Carpenter Technology
CRSNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $297.37 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $292.96–$306.26 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 789.9K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 28 projected Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $270.49–$625.99 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own CRS if its specialty-metal qualifications, pricing power and plant utilization prove to be a structural earnings reset rather than a peak-cycle steel profit spike.
CRS price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Customer qualification and specification requirements for specialty metals keep Carpenter from being priced like commodity steel, so mix and pricing should support structurally higher gross profitability than the FY2023 recovery trough.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The company profile describes Carpenter as engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. If qualification barriers hold, Carpenter can defend price and mix; if they crack, gross profit reverts toward commodity-metal cyclicality.
Watch: Major customers qualify alternate sources such as ATI, Universal Stainless or non-U.S. specialty-alloy mills for materials Carpenter currently supplies.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The company profile describes Carpenter as engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals.
Open source ↗Demand from mission-critical, high-performance applications continues to value supply assurance over lowest-cost metal, so Carpenter should keep converting specialty-metal demand into sales rather than suffering a short restocking-only cycle.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $2.550 billion in FY2023 to $3.124 billion in FY2026. Durable end-market pull gives Carpenter revenue support for its fixed-cost asset base; a demand pause would expose the company to utilization downside.
Watch: Commercial aerospace build-rate cuts by Boeing or Airbus reduce engine and structural material demand before Carpenter revenue rolls over.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $2.550 billion in FY2023 to $3.124 billion in FY2026.
Open source ↗High-fixed-cost specialty-metal melting, rolling and fabrication assets create powerful operating leverage when utilization and yields are high, so operating income should continue to outgrow sales unless volumes, yields or labor reliability deteriorate.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating_income rose from $133.1 million in FY2023 to $702.0 million in FY2026. This is the main bridge from a good product franchise to owner value: if plant leverage holds, incremental sales are very profitable; if it breaks, earnings fall faster than revenue.
Watch: Aerospace or industrial demand slows enough to leave melting and finishing capacity underutilized.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating_income rose from $133.1 million in FY2023 to $702.0 million in FY2026.
Open source ↗Improved margins and working-capital discipline allow Carpenter to fund growth and resilience internally rather than consuming cash in inventory-heavy metal cycles.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating_cash_flow improved from $14.7 million in FY2023 to $605.0 million in FY2026. If cash conversion holds, the company can reinvest and protect the balance sheet; if working capital absorbs the earnings, reported profit is lower quality.
Watch: Nickel, titanium or other alloy input inflation forces a large inventory build before pricing resets.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating_cash_flow improved from $14.7 million in FY2023 to $605.0 million in FY2026.
Open source ↗Carpenter’s cyclical resilience depends on management not levering up at the top of the specialty-metals cycle, preserving balance-sheet capacity for downturns and customer support.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Total liabilities were $1.611 billion at FY2026 year-end versus $1.658 billion at FY2023 year-end, despite much higher earnings. A strong balance sheet lets shareholders survive a cyclical demand or margin reset; debt-funded expansion would magnify downside if FY2026 margins prove peak.
Watch: Management pursues a debt-funded acquisition or capacity expansion just as specialty-metal demand normalizes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Total liabilities were $1.611 billion at FY2026 year-end versus $1.658 billion at FY2023 year-end, despite much higher earnings.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Customer qualification and specification requirements for specialty metals keep Carpenter from being priced like commodity steel, so mix and pricing should support structurally higher gross profitability than the FY2023 recovery trough. If qualification barriers hold, Carpenter can defend price and mix; if they crack, gross profit reverts toward commodity-metal cyclicality.
Demand from mission-critical, high-performance applications continues to value supply assurance over lowest-cost metal, so Carpenter should keep converting specialty-metal demand into sales rather than suffering a short restocking-only cycle. Durable end-market pull gives Carpenter revenue support for its fixed-cost asset base; a demand pause would expose the company to utilization downside.
High-fixed-cost specialty-metal melting, rolling and fabrication assets create powerful operating leverage when utilization and yields are high, so operating income should continue to outgrow sales unless volumes, yields or labor reliability deteriorate. This is the main bridge from a good product franchise to owner value: if plant leverage holds, incremental sales are very profitable; if it breaks, earnings fall faster than revenue.
Improved margins and working-capital discipline allow Carpenter to fund growth and resilience internally rather than consuming cash in inventory-heavy metal cycles. If cash conversion holds, the company can reinvest and protect the balance sheet; if working capital absorbs the earnings, reported profit is lower quality.
Carpenter’s cyclical resilience depends on management not levering up at the top of the specialty-metals cycle, preserving balance-sheet capacity for downturns and customer support. A strong balance sheet lets shareholders survive a cyclical demand or margin reset; debt-funded expansion would magnify downside if FY2026 margins prove peak.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its specialty-metal qualifications, pricing power and plant utilization prove to be a structural earnings reset rather than a peak-cycle steel profit spike.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Carpenter Technology
Where the evidence on Carpenter Technology stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Oct 22, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Customer qualification and specification requirements for specialty metals keep Carpenter from being priced like commodity steel, so mix and pricing should support structurally higher gross profitability than the FY2023 recovery trough.
Demand from mission-critical, high-performance applications continues to value supply assurance over lowest-cost metal, so Carpenter should keep converting specialty-metal demand into sales rather than suffering a short restocking-only cycle.
High-fixed-cost specialty-metal melting, rolling and fabrication assets create powerful operating leverage when utilization and yields are high, so operating income should continue to outgrow sales unless volumes, yields or labor reliability deteriorate.
Improved margins and working-capital discipline allow Carpenter to fund growth and resilience internally rather than consuming cash in inventory-heavy metal cycles.
Carpenter’s cyclical resilience depends on management not levering up at the top of the specialty-metals cycle, preserving balance-sheet capacity for downturns and customer support.
Bear case: what would count against it
Major customers qualify alternate sources such as ATI, Universal Stainless or non-U.S. specialty-alloy mills for materials Carpenter currently supplies.
Commercial aerospace build-rate cuts by Boeing or Airbus reduce engine and structural material demand before Carpenter revenue rolls over.
Aerospace or industrial demand slows enough to leave melting and finishing capacity underutilized.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Carpenter Technology’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Carpenter Technology, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Carpenter Technology.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Carpenter Technology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-15: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Carpenter Technology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-25: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Carpenter Technology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-12: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Major customers qualify alternate sources such as ATI, Universal Stainless or non-U.S. specialty-alloy mills for materials Carpenter currently supplies.
- Commercial aerospace build-rate cuts by Boeing or Airbus reduce engine and structural material demand before Carpenter revenue rolls over.
- Aerospace or industrial demand slows enough to leave melting and finishing capacity underutilized.
- Nickel, titanium or other alloy input inflation forces a large inventory build before pricing resets.
- Management pursues a debt-funded acquisition or capacity expansion just as specialty-metal demand normalizes.
CRS news
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Financial statements
CRS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
CRS: quick answers
- When does Carpenter Technology (CRS) report earnings next?
- Carpenter Technology's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 22, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is CRS's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 1.4M CRS shares were sold short, 2.83% of its shares outstanding, up 6.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.0 day to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CRS short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded CRS?
- 6 trades in CRS have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed CRS trade
- Which well-known investors own CRS?
- 5 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CRS shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel), 3.6%; Third Point (Dan Loeb), 2.8%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
CRS in well-known investors’ portfolios
5 of 37 funds reported CRS shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen MandelLone Pine Capital | 3.6% | $594M | — | Q2 2026 |
| Dan LoebThird Point | 2.8% | $133M | −30.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.12% | $30.1M | +15.1% | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.03% | $2.7M | — | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.00% | $110K | −29.6% | Q2 2026 |