FedEx
FDXNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $319.48 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $318.15–$322.82 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 856.6K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 27 projected Projected for 2027-01-27 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $209.34–$345.37 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own FDX if that scale keeps prices and margins above the capital intensity required for fleet/hub modernization.
FDX price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
FedEx's network density and yield management preserve pricing power so operating income (and implicit operating margin) stays roughly stable as revenue grows, defending profitability against cost pressure.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income increased from 5,217,000,000 (FY2025) to 5,463,000,000 (FY2026) while revenue rose — evidence margins held up in FY26. If true, revenue growth translates into operating income and cash; if false, rising costs or price erosion will compress margins and returns despite volume growth.
Watch: Large shippers insourcing logistics (e.g., Amazon expanding delivery) reducing FedEx volumes and yields.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income increased from 5,217,000,000 (FY2025) to 5,463,000,000 (FY2026) while revenue rose — evidence margins held up in FY26.
Open source ↗FedEx's operating cash flow conversion is strong enough to fund required fleet/hub investment and provide strategic optionality (automation, buybacks, M&A) without forced equity raises.HoldingMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow rose from 7,036,000,000 (FY2025) to 8,925,000,000 (FY2026), increasing available internal funds. High OCF funds capex and allows capital allocation choices that compound shareholder value; weak conversion would force tradeoffs or higher leverage.
Watch: A sustained spike in capex for electrification/hub automation that outpaces OCF and forces external financing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow rose from 7,036,000,000 (FY2025) to 8,925,000,000 (FY2026), increasing available internal funds.
Open source ↗FedEx can sustain mid-to-high single-digit organic revenue growth because e-commerce and global parcel demand continue to expand and convert to FedEx volumes.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
revenue increased year-over-year from 87,926,000,000 (FY2025) to 94,720,000,000 (FY2026) (~7.7% growth). Sustained volume growth is the input to margin leverage and stronger cash flow; without it, the asset base cannot earn its required returns.
Watch: Macroeconomic recession leading to lower parcel volumes and corporate shipping demand.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue increased year-over-year from 87,926,000,000 (FY2025) to 94,720,000,000 (FY2026) (~7.7% growth).
Open source ↗The enlarged cash balance provides FedEx the optionality to invest in automation and fleet modernization that should lower per‑package unit costs and support medium‑term margin improvement.HoldingMateriality: Medium
cash increased from 5,502,000,000 (FY2025) to 13,311,000,000 (FY2026), a material step-up in liquidity. If FedEx invests successfully, operating efficiency rises and returns on capital improve; if cash is ephemeral or diverted, the company loses the chance to lower structural costs.
Watch: Cash increase is due to one‑time financing, asset sales, or timing of receivables rather than sustainable operational improvement.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
cash increased from 5,502,000,000 (FY2025) to 13,311,000,000 (FY2026), a material step-up in liquidity.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
FedEx's network density and yield management preserve pricing power so operating income (and implicit operating margin) stays roughly stable as revenue grows, defending profitability against cost pressure. If true, revenue growth translates into operating income and cash; if false, rising costs or price erosion will compress margins and returns despite volume growth.
FedEx's operating cash flow conversion is strong enough to fund required fleet/hub investment and provide strategic optionality (automation, buybacks, M&A) without forced equity raises. High OCF funds capex and allows capital allocation choices that compound shareholder value; weak conversion would force tradeoffs or higher leverage.
FedEx can sustain mid-to-high single-digit organic revenue growth because e-commerce and global parcel demand continue to expand and convert to FedEx volumes. Sustained volume growth is the input to margin leverage and stronger cash flow; without it, the asset base cannot earn its required returns.
The enlarged cash balance provides FedEx the optionality to invest in automation and fleet modernization that should lower per‑package unit costs and support medium‑term margin improvement. If FedEx invests successfully, operating efficiency rises and returns on capital improve; if cash is ephemeral or diverted, the company loses the chance to lower structural costs.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
that scale keeps prices and margins above the capital intensity required for fleet/hub modernization.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Fedex
Where the evidence on Fedex stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
FedEx's network density and yield management preserve pricing power so operating income (and implicit operating margin) stays roughly stable as revenue grows, defending profitability against cost pressure.
FedEx's operating cash flow conversion is strong enough to fund required fleet/hub investment and provide strategic optionality (automation, buybacks, M&A) without forced equity raises.
FedEx can sustain mid-to-high single-digit organic revenue growth because e-commerce and global parcel demand continue to expand and convert to FedEx volumes.
The enlarged cash balance provides FedEx the optionality to invest in automation and fleet modernization that should lower per‑package unit costs and support medium‑term margin improvement.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large shippers insourcing logistics (e.g., Amazon expanding delivery) reducing FedEx volumes and yields.
A sustained spike in capex for electrification/hub automation that outpaces OCF and forces external financing.
Macroeconomic recession leading to lower parcel volumes and corporate shipping demand.
Company research
Research on Fedex
- Reporting · FedEx Raises Ground Fuel Surcharge to 28% as Diesel Costs Rise
FedEx's September 14-20 fuel surcharges reflect earlier prices. We explain the rates and why higher charges do not guarantee better margins.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Fedex’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Fedex, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Fedex.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Fedex at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedOther material event.
Fedex filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-29: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Fedex filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-14: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Fedex filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-24: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large shippers insourcing logistics (e.g., Amazon expanding delivery) reducing FedEx volumes and yields.
- A sustained spike in capex for electrification/hub automation that outpaces OCF and forces external financing.
- Macroeconomic recession leading to lower parcel volumes and corporate shipping demand.
- Cash increase is due to one‑time financing, asset sales, or timing of receivables rather than sustainable operational improvement.
FDX news
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Financial statements
FDX income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
FDX: quick answers
- When does Fedex (FDX) report earnings next?
- Fedex's next results are projected for January 27, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is FDX's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.7M FDX shares were sold short, 1.99% of its shares outstanding, down 8.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FDX short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded FDX?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in FDX by 3 filers: 0 purchases and 3 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed FDX trade
- Which well-known investors own FDX?
- 3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FDX shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Gates Foundation Trust (Bill Gates), 2.2%; Viking Global Investors (Andreas Halvorsen), 1.9%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
FDX in well-known investors’ portfolios
3 of 37 funds reported FDX shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill GatesGates Foundation Trust | 2.2% | $747M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors | 1.9% | $674M | +11.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.09% | $20.8M | +4,636% | Q2 2026 |