New Oriental Education & Technology Group

EDUNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$52.76
−$0.40 (−0.75%)Today 1M −10.01%
After hours$52.760.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$53.16
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$52.49–$53.60
Regular-session low and high so far today.
234.3K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$44.25–$64.97
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own EDU if New Oriental can convert its large brand, teacher network and offline-online asset base into durable cash-generating growth as Chinas regulatory environment normalizes and demand for test-prep, adult reskilling and online learning expands.

EDU price history

Latest price$52.76Today−$0.40 (-0.75%)
EDU -9.42%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • New Oriental's omnichannel brand and teacher/curriculum assets will keep student acquisition and retention efficient enough that revenue continues to grow organically rather than just spike from one-time re-openings.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Revenue rose from $2,997,760,000 (FY2023) to $4,313,586,000 (FY2024) to $4,900,262,000 (FY2025), showing sustained top-line recovery across years. If true, revenue growth funds margin expansion and cash generation; if false, the company may revert to low growth and require heavy marketing spend to hold share.

    Watch: A new national regulation or policy reversing market access or fee charging for core K-12 offerings (central Ministry of Education action) that reduces addressable demand, or rapid share loss to low-cost AI/edtech platforms.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue rose from $2,997,760,000 (FY2023) to $4,313,586,000 (FY2024) to $4,900,262,000 (FY2025), showing sustained top-line recovery across years.

    Open source ↗
  • The business will continue to convert revenue into strong operating cash flow (positive OCF) because tuition is prepaid and operating leverage in teaching/content scales with enrollments.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Operating cash flow swung from -$1,280,453,000 (FY2022) to positive $971,008,000 (FY2023), $1,122,643,000 (FY2024) and $896,592,000 (FY2025), demonstrating material cash conversion after the regulatory trough. Sustained positive OCF provides self-funding for expansion, product investment, or capital returns and reduces financing risk.

    Watch: A change in customer payment patterns (e.g., lower prepaid tuition, more refunds or deposit obligations) or an expansion model with high upfront working-capital that reverses cash conversion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow swung from -$1,280,453,000 (FY2022) to positive $971,008,000 (FY2023), $1,122,643,000 (FY2024) and $896,592,000 (FY2025), demonstrating material cash conversion.

    Open source ↗
  • Revenue growth will translate into rising operating income (operating leverage) because content/teacher investments are largely fixed and digital distribution increases gross margins over time.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Operating income recovered from an operating loss of $-982,513,000 (FY2022) to $190,046,000 (FY2023), $350,425,000 (FY2024) and $428,250,000 (FY2025) while revenue rose, showing operating leverage in recent years. If operating leverage holds, shareholders get margin expansion and higher free cash flow; if it doesn't, growth may come at the cost of margin compression.

    Watch: Sustained wage inflation for frontline teachers or aggressive discounting by competitors (including AI-driven low-cost platforms) that forces higher teaching costs or price cuts.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating income recovered from an operating loss of $-982,513,000 (FY2022) to $190,046,000 (FY2023), $350,425,000 (FY2024) and $428,250,000 (FY2025) while revenue.

    Open source ↗
  • A strong cash position and moderate liabilities give New Oriental optionality to invest in product expansion, acquisitions or weather cyclical shocks without distress.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash increased from $1,148,637,000 (FY2022) to $1,662,982,000 (FY2023), $1,389,359,000 (FY2024) and $1,612,379,000 (FY2025), and liabilities have not ballooned proportionally. If balance sheet resilience continues, the company can pursue growth initiatives and return capital; if not, financing constraints could force dilutive financing or cutbacks.

    Watch: Large M&A or other one-time cash uses that materially deplete cash without clear returns, or regulatory fines/seizures that drain liquidity.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash increased from $1,148,637,000 (FY2022) to $1,662,982,000 (FY2023), $1,389,359,000 (FY2024) and $1,612,379,000 (FY2025), and liabilities have not ballooned proportionally.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

New Oriental's omnichannel brand and teacher/curriculum assets will keep student acquisition and retention efficient enough that revenue continues to grow organically rather than just spike from one-time re-openings. If true, revenue growth funds margin expansion and cash generation; if false, the company may revert to low growth and require heavy marketing spend to hold share.

The business will continue to convert revenue into strong operating cash flow (positive OCF) because tuition is prepaid and operating leverage in teaching/content scales with enrollments. Sustained positive OCF provides self-funding for expansion, product investment, or capital returns and reduces financing risk.

Revenue growth will translate into rising operating income (operating leverage) because content/teacher investments are largely fixed and digital distribution increases gross margins over time. If operating leverage holds, shareholders get margin expansion and higher free cash flow; if it doesn't, growth may come at the cost of margin compression.

A strong cash position and moderate liabilities give New Oriental optionality to invest in product expansion, acquisitions or weather cyclical shocks without distress. If balance sheet resilience continues, the company can pursue growth initiatives and return capital; if not, financing constraints could force dilutive financing or cutbacks.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

New Oriental can convert its large brand, teacher network and offline-online asset base into durable cash-generating growth as Chinas regulatory environment normalizes and demand for test-prep, adult reskilling and online learning expands.

Evidence assessed Oct 29, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for New Oriental Education & Technology Group

Where the evidence on New Oriental Education & Technology Group stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Oct 29, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 strengthening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • New Oriental's omnichannel brand and teacher/curriculum assets will keep student acquisition and retention efficient enough that revenue continues to grow organically rather than just spike from one-time re-openings.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The business will continue to convert revenue into strong operating cash flow (positive OCF) because tuition is prepaid and operating leverage in teaching/content scales with enrollments.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Revenue growth will translate into rising operating income (operating leverage) because content/teacher investments are largely fixed and digital distribution increases gross margins over time.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A strong cash position and moderate liabilities give New Oriental optionality to invest in product expansion, acquisitions or weather cyclical shocks without distress.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A new national regulation or policy reversing market access or fee charging for core K-12 offerings (central Ministry of Education action) that reduces addressable demand, or rapid share loss to low-cost AI/edtech platforms.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A change in customer payment patterns (e.g., lower prepaid tuition, more refunds or deposit obligations) or an expansion model with high upfront working-capital that reverses cash conversion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Sustained wage inflation for frontline teachers or aggressive discounting by competitors (including AI-driven low-cost platforms) that forces higher teaching costs or price cuts.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · New Oriental Education & Technology Group

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed New Oriental Education & Technology Group’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    New Oriental Education & Technology Group filed an SEC report on 2026-10-28: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    New Oriental Education & Technology Group filed an SEC report on 2026-10-13: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    New Oriental Education & Technology Group filed an SEC report on 2026-10-08: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A new national regulation or policy reversing market access or fee charging for core K-12 offerings (central Ministry of Education action) that reduces addressable demand, or rapid share loss to low-cost AI/edtech platforms.
  • A change in customer payment patterns (e.g., lower prepaid tuition, more refunds or deposit obligations) or an expansion model with high upfront working-capital that reverses cash conversion.
  • Sustained wage inflation for frontline teachers or aggressive discounting by competitors (including AI-driven low-cost platforms) that forces higher teaching costs or price cuts.
  • Large M&A or other one-time cash uses that materially deplete cash without clear returns, or regulatory fines/seizures that drain liquidity.

EDU news

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Financial statements

EDU income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

EDU: quick answers

What is EDU's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 2.5M EDU shares were sold short, down 10.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. EDU short interest history
Have members of Congress traded EDU?
7 trades in EDU have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed EDU trade
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