Carter's

CRINYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$34.60
+$0.31 (+0.90%)Today 1M +5.96%
After hours$34.52−0.24%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$34.29
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$33.90–$34.92
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.2M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$27.86–$44.44
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own CRI if its trusted baby-and-young-child apparel franchise and channel scale hold up long enough for margins and cash conversion to normalize, but the latest evidence makes this a recovery thesis, not a clean compounder.

CRI price history

Latest price$34.60Today+$0.31 (+0.90%)
CRI +8.87%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Carter’s specialization in babies and young children remains valuable enough to parents and retailers that the brand can hold shelf space and recapture demand when household budgets normalize.HoldingMateriality: High

    Item 1 profile description identifies Carter’s as North America’s largest and most-enduring apparel company exclusively for babies and young children. If the brand remains relevant, revenue stabilization can support margin recovery; if it loses relevance, the business becomes a low-growth apparel vendor with weaker pricing power.

    Watch: Target, Walmart, Amazon, or other major retail partners shift baby and toddler apparel shelf space toward private label or lower-priced alternatives.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Item 1 profile description identifies Carter’s as North America’s largest and most-enduring apparel company exclusively for babies and young children.

    Open source ↗
  • Carter’s brand acceptance and sourcing scale allow it to manage product costs, tariffs, freight, and markdowns without permanently surrendering gross margin to promotion.HoldingMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP gross profit was $1.315 billion in FY2026 on $2.898 billion of revenue. Gross margin is the first proof that Carter’s still has pricing power; if it deteriorates structurally, revenue recovery will not translate into owner earnings.

    Watch: Private-label baby apparel at mass merchants widens the price gap enough that Carter’s must promote persistently to defend volume.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP gross profit was $1.315 billion in FY2026 on $2.898 billion of revenue.

    Open source ↗
  • Carter’s retail, wholesale, digital, and corporate infrastructure can be rightsized so incremental sales flow through to GAAP operating income rather than being absorbed by labor, occupancy, marketing, and fulfillment costs.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating income was $323.4 million in FY2024 and $254.7 million in FY2025, showing the model has recently produced materially higher profit on similar revenue scale. This determines whether Carter’s is merely a revenue stabilizer or a true earnings recovery story.

    Watch: Store traffic shifts permanently to marketplaces or discount channels, leaving Carter’s with underproductive fixed retail costs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating income was $323.4 million in FY2024 and $254.7 million in FY2025, showing the model has recently produced.

    Open source ↗
  • Inventory and receivables discipline keep Carter’s branded apparel model cash-generative enough to fund reinvestment and shareholder returns without relying on leverage.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow was positive in each fiscal year shown from FY2023 through FY2026. Cash conversion separates a temporary earnings downturn from a balance-sheet or capital-allocation problem.

    Watch: Inventory builds ahead of demand and requires clearance activity that consumes cash before it appears fully in earnings.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow was positive in each fiscal year shown from FY2023 through FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • Carter’s liquidity cushion gives management room to protect brand investment through a children’s-apparel downturn rather than issuing equity or cutting into the franchise.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash was $487.1 million at FY2026 year-end, up from $412.9 million at FY2025 year-end and $351.2 million at FY2024 year-end. A strong cash position buys time for a cyclical recovery, but it only creates value if management does not spend it defending structurally impaired economics.

    Watch: Management uses cash for buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions before the core profit engine has stabilized.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash was $487.1 million at FY2026 year-end, up from $412.9 million at FY2025 year-end and $351.2 million at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Carter’s specialization in babies and young children remains valuable enough to parents and retailers that the brand can hold shelf space and recapture demand when household budgets normalize. If the brand remains relevant, revenue stabilization can support margin recovery; if it loses relevance, the business becomes a low-growth apparel vendor with weaker pricing power.

Carter’s brand acceptance and sourcing scale allow it to manage product costs, tariffs, freight, and markdowns without permanently surrendering gross margin to promotion. Gross margin is the first proof that Carter’s still has pricing power; if it deteriorates structurally, revenue recovery will not translate into owner earnings.

Carter’s retail, wholesale, digital, and corporate infrastructure can be rightsized so incremental sales flow through to GAAP operating income rather than being absorbed by labor, occupancy, marketing, and fulfillment costs. This determines whether Carter’s is merely a revenue stabilizer or a true earnings recovery story.

Inventory and receivables discipline keep Carter’s branded apparel model cash-generative enough to fund reinvestment and shareholder returns without relying on leverage. Cash conversion separates a temporary earnings downturn from a balance-sheet or capital-allocation problem.

Carter’s liquidity cushion gives management room to protect brand investment through a children’s-apparel downturn rather than issuing equity or cutting into the franchise. A strong cash position buys time for a cyclical recovery, but it only creates value if management does not spend it defending structurally impaired economics.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its trusted baby-and-young-child apparel franchise and channel scale hold up long enough for margins and cash conversion to normalize, but the latest evidence makes this a recovery thesis, not a clean compounder.

Evidence assessed Oct 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Carters

Where the evidence on Carters disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 3 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Carter’s specialization in babies and young children remains valuable enough to parents and retailers that the brand can hold shelf space and recapture demand when household budgets normalize.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Carter’s brand acceptance and sourcing scale allow it to manage product costs, tariffs, freight, and markdowns without permanently surrendering gross margin to promotion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Inventory and receivables discipline keep Carter’s branded apparel model cash-generative enough to fund reinvestment and shareholder returns without relying on leverage.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Carter’s liquidity cushion gives management room to protect brand investment through a children’s-apparel downturn rather than issuing equity or cutting into the franchise.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Carter’s retail, wholesale, digital, and corporate infrastructure can be rightsized so incremental sales flow through to GAAP operating income rather than being absorbed by labor, occupancy, marketing, and fulfillment costs.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Carters

Loading the break-condition record for Carters.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Carters filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-21: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Carters filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-20: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Carters filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-31: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Target, Walmart, Amazon, or other major retail partners shift baby and toddler apparel shelf space toward private label or lower-priced alternatives.
  • Private-label baby apparel at mass merchants widens the price gap enough that Carter’s must promote persistently to defend volume.
  • Store traffic shifts permanently to marketplaces or discount channels, leaving Carter’s with underproductive fixed retail costs.
  • Inventory builds ahead of demand and requires clearance activity that consumes cash before it appears fully in earnings.
  • Management uses cash for buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions before the core profit engine has stabilized.

CRI news

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Financial statements

CRI income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

CRI: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded CRI?
2 trades in CRI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed CRI trade
Which well-known investors own CRI?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CRI shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

CRI in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported CRI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$3.6M+40.4%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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