First Citizens BancShares
FCNCBOTC Markets OTCPKUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $1,775.00 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $1,785.00–$1,790.00 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 23 Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 3:16 PM ET.
- Jan 22 projected Projected for 2027-01-22 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $1,535.00–$2,070.00 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own FCNCB if First Citizens creates value by combining acquisitive scale with conservative underwriting and steady operating cash generation, letting it grow assets and earnings while retaining regulatory capital headroom that supports dividends, repurchases and future deals.
FCNCB price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
The company’s recent large increase in assets is primarily M&A-driven and future corporate growth and EPS upside require either more accretive M&A or materially stronger organic lending/fee growth.StrengtheningMateriality: High
assets rose from $58,309,000,000 (2021) to $229,698,000,000 (2025) across filings (fundamentals: assets). If growth must come from further deals, valuation depends on management finding accretive targets and regulators permitting them; without deals organic growth will likely be modest and the stock may underperform.
Watch: Regulatory limits or stricter capital rules (Basel III Endgame) that raise required capital and reduce the ability to do large deals before capital raising.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
assets rose from $58,309,000,000 (2021) to $229,698,000,000 (2025) across filings (fundamentals: assets).
Open source ↗The bank’s credit underwriting framework and ALLL methodology will limit net charge-offs and prevent a meaningful deterioration of profitability unless macro stress (notably CRE price declines) materially exceeds current forecasts.HoldingMateriality: High
ALLL and provisioning disclosures show an ALLL balance around $1.57 billion and a reported net charge-off ratio (e.g., 0.47% in the business text table) consistent with controlled losses (Item 1 Business). If credit discipline holds, net income and operating cash flow should remain resilient; if CRE and other credits deteriorate beyond modelled stress, loan losses will accelerate and earnings will drop quickly.
Watch: A sharp, realized decline in CRE collateral values that forces mark‑downs and higher charge‑offs beyond management’s ALLL assumptions.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
ALLL and provisioning disclosures show an ALLL balance around $1.57 billion and a reported net charge-off ratio (e.g., 0.47% in.
Open source ↗Reported equity growth and maintained regulatory capital discipline provide headroom to continue dividends and share repurchases and to absorb loan losses, so capital returns are sustainable absent major regulatory changes.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Stockholders' equity grew to $22,238,000,000 in 2025 from $4,738,000,000 in 2021 (fundamentals: equity). Sustained capital returns and buybacks are a direct driver of EPS per share progression and valuation multiple justification; if capital is constrained, shareholder returns and the rerating potential evaporate.
Watch: Finalized Basel III Endgame rules increasing risk‑weighted capital requirements materially, or a Category III designation if consolidated assets and exposures cross thresholds, both reducing distributable capital.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Stockholders' equity grew to $22,238,000,000 in 2025 from $4,738,000,000 in 2021 (fundamentals: equity).
Open source ↗Stable operating cash flow generation near ~$2.7–3.0 billion per year provides operational liquidity to fund normal operations, credit provisions, and limited organic growth without reliance on stress wholesale funding.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow was $2,923,000,000 in 2025 and roughly $2.66–2.99 billion in 2023–2024 (fundamentals: operating_cash_flow), showing consistency across years. Consistent operating cash reduces funding risk, making the franchise more resilient in stress and supporting the thesis that capital returns and M&A are feasible.
Watch: Rapid deposit outflows caused by industry stress or reputational events that force use of wholesale funding and deplete operating cash balances.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow was $2,923,000,000 in 2025 and roughly $2.66–2.99 billion in 2023–2024 (fundamentals: operating_cash_flow), showing consistency across years.
Open source ↗The 2023 revenue and EPS spike reflected one‑time acquisition-related items; absent repeat one‑off gains, true recurring earnings are closer to 2024–2025 levels and future per‑share gains depend on integration and cross‑sell effectiveness.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
eps_diluted was $784.51 in 2023 versus $189.41 in 2024 and $165.24 in 2025 (fundamentals: eps_diluted), and revenue fell from $18.787B (2023) to ~$9.55B (2024–25) indicating a one‑time effect. Investors who price the stock on 2023 numbers overestimate recurring earnings; durable upside requires converting scale into recurring NII/fees, not one‑time accounting gains.
Watch: Failure to realize projected synergies and cross‑sell after the acquisition, leading to EPS below 2024–25 levels.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted was $784.51 in 2023 versus $189.41 in 2024 and $165.24 in 2025 (fundamentals: eps_diluted), and revenue fell from $18.787B.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
The company’s recent large increase in assets is primarily M&A-driven and future corporate growth and EPS upside require either more accretive M&A or materially stronger organic lending/fee growth. If growth must come from further deals, valuation depends on management finding accretive targets and regulators permitting them; without deals organic growth will likely be modest and the stock may underperform.
The bank’s credit underwriting framework and ALLL methodology will limit net charge-offs and prevent a meaningful deterioration of profitability unless macro stress (notably CRE price declines) materially exceeds current forecasts. If credit discipline holds, net income and operating cash flow should remain resilient; if CRE and other credits deteriorate beyond modelled stress, loan losses will accelerate and earnings will drop quickly.
Reported equity growth and maintained regulatory capital discipline provide headroom to continue dividends and share repurchases and to absorb loan losses, so capital returns are sustainable absent major regulatory changes. Sustained capital returns and buybacks are a direct driver of EPS per share progression and valuation multiple justification; if capital is constrained, shareholder returns and the rerating potential evaporate.
Stable operating cash flow generation near ~$2.7–3.0 billion per year provides operational liquidity to fund normal operations, credit provisions, and limited organic growth without reliance on stress wholesale funding. Consistent operating cash reduces funding risk, making the franchise more resilient in stress and supporting the thesis that capital returns and M&A are feasible.
The 2023 revenue and EPS spike reflected one‑time acquisition-related items; absent repeat one‑off gains, true recurring earnings are closer to 2024–2025 levels and future per‑share gains depend on integration and cross‑sell effectiveness. Investors who price the stock on 2023 numbers overestimate recurring earnings; durable upside requires converting scale into recurring NII/fees, not one‑time accounting gains.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
First Citizens creates value by combining acquisitive scale with conservative underwriting and steady operating cash generation, letting it grow assets and earnings while retaining regulatory capital headroom that supports dividends, repurchases and future deals.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for First Citizens Bancshares
Where the evidence on First Citizens Bancshares stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
The company’s recent large increase in assets is primarily M&A-driven and future corporate growth and EPS upside require either more accretive M&A or materially stronger organic lending/fee growth.
The bank’s credit underwriting framework and ALLL methodology will limit net charge-offs and prevent a meaningful deterioration of profitability unless macro stress (notably CRE price declines) materially exceeds current forecasts.
Reported equity growth and maintained regulatory capital discipline provide headroom to continue dividends and share repurchases and to absorb loan losses, so capital returns are sustainable absent major regulatory changes.
Stable operating cash flow generation near ~$2.7–3.0 billion per year provides operational liquidity to fund normal operations, credit provisions, and limited organic growth without reliance on stress wholesale funding.
The 2023 revenue and EPS spike reflected one‑time acquisition-related items; absent repeat one‑off gains, true recurring earnings are closer to 2024–2025 levels and future per‑share gains depend on integration and cross‑sell effectiveness.
Bear case: what would count against it
Regulatory limits or stricter capital rules (Basel III Endgame) that raise required capital and reduce the ability to do large deals before capital raising.
A sharp, realized decline in CRE collateral values that forces mark‑downs and higher charge‑offs beyond management’s ALLL assumptions.
Finalized Basel III Endgame rules increasing risk‑weighted capital requirements materially, or a Category III designation if consolidated assets and exposures cross thresholds, both reducing distributable capital.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · First Citizens Bancshares
OptimistFi is watching First Citizens Bancshares. No break-condition checks are on record yet — they accumulate as new filings are checked.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
First Citizens Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-23: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedMaterial modification to security holder rights.
First Citizens Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-14: Material modification to security holder rights. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
First Citizens Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-08: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Regulatory limits or stricter capital rules (Basel III Endgame) that raise required capital and reduce the ability to do large deals before capital raising.
- A sharp, realized decline in CRE collateral values that forces mark‑downs and higher charge‑offs beyond management’s ALLL assumptions.
- Finalized Basel III Endgame rules increasing risk‑weighted capital requirements materially, or a Category III designation if consolidated assets and exposures cross thresholds, both reducing distributable capital.
- Rapid deposit outflows caused by industry stress or reputational events that force use of wholesale funding and deplete operating cash balances.
- Failure to realize projected synergies and cross‑sell after the acquisition, leading to EPS below 2024–25 levels.
FCNCB news
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Financial statements
FCNCB income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
FCNCB: quick answers
- When does First Citizens Bancshares (FCNCB) report earnings next?
- First Citizens Bancshares's next results are projected for January 22, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 23, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is FCNCB's short interest?
- As of September 15, 2026, 1 FCNCB shares were sold short, up 100.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.0 day to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FCNCB short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded FCNCB?
- 1 trade in FCNCB has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed FCNCB trade