Dollar General
DGNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $137.31 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $135.00–$138.04 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Dec 3 projected Projected for 2026-12-03 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $99.50–$158.23 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own DG if the recent margin and cash-flow rebound proves structural rather than temporary.
DG price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Dollar General’s dense small-box value format continues to solve a convenience-and-affordability problem for budget-sensitive shoppers, so store traffic can keep converting into sales even without a premium shopping experience.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue rose from $34.220 billion in FY2022 to $42.724 billion in FY2026. If this holds, the company has a demand base to support recovery; if it breaks, margin initiatives become cost cuts against a weakening customer proposition.
Watch: Walmart, Aldi, or Dollar Tree materially improve rural and small-market price/convenience coverage, reducing the need for a nearby Dollar General trip.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue rose from $34.220 billion in FY2022 to $42.724 billion in FY2026.
Open source ↗The merchandising and procurement model must preserve Dollar General’s price image without requiring permanent margin giveaway; otherwise value traffic will grow but economics will deteriorate.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit increased from $12.017 billion in FY2025 to $13.100 billion in FY2026. Gross margin is the bridge between customer relevance and shareholder value; losing it turns revenue growth into low-quality growth.
Watch: Walmart or Dollar Tree starts an extended price-investment cycle in consumables that Dollar General must match to protect traffic.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit increased from $12.017 billion in FY2025 to $13.100 billion in FY2026.
Open source ↗Store labor, distribution, and inventory execution must turn Dollar General’s scale into operating leverage; the recovery is not durable if more staffing, shrink mitigation, and supply-chain expense absorb the gross-margin gains.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income improved from $1.714 billion in FY2025 to $2.204 billion in FY2026. Operating leverage determines whether Dollar General is merely a large retailer or a cash-compounding retailer.
Watch: Wage inflation or labor scheduling needs rise because stores require more staffing to maintain shelves, reduce shrink, and improve customer service.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income improved from $1.714 billion in FY2025 to $2.204 billion in FY2026.
Open source ↗The operating model must keep generating cash through working-capital discipline so Dollar General can fund store investment and balance-sheet repair without relying on rising leverage.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow rose from $1.985 billion in FY2024 to $2.392 billion in the year ended February 2, 2024, $2.996 billion in FY2025, and $3.635 billion in FY2026. Strong cash generation gives management time to fix operations; weak cash conversion would make the recovery more financially fragile.
Watch: Inventory rebuilds or poor sell-through consume working capital before the earnings recovery is complete.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow rose from $1.985 billion in FY2024 to $2.392 billion in the year ended February 2.
Open source ↗Per-share value depends on the operating reset translating into higher-quality earnings, not just larger sales; if margin recovery stalls, the company’s scale will not restore prior earnings power.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS improved from $5.11 in FY2025 to $6.85 in FY2026. Owners ultimately need the recovery to show up in durable earnings per share, not simply revenue and store-count expansion.
Watch: Persistent labor, shrink, and freight costs prevent operating-margin recovery despite positive sales growth.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS improved from $5.11 in FY2025 to $6.85 in FY2026.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Dollar General’s dense small-box value format continues to solve a convenience-and-affordability problem for budget-sensitive shoppers, so store traffic can keep converting into sales even without a premium shopping experience. If this holds, the company has a demand base to support recovery; if it breaks, margin initiatives become cost cuts against a weakening customer proposition.
The merchandising and procurement model must preserve Dollar General’s price image without requiring permanent margin giveaway; otherwise value traffic will grow but economics will deteriorate. Gross margin is the bridge between customer relevance and shareholder value; losing it turns revenue growth into low-quality growth.
Store labor, distribution, and inventory execution must turn Dollar General’s scale into operating leverage; the recovery is not durable if more staffing, shrink mitigation, and supply-chain expense absorb the gross-margin gains. Operating leverage determines whether Dollar General is merely a large retailer or a cash-compounding retailer.
The operating model must keep generating cash through working-capital discipline so Dollar General can fund store investment and balance-sheet repair without relying on rising leverage. Strong cash generation gives management time to fix operations; weak cash conversion would make the recovery more financially fragile.
Per-share value depends on the operating reset translating into higher-quality earnings, not just larger sales; if margin recovery stalls, the company’s scale will not restore prior earnings power. Owners ultimately need the recovery to show up in durable earnings per share, not simply revenue and store-count expansion.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
the recent margin and cash-flow rebound proves structural rather than temporary.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Dollar General
Where the evidence on Dollar General stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Dollar General’s dense small-box value format continues to solve a convenience-and-affordability problem for budget-sensitive shoppers, so store traffic can keep converting into sales even without a premium shopping experience.
The merchandising and procurement model must preserve Dollar General’s price image without requiring permanent margin giveaway; otherwise value traffic will grow but economics will deteriorate.
Store labor, distribution, and inventory execution must turn Dollar General’s scale into operating leverage; the recovery is not durable if more staffing, shrink mitigation, and supply-chain expense absorb the gross-margin gains.
The operating model must keep generating cash through working-capital discipline so Dollar General can fund store investment and balance-sheet repair without relying on rising leverage.
Per-share value depends on the operating reset translating into higher-quality earnings, not just larger sales; if margin recovery stalls, the company’s scale will not restore prior earnings power.
Bear case: what would count against it
Walmart, Aldi, or Dollar Tree materially improve rural and small-market price/convenience coverage, reducing the need for a nearby Dollar General trip.
Walmart or Dollar Tree starts an extended price-investment cycle in consumables that Dollar General must match to protect traffic.
Wage inflation or labor scheduling needs rise because stores require more staffing to maintain shelves, reduce shrink, and improve customer service.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Dollar General’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Dollar General, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Dollar General.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Dollar General at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Dollar General filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-28: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Dollar General filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Dollar General filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-02: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Walmart, Aldi, or Dollar Tree materially improve rural and small-market price/convenience coverage, reducing the need for a nearby Dollar General trip.
- Walmart or Dollar Tree starts an extended price-investment cycle in consumables that Dollar General must match to protect traffic.
- Wage inflation or labor scheduling needs rise because stores require more staffing to maintain shelves, reduce shrink, and improve customer service.
- Inventory rebuilds or poor sell-through consume working capital before the earnings recovery is complete.
- Persistent labor, shrink, and freight costs prevent operating-margin recovery despite positive sales growth.
DG news
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Financial statements
DG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
DG: quick answers
- When does Dollar General (DG) report earnings next?
- Dollar General's next results are projected for December 3, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is DG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 5.3M DG shares were sold short, 2.38% of its shares outstanding, down 11.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. DG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded DG?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in DG by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 0 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed DG trade
- Which well-known investors own DG?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported DG shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.8%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
DG in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported DG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 0.81% | $104M | No change | Q3 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.08% | $19.8M | −20.6% | Q2 2026 |