundled suites or AI-native build tools.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $504.9 million in FY2023 to $749.0 million in FY2024 and $1.056 billion in FY2025. If this holds, Figma can keep expanding from a large base; if it breaks, revenue growth would become a product-cycle artifact rather than a durable platform effect.

    Watch: Adobe successfully re-bundles collaborative product design into Creative Cloud or another enterprise suite and displaces Figma as the default team workspace.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $504.9 million in FY2023 to $749.0 million in FY2024 and $1.056 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Figma’s platform must retain enough pricing power and infrastructure efficiency to keep collaboration and AI-enhanced product features from becoming gross-margin dilutive.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit was $870.3 million in FY2025 on $1.056 billion of revenue, indicating the business still has software-like unit economics. High gross margin is what lets a design-platform business fund product investment and eventually produce attractive earnings; if AI or hosting costs consume pricing, the model is less valuable.

    Watch: AI-assisted design features require heavy inference spending that Figma cannot separately monetize through higher-tier pricing or usage-based charges.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit was $870.3 million in FY2025 on $1.056 billion of revenue, indicating the business still has software-like.

    Open source ↗
  • Figma’s bottom-up adoption and team-collaboration model must begin lowering the incremental cost of growth; otherwise the business is buying expansion with too much sales, marketing, R&D, or stock-based compensation expense.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    The company has scaled to more than $1.0 billion of GAAP annual revenue by FY2025, giving it a base from which operating leverage could emerge. The owner needs revenue growth to turn into per-share value, not just larger losses; lack of operating leverage would cap the stock even if the product remains popular.

    Watch: Enterprise expansion requires increasingly expensive direct sales and customer-success coverage rather than self-serve or product-led adoption.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company has scaled to more than $1.0 billion of GAAP annual revenue by FY2025, giving it a base from.

    Open source ↗
  • Figma’s subscription and enterprise-contract model should convert a meaningful portion of growth into operating cash even before GAAP profitability, provided billings quality and working-capital timing are not masking weak economics.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $61.7 million in FY2024 to positive $250.7 million in FY2025. Positive operating cash flow gives Figma time to invest through GAAP losses; if cash generation proves temporary, outside financing or dilution risk rises.

    Watch: Cash flow is driven mainly by one-time working-capital movements, deferred revenue timing, or unusual items rather than durable customer prepayments.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $61.7 million in FY2024 to positive $250.7 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Figma’s balance sheet must remain strong enough to fund product development and competitive response without forcing unfavorable financing while GAAP losses persist.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Cash and cash equivalents were $403.5 million at FY2025 year-end. A cash cushion lets Figma invest through an AI and platform transition; a weakening balance sheet would turn operating losses into dilution or strategic constraint.

    Watch: Sustained GAAP operating losses require cash use that outpaces operating cash generation.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash and cash equivalents were $403.5 million at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Figma’s shared-workspace position in digital product creation should keep converting team collaboration into paid organizational adoption, unless product teams move the core design workflow into bundled suites or AI-native build tools. If this holds, Figma can keep expanding from a large base; if it breaks, revenue growth would become a product-cycle artifact rather than a durable platform effect.

Figma’s platform must retain enough pricing power and infrastructure efficiency to keep collaboration and AI-enhanced product features from becoming gross-margin dilutive. High gross margin is what lets a design-platform business fund product investment and eventually produce attractive earnings; if AI or hosting costs consume pricing, the model is less valuable.

Figma’s bottom-up adoption and team-collaboration model must begin lowering the incremental cost of growth; otherwise the business is buying expansion with too much sales, marketing, R&D, or stock-based compensation expense. The owner needs revenue growth to turn into per-share value, not just larger losses; lack of operating leverage would cap the stock even if the product remains popular.

Figma’s subscription and enterprise-contract model should convert a meaningful portion of growth into operating cash even before GAAP profitability, provided billings quality and working-capital timing are not masking weak economics. Positive operating cash flow gives Figma time to invest through GAAP losses; if cash generation proves temporary, outside financing or dilution risk rises.

Figma’s balance sheet must remain strong enough to fund product development and competitive response without forcing unfavorable financing while GAAP losses persist. A cash cushion lets Figma invest through an AI and platform transition; a weakening balance sheet would turn operating losses into dilution or strategic constraint.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its collaborative design workspace remains central to how teams build digital products and that demand begins to show real operating leverage.

Evidence assessed Oct 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Figma

Where the evidence on Figma disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 3 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Figma’s shared-workspace position in digital product creation should keep converting team collaboration into paid organizational adoption, unless product teams move the core design workflow into bundled suites or AI-native build tools.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Figma’s platform must retain enough pricing power and infrastructure efficiency to keep collaboration and AI-enhanced product features from becoming gross-margin dilutive.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Figma’s subscription and enterprise-contract model should convert a meaningful portion of growth into operating cash even before GAAP profitability, provided billings quality and working-capital timing are not masking weak economics.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Figma’s balance sheet must remain strong enough to fund product development and competitive response without forcing unfavorable financing while GAAP losses persist.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Figma’s bottom-up adoption and team-collaboration model must begin lowering the incremental cost of growth; otherwise the business is buying expansion with too much sales, marketing, R&D, or stock-based compensation expense.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Figma’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Figma, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Figma.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Figma filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Figma filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-14: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Figma filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-15: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Adobe successfully re-bundles collaborative product design into Creative Cloud or another enterprise suite and displaces Figma as the default team workspace.
  • AI-assisted design features require heavy inference spending that Figma cannot separately monetize through higher-tier pricing or usage-based charges.
  • Enterprise expansion requires increasingly expensive direct sales and customer-success coverage rather than self-serve or product-led adoption.
  • Cash flow is driven mainly by one-time working-capital movements, deferred revenue timing, or unusual items rather than durable customer prepayments.
  • Sustained GAAP operating losses require cash use that outpaces operating cash generation.

FIG news

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Financial statements

FIG income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

FIG: quick answers

When does Figma (FIG) report earnings next?
Figma's next results are projected for February 17, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is FIG's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 35.1M FIG shares were sold short, 7.66% of its shares outstanding, down 5.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FIG short interest history
Which well-known investors own FIG?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FIG shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.4%. Fund portfolios

FIG in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported FIG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management0.36%$55.0M−10.3%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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