Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund
DBPNYSEArcaUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $90.27 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $89.62–$90.25 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.8K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 3:45 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $86.33–$140.76 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own DBP if it remains a tight, liquid, low-leverage wrapper for precious-metals futures and the DBIQ gold/platinum/silver index delivers returns that outweigh fees, roll effects and any tracking frictions.
DBP price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Investor demand for exchange-traded precious-metals exposure remains strong enough for DBP to retain or attract capital, because the fund solves the access problem of owning a diversified precious-metals futures basket without trading futures directly.StrengtheningMateriality: High
FY2025 assets were $257.7 million versus $155.9 million at FY2024 year-end, indicating a materially larger fund base. If this holds, DBP remains relevant and liquid; if it breaks, the product can shrink even if the sponsor executes properly.
Watch: A sustained rise in real interest rates reduces investor demand for gold and other precious metals as portfolio hedges.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 assets were $257.7 million versus $155.9 million at FY2024 year-end, indicating a materially larger fund base.
Open source ↗DBP can keep delivering the intended index exposure only if gold, platinum and silver futures remain practical instruments to hold at the fund’s scale, with position limits and liquidity not forcing materially imperfect substitutes.StrengtheningMateriality: High
FY2025 GAAP net_income was $112.6 million, showing that commodity-linked portfolio gains flowed through to fund results in the latest annual period. This is the core product-risk claim: if futures access weakens, DBP’s only job—tracking its index—becomes harder and the wrapper deserves less investor trust.
Watch: CFTC or futures-exchange position limits become binding enough that DBP must materially substitute away from Index Contracts.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 GAAP net_income was $112.6 million, showing that commodity-linked portfolio gains flowed through to fund results in the latest annual.
Open source ↗Treasury, money-market and T-Bill ETF collateral income continues to cushion fund expenses, so the wrapper’s drag versus the excess-return index does not become the dominant source of shareholder return.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
FY2025 annual revenue, derived from interest income plus noninterest income, was $7.9 million after $8.1 million in FY2024. If collateral yield remains meaningful, investors lose less to fund friction; if yields fall, the same index exposure becomes less efficient after expenses.
Watch: The Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates sharply, reducing income on Treasury and money-market collateral.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 annual revenue, derived from interest income plus noninterest income, was $7.9 million after $8.1 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗DBP’s collateralized futures structure keeps balance-sheet leverage risk low, so commodity volatility should affect NAV through exposure rather than through forced financing stress.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
FY2025 liabilities were only $0.15 million against $257.7 million of assets. If the structure stays low-liability, losses are mainly market-exposure losses; if margin or financing stress emerges, NAV protection and tracking quality can deteriorate quickly.
Watch: CME, COMEX, NYMEX or relevant European exchanges impose sudden margin increases after precious-metals volatility spikes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2025 liabilities were only $0.15 million against $257.7 million of assets.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Investor demand for exchange-traded precious-metals exposure remains strong enough for DBP to retain or attract capital, because the fund solves the access problem of owning a diversified precious-metals futures basket without trading futures directly. If this holds, DBP remains relevant and liquid; if it breaks, the product can shrink even if the sponsor executes properly.
DBP can keep delivering the intended index exposure only if gold, platinum and silver futures remain practical instruments to hold at the fund’s scale, with position limits and liquidity not forcing materially imperfect substitutes. This is the core product-risk claim: if futures access weakens, DBP’s only job—tracking its index—becomes harder and the wrapper deserves less investor trust.
Treasury, money-market and T-Bill ETF collateral income continues to cushion fund expenses, so the wrapper’s drag versus the excess-return index does not become the dominant source of shareholder return. If collateral yield remains meaningful, investors lose less to fund friction; if yields fall, the same index exposure becomes less efficient after expenses.
DBP’s collateralized futures structure keeps balance-sheet leverage risk low, so commodity volatility should affect NAV through exposure rather than through forced financing stress. If the structure stays low-liability, losses are mainly market-exposure losses; if margin or financing stress emerges, NAV protection and tracking quality can deteriorate quickly.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
it remains a tight, liquid, low-leverage wrapper for precious-metals futures and the DBIQ gold/platinum/silver index delivers returns that outweigh fees, roll effects and any tracking frictions.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund
Where the evidence on Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Investor demand for exchange-traded precious-metals exposure remains strong enough for DBP to retain or attract capital, because the fund solves the access problem of owning a diversified precious-metals futures basket without trading futures directly.
DBP can keep delivering the intended index exposure only if gold, platinum and silver futures remain practical instruments to hold at the fund’s scale, with position limits and liquidity not forcing materially imperfect substitutes.
Treasury, money-market and T-Bill ETF collateral income continues to cushion fund expenses, so the wrapper’s drag versus the excess-return index does not become the dominant source of shareholder return.
DBP’s collateralized futures structure keeps balance-sheet leverage risk low, so commodity volatility should affect NAV through exposure rather than through forced financing stress.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained rise in real interest rates reduces investor demand for gold and other precious metals as portfolio hedges.
CFTC or futures-exchange position limits become binding enough that DBP must materially substitute away from Index Contracts.
The Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates sharply, reducing income on Treasury and money-market collateral.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-03: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-08: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained rise in real interest rates reduces investor demand for gold and other precious metals as portfolio hedges.
- CFTC or futures-exchange position limits become binding enough that DBP must materially substitute away from Index Contracts.
- The Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates sharply, reducing income on Treasury and money-market collateral.
- CME, COMEX, NYMEX or relevant European exchanges impose sudden margin increases after precious-metals volatility spikes.
DBP news
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Financial statements
DBP income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
DBP: quick answers
- What is DBP's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 63,287 DBP shares were sold short, up 74.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. DBP short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded DBP?
- 2 trades in DBP have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed DBP trade