FirstCash Holdings

FCFSNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the FCFS thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$184.00
+$0.57 (+0.31%)Today 1M −14.16%
After hours$184.000.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$183.43
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$181.80–$184.79
Regular-session low and high so far today.
283.3K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$146.95–$238.93
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own FCFS if FirstCash is a scale pawn-store compounder whose value depends on durable demand for collateralized small-dollar liquidity and disciplined reinvestment, not just reported growth.

FCFS price history

Latest price$184.00Today+$0.57 (+0.31%)
FCFS -15.41%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Urgent small-dollar liquidity demand remains structurally underserved by banks, so First cash’s pawn stores keep converting customer need into transactions rather than losing relevance to digital credit alternatives.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.699 billion in FY2021 to $3.661 billion in FY2025. If this holds, First cash can keep growing without needing to buy demand through weaker underwriting or lower fees; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes much less durable.

    Watch: Neobank cash-advance and earned-wage-access products from providers such as Chime, Dave, Cash App, or employer payroll platforms gain broad adoption among FirstCash’s core customers at lower effective cost.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.699 billion in FY2021 to $3.661 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The collateralized pawn model and resale capability allow First cash to protect unit economics because merchandise can be appraised, loaned against conservatively, and resold when loans are not redeemed.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit increased from $919.2 million in FY2021 to $1.841 billion in FY2025. This is the difference between profitable growth and credit-like growth that can disappear when collateral values or resale spreads weaken.

    Watch: A sharp decline in gold, jewelry, electronics, or other pledged-collateral resale values forces lower realized margins on forfeited inventory.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit increased from $919.2 million in FY2021 to $1.841 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • First cash’s model continues to self-fund expansion because pawn lending and resale produce enough operating cash flow to cover working capital needs without relying primarily on external capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP operating cash flow was $585.9 million in FY2025 versus GAAP net income of $330.4 million. Strong cash conversion lets owners benefit from growth; weak cash conversion would make expansion more balance-sheet intensive and riskier.

    Watch: Pawn loan growth becomes a working-capital sink because customers redeem less often and collateral liquidation slows.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP operating cash flow was $585.9 million in FY2025 versus GAAP net income of $330.4 million.

    Open source ↗
  • Management’s store growth and acquisition choices remain accretive to owners, so expansion shows up in GAAP diluted EPS rather than only in larger assets and liabilities.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS increased to $7.42 in FY2025 from $5.73 in FY2024. A roll-up or store-expansion story only creates per-share value if returns exceed the cost of capital and dilution or leverage do not absorb the gains.

    Watch: Management overpays for pawn-store or adjacent consumer-finance acquisitions, producing goodwill risk without higher store-level returns.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS increased to $7.42 in FY2025 from $5.73 in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Pawn fee economics remain legally and socially permissible across First cash’s core countries, allowing the company to earn attractive profits from collateralized small-dollar credit.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP net income increased to $330.4 million in FY2025 from $258.8 million in FY2024. Regulatory permission is a core moat constraint: if fee caps or consumer-finance rules change materially, the same customer demand could become far less profitable.

    Watch: U.S. state legislatures impose tighter pawn service-charge caps, redemption rules, or licensing limits in important FirstCash markets.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP net income increased to $330.4 million in FY2025 from $258.8 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Urgent small-dollar liquidity demand remains structurally underserved by banks, so First cash’s pawn stores keep converting customer need into transactions rather than losing relevance to digital credit alternatives. If this holds, First cash can keep growing without needing to buy demand through weaker underwriting or lower fees; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes much less durable.

The collateralized pawn model and resale capability allow First cash to protect unit economics because merchandise can be appraised, loaned against conservatively, and resold when loans are not redeemed. This is the difference between profitable growth and credit-like growth that can disappear when collateral values or resale spreads weaken.

First cash’s model continues to self-fund expansion because pawn lending and resale produce enough operating cash flow to cover working capital needs without relying primarily on external capital. Strong cash conversion lets owners benefit from growth; weak cash conversion would make expansion more balance-sheet intensive and riskier.

Management’s store growth and acquisition choices remain accretive to owners, so expansion shows up in GAAP diluted EPS rather than only in larger assets and liabilities. A roll-up or store-expansion story only creates per-share value if returns exceed the cost of capital and dilution or leverage do not absorb the gains.

Pawn fee economics remain legally and socially permissible across First cash’s core countries, allowing the company to earn attractive profits from collateralized small-dollar credit. Regulatory permission is a core moat constraint: if fee caps or consumer-finance rules change materially, the same customer demand could become far less profitable.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

FirstCash is a scale pawn-store compounder whose value depends on durable demand for collateralized small-dollar liquidity and disciplined reinvestment, not just reported growth.

Evidence assessed Oct 17, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for FirstCash Holdings

Where the evidence on FirstCash Holdings stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 17, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Urgent small-dollar liquidity demand remains structurally underserved by banks, so First cash’s pawn stores keep converting customer need into transactions rather than losing relevance to digital credit alternatives.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The collateralized pawn model and resale capability allow First cash to protect unit economics because merchandise can be appraised, loaned against conservatively, and resold when loans are not redeemed.

    sec.gov ↗

  • First cash’s model continues to self-fund expansion because pawn lending and resale produce enough operating cash flow to cover working capital needs without relying primarily on external capital.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management’s store growth and acquisition choices remain accretive to owners, so expansion shows up in GAAP diluted EPS rather than only in larger assets and liabilities.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Pawn fee economics remain legally and socially permissible across First cash’s core countries, allowing the company to earn attractive profits from collateralized small-dollar credit.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Neobank cash-advance and earned-wage-access products from providers such as Chime, Dave, Cash App, or employer payroll platforms gain broad adoption among FirstCash’s core customers at lower effective cost.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A sharp decline in gold, jewelry, electronics, or other pledged-collateral resale values forces lower realized margins on forfeited inventory.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Pawn loan growth becomes a working-capital sink because customers redeem less often and collateral liquidation slows.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · FirstCash Holdings

Loading the break-condition record for FirstCash Holdings.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    FirstCash Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-31: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    FirstCash Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    FirstCash Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-23: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Neobank cash-advance and earned-wage-access products from providers such as Chime, Dave, Cash App, or employer payroll platforms gain broad adoption among FirstCash’s core customers at lower effective cost.
  • A sharp decline in gold, jewelry, electronics, or other pledged-collateral resale values forces lower realized margins on forfeited inventory.
  • Pawn loan growth becomes a working-capital sink because customers redeem less often and collateral liquidation slows.
  • Management overpays for pawn-store or adjacent consumer-finance acquisitions, producing goodwill risk without higher store-level returns.
  • U.S. state legislatures impose tighter pawn service-charge caps, redemption rules, or licensing limits in important FirstCash markets.

FCFS news

Loading headlines…

Financial statements

FCFS income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

FCFS: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded FCFS?
12 trades in FCFS have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed FCFS trade
Which well-known investors own FCFS?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FCFS shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

FCFS in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported FCFS shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$1.4M−50.9%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.