Cavco Industries
CVCONASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $655.97 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $640.42–$658.80 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 61.6K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 28 projected Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $443.34–$713.01 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own CVCO if Cavco turns factory-built manufacturing scale plus in-house mortgage and insurance capabilities into higher conversion of consumer demand for affordable, customizable homes — provided financing availability and catastrophic-loss exposure remain manageable.
CVCO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Cavco's CountryPlace lending and distributor commercial loan programs causally increase home sales by expanding buyer and distributor access to financing; if CountryPlace lending scales, revenue growth will outpace peers.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: Company continues to make commercial loan programs available and is investing in home-only lending to grow sales. If true, Cavco can grow organically through better conversion and capture more margin; if false, sales will be constrained by limited external finance for manufactured homes.
Watch: FHFA/GSE reforms do not result in purchases of home-only loans (MD&A: plans yet to meaningfully increase orders).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: Company continues to make commercial loan programs available and is investing in home-only lending to grow sales.
Open source ↗Cavco's manufacturing scale (33 production lines) and large distributor/retail footprint create cost and market advantages that protect pricing power and margins for factory-built homes.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Item 1 Business: 33 homebuilding production lines and large network of independent distributors and 92 Company-owned retail stores. Sustained scale advantages mean gross margin leverage as revenue grows; loss of scale would compress margins and returns.
Watch: Raw-material or labor cost spikes (steel, lumber, labor shortages) that cannot be passed to buyers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business: 33 homebuilding production lines and large network of independent distributors and 92 Company-owned retail stores.
Open source ↗Vertical integration (manufacturing + finance + insurance) converts sales into cash flow more effectively than pure manufacturers, supporting strong operating cash generation and potential shareholder distributions.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow increased from $178,496,000 (FY2025) to $267,491,000 (FY2026). High, steady operating cash flow funds buybacks/dividends or reinvestment; if cash generation weakens, per-share value suffers.
Watch: Servicing obligations requiring remittance to Ginnie Mae/Freddie Mac despite borrower non-payment create cash-flow deficits.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow increased from $178,496,000 (FY2025) to $267,491,000 (FY2026).
Open source ↗Industry demand for manufactured homes is materially dependent on a functioning secondary market for home-only loans (GSE purchases or similar); absent that market, overall industry growth and Cavco order flow will be constrained.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A: lack of an efficient secondary market for home-only loans results in higher borrowing costs and continues to constrain industry growth. If the secondary market expands, it unlocks a larger buyer base and demand; if it does not, market growth will be limited regardless of Cavco's internal efforts.
Watch: Cavco's independent community-based lending or private investors scale sufficiently to substitute for GSE inaction.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: lack of an efficient secondary market for home-only loans results in higher borrowing costs and continues to constrain industry.
Open source ↗Cavco's operating margins are exposed to insurance-loss volatility (Standard Casualty concentrated in Texas) and to production-cost inflation; large catastrophe claims or sustained cost inflation would compress operating income.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating income grew to $228,569,000 (FY2026) from $190,276,000 (FY2025), showing current profitability. Margin compression reduces free cash flow and EPS and can force price competition or reduce returns to shareholders.
Watch: A major hurricane or clustered severe-weather events in Texas causing elevated claims at Standard Casualty.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income grew to $228,569,000 (FY2026) from $190,276,000 (FY2025), showing current profitability.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Cavco's CountryPlace lending and distributor commercial loan programs causally increase home sales by expanding buyer and distributor access to financing; if CountryPlace lending scales, revenue growth will outpace peers. If true, Cavco can grow organically through better conversion and capture more margin; if false, sales will be constrained by limited external finance for manufactured homes.
Cavco's manufacturing scale (33 production lines) and large distributor/retail footprint create cost and market advantages that protect pricing power and margins for factory-built homes. Sustained scale advantages mean gross margin leverage as revenue grows; loss of scale would compress margins and returns.
Vertical integration (manufacturing + finance + insurance) converts sales into cash flow more effectively than pure manufacturers, supporting strong operating cash generation and potential shareholder distributions. High, steady operating cash flow funds buybacks/dividends or reinvestment; if cash generation weakens, per-share value suffers.
Industry demand for manufactured homes is materially dependent on a functioning secondary market for home-only loans (GSE purchases or similar); absent that market, overall industry growth and Cavco order flow will be constrained. If the secondary market expands, it unlocks a larger buyer base and demand; if it does not, market growth will be limited regardless of Cavco's internal efforts.
Cavco's operating margins are exposed to insurance-loss volatility (Standard Casualty concentrated in Texas) and to production-cost inflation; large catastrophe claims or sustained cost inflation would compress operating income. Margin compression reduces free cash flow and EPS and can force price competition or reduce returns to shareholders.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Cavco turns factory-built manufacturing scale plus in-house mortgage and insurance capabilities into higher conversion of consumer demand for affordable, customizable homes — provided financing availability and catastrophic-loss exposure remain manageable.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Cavco Industries
Where the evidence on Cavco Industries stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Cavco's CountryPlace lending and distributor commercial loan programs causally increase home sales by expanding buyer and distributor access to financing; if CountryPlace lending scales, revenue growth will outpace peers.
Cavco's manufacturing scale (33 production lines) and large distributor/retail footprint create cost and market advantages that protect pricing power and margins for factory-built homes.
Vertical integration (manufacturing + finance + insurance) converts sales into cash flow more effectively than pure manufacturers, supporting strong operating cash generation and potential shareholder distributions.
Industry demand for manufactured homes is materially dependent on a functioning secondary market for home-only loans (GSE purchases or similar); absent that market, overall industry growth and Cavco order flow will be constrained.
Cavco's operating margins are exposed to insurance-loss volatility (Standard Casualty concentrated in Texas) and to production-cost inflation; large catastrophe claims or sustained cost inflation would compress operating income.
Bear case: what would count against it
FHFA/GSE reforms do not result in purchases of home-only loans (MD&A: plans yet to meaningfully increase orders).
Raw-material or labor cost spikes (steel, lumber, labor shortages) that cannot be passed to buyers.
Servicing obligations requiring remittance to Ginnie Mae/Freddie Mac despite borrower non-payment create cash-flow deficits.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Cavco Industries
No break has crossed Cavco Industries’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Cavco Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Cavco Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Cavco Industries filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- FHFA/GSE reforms do not result in purchases of home-only loans (MD&A: plans yet to meaningfully increase orders).
- Raw-material or labor cost spikes (steel, lumber, labor shortages) that cannot be passed to buyers.
- Servicing obligations requiring remittance to Ginnie Mae/Freddie Mac despite borrower non-payment create cash-flow deficits.
- Cavco's independent community-based lending or private investors scale sufficiently to substitute for GSE inaction.
- A major hurricane or clustered severe-weather events in Texas causing elevated claims at Standard Casualty.
CVCO news
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Financial statements
CVCO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
CVCO: quick answers
- When does Cavco Industries (CVCO) report earnings next?
- Cavco Industries's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is CVCO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 367,894 CVCO shares were sold short, 4.82% of its shares outstanding, down 11.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.0 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CVCO short interest history
- Which well-known investors own CVCO?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CVCO shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller), 0.5%. Fund portfolios
CVCO in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported CVCO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office | 0.47% | $24.3M | New | Q2 2026 |