GrafTech International
EAFNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $10.29 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $10.43–$11.55 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 247.3K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 5 projected Projected for 2027-02-05 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $4.92–$19.72 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own EAF if pricing recovers and the company sustains cost improvement, GrafTech can restore cash generation and de-lever; if competitor-driven pricing stays depressed or its needle-coke advantage is lost, the balance sheet will remain impaired.
EAF price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
GrafTech’s vertical integration into petroleum needle coke provides a durable per-ton cost advantage and supply reliability that, if preserved, will allow the company to achieve positive gross margins as pricing normalizes.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: Company states it is the only large-scale producer substantially vertically integrated into petroleum needle coke and cites execution to reduce cash COGS/MT by 31% since end of 2023 (MD&A). If true, cost advantages let GrafTech defend share and recover profitability without needing higher market prices; if false (loss of advantage), margins will remain under pressure and cash burn will continue.
Watch: Sustained aggressive competitor pricing across principal regions that prevents price recovery despite lower COGS.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: Company states it is the only large-scale producer substantially vertically integrated into petroleum needle coke and cites execution to.
Open source ↗Revenue recovery depends on EAF steel demand and GrafTech’s ability to shift sales mix toward higher‑priced U.S. customers; if global ex-China steel demand and U.S. mix improve as guided, revenue will rise even if baseline pricing is weak.HoldingMateriality: High
Sales volume increased to ~109 thousand MT in 2025 (MD&A) and the company projects 5-10% sales volume growth for 2026 (MD&A). Sustained volume growth and favorable geographic mix will lift average realized price per MT and revenue, enabling margin leverage; failure means continued top-line pressure and persistent losses.
Watch: A sustained suppression of non-China steel demand due to high Chinese exports or weaker global trade that keeps electrode demand flat or declining.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Sales volume increased to ~109 thousand MT in 2025 (MD&A) and the company projects 5-10% sales volume growth for 2026.
Open source ↗If GrafTech sustains its per-ton cash cost reductions and the 2026 volume increase, operating cash flow will return to positive and support maintenance capex and working capital without an equity raise.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating_cash_flow was positive $76,561,000 in 2023 but turned negative $-40,093,000 in 2024 and further negative $-81,616,000 in 2025 (operating_cash_flow). Positive operating cash flow is the linchpin for repairing the balance sheet and preventing dilutive financing or restructuring; continued negative cash flow risks insolvency/recapitalization outcomes.
Watch: Continued low realized prices caused by competitor behavior so volume growth does not translate to higher cash realization.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating_cash_flow was positive $76,561,000 in 2023 but turned negative $-40,093,000 in 2024 and further negative $-81,616,000 in 2025 (operating_cash_flow).
Open source ↗GrafTech’s equity value and operational optionality are constrained by high leverage; preserving liquidity (cash + undrawn facilities) and avoiding covenant/default outcomes is necessary for executing the recovery plan.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A: Company reports liquidity of $340.0 million composed of cash $138.4M plus credit availability and intended $100M draw under the term loan. If liquidity access is preserved, management can wait for pricing and cost improvements to restore profitability; if access evaporates, debt enforcement or restructuring could wipe out equity.
Watch: Inability to draw the Delayed Draw Term Loan or lender refusal to extend/renew facilities before July 2026.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: Company reports liquidity of $340.0 million composed of cash $138.4M plus credit availability and intended $100M draw under the.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
GrafTech’s vertical integration into petroleum needle coke provides a durable per-ton cost advantage and supply reliability that, if preserved, will allow the company to achieve positive gross margins as pricing normalizes. If true, cost advantages let GrafTech defend share and recover profitability without needing higher market prices; if false (loss of advantage), margins will remain under pressure and cash burn will continue.
Revenue recovery depends on EAF steel demand and GrafTech’s ability to shift sales mix toward higher‑priced U.S. customers; if global ex-China steel demand and U.S. mix improve as guided, revenue will rise even if baseline pricing is weak. Sustained volume growth and favorable geographic mix will lift average realized price per MT and revenue, enabling margin leverage; failure means continued top-line pressure and persistent losses.
If GrafTech sustains its per-ton cash cost reductions and the 2026 volume increase, operating cash flow will return to positive and support maintenance capex and working capital without an equity raise. Positive operating cash flow is the linchpin for repairing the balance sheet and preventing dilutive financing or restructuring; continued negative cash flow risks insolvency/recapitalization outcomes.
GrafTech’s equity value and operational optionality are constrained by high leverage; preserving liquidity (cash + undrawn facilities) and avoiding covenant/default outcomes is necessary for executing the recovery plan. If liquidity access is preserved, management can wait for pricing and cost improvements to restore profitability; if access evaporates, debt enforcement or restructuring could wipe out equity.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
pricing recovers and the company sustains cost improvement, GrafTech can restore cash generation and de-lever; if competitor-driven pricing stays depressed or its needle-coke advantage is lost, the balance sheet will remain impaired.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Graftech International
Where the evidence on Graftech International stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 11, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
GrafTech’s vertical integration into petroleum needle coke provides a durable per-ton cost advantage and supply reliability that, if preserved, will allow the company to achieve positive gross margins as pricing normalizes.
Revenue recovery depends on EAF steel demand and GrafTech’s ability to shift sales mix toward higher‑priced U.S. customers; if global ex-China steel demand and U.S. mix improve as guided, revenue will rise even if baseline pricing is weak.
If GrafTech sustains its per-ton cash cost reductions and the 2026 volume increase, operating cash flow will return to positive and support maintenance capex and working capital without an equity raise.
GrafTech’s equity value and operational optionality are constrained by high leverage; preserving liquidity (cash + undrawn facilities) and avoiding covenant/default outcomes is necessary for executing the recovery plan.
Bear case: what would count against it
Sustained aggressive competitor pricing across principal regions that prevents price recovery despite lower COGS.
A sustained suppression of non-China steel demand due to high Chinese exports or weaker global trade that keeps electrode demand flat or declining.
Continued low realized prices caused by competitor behavior so volume growth does not translate to higher cash realization.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Graftech International
No break has crossed Graftech International’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Graftech International’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating-margin compression, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 2,641 times before. Those stocks trailed the market by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Graftech International filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-23: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedCosts associated with exit or disposal activities.
Graftech International filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-31: Costs associated with exit or disposal activities. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Graftech International filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-24: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Sustained aggressive competitor pricing across principal regions that prevents price recovery despite lower COGS.
- A sustained suppression of non-China steel demand due to high Chinese exports or weaker global trade that keeps electrode demand flat or declining.
- Continued low realized prices caused by competitor behavior so volume growth does not translate to higher cash realization.
- Inability to draw the Delayed Draw Term Loan or lender refusal to extend/renew facilities before July 2026.
EAF news
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Financial statements
EAF income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
EAF: quick answers
- When does Graftech International (EAF) report earnings next?
- Graftech International's next results are projected for February 5, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 23, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is EAF's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 1.3M EAF shares were sold short, 4.92% of its shares outstanding, down 7.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. EAF short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded EAF?
- 8 trades in EAF have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed EAF trade