Dollar Tree
DLTRNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $140.83 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $139.88–$143.19 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.0M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Dec 2 projected Projected for 2026-12-02 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $85.88–$148.54 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own DLTR if the now-simpler Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada business can preserve its low-ticket value appeal while using broader price points and better execution to rebuild margins.
DLTR price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Dollar Tree’s low-ticket, convenient discount format continues to attract value-seeking shoppers before and after consumer stress, rather than losing trips to larger low-price retailers.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Item 1 Business, as reflected in the company profile, describes Dollar Tree as a leading operator of retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands. If the traffic engine holds, the company has a durable demand base; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes store-count-driven and lower quality.
Watch: Dollar General improves small-box execution and narrows Dollar Tree’s convenience advantage in overlapping low-income trade areas.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business, as reflected in the company profile, describes Dollar Tree as a leading operator of retail discount stores.
Open source ↗Broader price-point merchandising can improve assortment and vendor economics without damaging Dollar Tree’s core value perception.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit rose to $7.0507 billion for FY2026, period ended 2026-01-31, from $6.2817 billion for FY2025, period ended 2025-02-01. If this holds, Dollar Tree can grow profitably rather than simply selling more low-margin goods; if it fails, higher sales may come with gross-margin compression.
Watch: Customers reject higher price points because they no longer perceive Dollar Tree as a distinctive bargain destination.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit rose to $7.0507 billion for FY2026, period ended 2026-01-31, from $6.2817 billion for FY2025, period ended.
Open source ↗A more focused Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada operating footprint lets management convert sales growth into operating leverage rather than losing the benefit to labor, shrink, freight, and store-execution costs.HoldingMateriality: Medium
The company profile describes the business as operating under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, indicating a narrower current operating focus than the historical combined discount portfolio. Operating leverage is the difference between a good retailer and a good stock; if execution costs absorb growth, earnings power stagnates.
Watch: Store-level labor inflation or staffing shortages force higher payroll without better sales productivity.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The company profile describes the business as operating under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, indicating a narrower.
Open source ↗The balance sheet remains flexible enough to fund store investment and supply-chain execution without forcing value-destructive financing or underinvestment.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents were $717.8 million at FY2026 year-end, period ended 2026-01-31. If liquidity is adequate, management can invest through the reset; if cash is absorbed by liabilities or restructuring, growth and buybacks become less valuable.
Watch: Working-capital needs rise because inventory turns slow or markdown risk increases.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents were $717.8 million at FY2026 year-end, period ended 2026-01-31.
Open source ↗Management avoids another asset-impairment or restructuring cycle, so GAAP earnings become a reliable measure of ongoing retail economics rather than periodic write-downs.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS was $6.22 for FY2026, period ended 2026-01-31, after negative GAAP diluted EPS in the two prior reported annual periods. If earnings quality improves, per-share value can compound; if charges recur, headline profitability overstates durable owner earnings.
Watch: New store cohorts or remodels underperform and trigger further asset impairments.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS was $6.22 for FY2026, period ended 2026-01-31, after negative GAAP diluted EPS in the two prior reported.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Dollar Tree’s low-ticket, convenient discount format continues to attract value-seeking shoppers before and after consumer stress, rather than losing trips to larger low-price retailers. If the traffic engine holds, the company has a durable demand base; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes store-count-driven and lower quality.
Broader price-point merchandising can improve assortment and vendor economics without damaging Dollar Tree’s core value perception. If this holds, Dollar Tree can grow profitably rather than simply selling more low-margin goods; if it fails, higher sales may come with gross-margin compression.
A more focused Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada operating footprint lets management convert sales growth into operating leverage rather than losing the benefit to labor, shrink, freight, and store-execution costs. Operating leverage is the difference between a good retailer and a good stock; if execution costs absorb growth, earnings power stagnates.
The balance sheet remains flexible enough to fund store investment and supply-chain execution without forcing value-destructive financing or underinvestment. If liquidity is adequate, management can invest through the reset; if cash is absorbed by liabilities or restructuring, growth and buybacks become less valuable.
Management avoids another asset-impairment or restructuring cycle, so GAAP earnings become a reliable measure of ongoing retail economics rather than periodic write-downs. If earnings quality improves, per-share value can compound; if charges recur, headline profitability overstates durable owner earnings.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
the now-simpler Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada business can preserve its low-ticket value appeal while using broader price points and better execution to rebuild margins.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Dollar Tree
Where the evidence on Dollar Tree stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Dollar Tree’s low-ticket, convenient discount format continues to attract value-seeking shoppers before and after consumer stress, rather than losing trips to larger low-price retailers.
Broader price-point merchandising can improve assortment and vendor economics without damaging Dollar Tree’s core value perception.
A more focused Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada operating footprint lets management convert sales growth into operating leverage rather than losing the benefit to labor, shrink, freight, and store-execution costs.
The balance sheet remains flexible enough to fund store investment and supply-chain execution without forcing value-destructive financing or underinvestment.
Management avoids another asset-impairment or restructuring cycle, so GAAP earnings become a reliable measure of ongoing retail economics rather than periodic write-downs.
Bear case: what would count against it
Dollar General improves small-box execution and narrows Dollar Tree’s convenience advantage in overlapping low-income trade areas.
Customers reject higher price points because they no longer perceive Dollar Tree as a distinctive bargain destination.
Store-level labor inflation or staffing shortages force higher payroll without better sales productivity.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Dollar Tree’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Dollar Tree, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Dollar Tree.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Dollar Tree filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Dollar Tree filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Dollar Tree filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-02: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Dollar General improves small-box execution and narrows Dollar Tree’s convenience advantage in overlapping low-income trade areas.
- Customers reject higher price points because they no longer perceive Dollar Tree as a distinctive bargain destination.
- Store-level labor inflation or staffing shortages force higher payroll without better sales productivity.
- Working-capital needs rise because inventory turns slow or markdown risk increases.
- New store cohorts or remodels underperform and trigger further asset impairments.
DLTR news
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Financial statements
DLTR income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
DLTR: quick answers
- When does Dollar Tree (DLTR) report earnings next?
- Dollar Tree's next results are projected for December 2, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is DLTR's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 10.0M DLTR shares were sold short, 5.34% of its shares outstanding, up 3.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. DLTR short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded DLTR?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in DLTR by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed DLTR trade
- Which well-known investors own DLTR?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported DLTR shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.2%. Fund portfolios
DLTR in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported DLTR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.16% | $38.2M | +1,225% | Q2 2026 |