First Financial Bankshares

FFINNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$30.34
−$0.25 (−0.82%)Today 1M −1.40%
After hours$30.340.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$30.59
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$30.21–$30.61
Regular-session low and high so far today.
620.7K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 22 projected
Projected for 2027-01-22 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$28.12–$36.52
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own FFIN if its local deposit franchise and conservative credit culture keep producing premium profitability through rate and credit cycles.

FFIN price history

Latest price$30.34Today−$0.25 (-0.82%)
FFIN -2.19%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • FFIN’s local Texas customer relationships continue to convert household and business banking needs into net interest and fee revenue rather than losing wallet share to larger banks, credit unions or digital alternatives.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    FY2025 annual revenue, defined in the data as net interest income plus noninterest income, was $631.6 million versus $550.7 million in FY2024 and $491.8 million in FY2023. If relationship demand holds, balance-sheet and fee growth can compound; if customers shift providers, revenue growth becomes cyclical and less valuable.

    Watch: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, credit unions or Texas-focused community banks win commercial operating accounts in FFIN’s markets with higher deposit rates or broader treasury products.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 annual revenue, defined in the data as net interest income plus noninterest income, was $631.6 million versus $550.7 million.

    Open source ↗
  • The relationship franchise must keep funding available without forcing FFIN into margin-damaging wholesale borrowing or aggressive deposit repricing.HoldingMateriality: High

    FY2025 annual liabilities were $13.53 billion versus $12.37 billion in FY2024, showing the balance sheet was funded as assets expanded. A bank can grow assets and revenue but destroy owner value if funding costs rise faster than loan yields.

    Watch: Uninsured commercial depositors shift balances to Treasury bills, money-market funds, Charles Schwab sweep products or online high-yield banks.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 annual liabilities were $13.53 billion versus $12.37 billion in FY2024, showing the balance sheet was funded as assets expanded.

    Open source ↗
  • FFIN’s underwriting discipline must keep Texas loan growth from turning into provisions and charge-offs when commercial real estate, SMB borrowers or local industries weaken.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 GAAP annual net income was $253.6 million versus $223.5 million in FY2024 and $199.0 million in FY2023. Credit quality is the difference between profitable relationship banking and leverage-driven value destruction.

    Watch: Texas commercial real-estate weakness causes criticized loans, nonperforming assets or charge-offs to rise before reported earnings deteriorate.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP annual net income was $253.6 million versus $223.5 million in FY2024 and $199.0 million in FY2023.

    Open source ↗
  • Management must turn retained earnings into stronger capital and per-share value rather than needing dilutive capital raises or value-destructive acquisitions.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 annual equity was $1.92 billion versus $1.61 billion in FY2024 and $1.50 billion in FY2023. For a bank, growth only compounds for owners if it is self-funded and does not require issuing cheap equity after losses or acquisitions.

    Watch: A material credit-loss cycle or securities mark-to-market pressure erodes regulatory capital before earnings recover.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 annual equity was $1.92 billion versus $1.61 billion in FY2024 and $1.50 billion in FY2023.

    Open source ↗
  • FFIN’s liquidity position must remain strong enough to handle deposit volatility without forced asset sales or punitive funding.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 annual cash was $1.08 billion versus $763.4 million in FY2024 and $536.6 million in FY2023. Liquidity resilience protects the franchise in a bank stress event and preserves optionality for lending or acquisitions when competitors retreat.

    Watch: A rapid migration of relationship deposits to money-market funds or online banks consumes cash faster than the bank can replace funding.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 annual cash was $1.08 billion versus $763.4 million in FY2024 and $536.6 million in FY2023.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

FFIN’s local Texas customer relationships continue to convert household and business banking needs into net interest and fee revenue rather than losing wallet share to larger banks, credit unions or digital alternatives. If relationship demand holds, balance-sheet and fee growth can compound; if customers shift providers, revenue growth becomes cyclical and less valuable.

The relationship franchise must keep funding available without forcing FFIN into margin-damaging wholesale borrowing or aggressive deposit repricing. A bank can grow assets and revenue but destroy owner value if funding costs rise faster than loan yields.

FFIN’s underwriting discipline must keep Texas loan growth from turning into provisions and charge-offs when commercial real estate, SMB borrowers or local industries weaken. Credit quality is the difference between profitable relationship banking and leverage-driven value destruction.

Management must turn retained earnings into stronger capital and per-share value rather than needing dilutive capital raises or value-destructive acquisitions. For a bank, growth only compounds for owners if it is self-funded and does not require issuing cheap equity after losses or acquisitions.

FFIN’s liquidity position must remain strong enough to handle deposit volatility without forced asset sales or punitive funding. Liquidity resilience protects the franchise in a bank stress event and preserves optionality for lending or acquisitions when competitors retreat.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its local deposit franchise and conservative credit culture keep producing premium profitability through rate and credit cycles.

Evidence assessed Oct 17, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for First Financial Bankshares

Where the evidence on First Financial Bankshares stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 17, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • FFIN’s local Texas customer relationships continue to convert household and business banking needs into net interest and fee revenue rather than losing wallet share to larger banks, credit unions or digital alternatives.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The relationship franchise must keep funding available without forcing FFIN into margin-damaging wholesale borrowing or aggressive deposit repricing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • FFIN’s underwriting discipline must keep Texas loan growth from turning into provisions and charge-offs when commercial real estate, SMB borrowers or local industries weaken.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management must turn retained earnings into stronger capital and per-share value rather than needing dilutive capital raises or value-destructive acquisitions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • FFIN’s liquidity position must remain strong enough to handle deposit volatility without forced asset sales or punitive funding.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, credit unions or Texas-focused community banks win commercial operating accounts in FFIN’s markets with higher deposit rates or broader treasury products.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Uninsured commercial depositors shift balances to Treasury bills, money-market funds, Charles Schwab sweep products or online high-yield banks.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Texas commercial real-estate weakness causes criticized loans, nonperforming assets or charge-offs to rise before reported earnings deteriorate.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · First Financial Bankshares

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed First Financial Bankshares’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    First Financial Bankshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-16: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Other material event.

    First Financial Bankshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-31: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    First Financial Bankshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-17: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, credit unions or Texas-focused community banks win commercial operating accounts in FFIN’s markets with higher deposit rates or broader treasury products.
  • Uninsured commercial depositors shift balances to Treasury bills, money-market funds, Charles Schwab sweep products or online high-yield banks.
  • Texas commercial real-estate weakness causes criticized loans, nonperforming assets or charge-offs to rise before reported earnings deteriorate.
  • A material credit-loss cycle or securities mark-to-market pressure erodes regulatory capital before earnings recover.
  • A rapid migration of relationship deposits to money-market funds or online banks consumes cash faster than the bank can replace funding.

FFIN news

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Financial statements

FFIN income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

FFIN: quick answers

When does First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) report earnings next?
First Financial Bankshares's next results are projected for January 22, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 16, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is FFIN's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 8.7M FFIN shares were sold short, 6.10% of its shares outstanding, down 5.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FFIN short interest history
Have members of Congress traded FFIN?
10 trades in FFIN have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed FFIN trade
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