Corpay

CPAYNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$456.01
−$5.94 (−1.29%)Today 1M +14.67%
After hours$456.010.00%

Updated Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$461.95
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$453.98–$465.06
Regular-session low and high so far today.
335.1K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$271.22–$479.53
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own CPAY if Corpay converts the slow, manual B2B payments market into recurring, high-margin revenue by selling a suite of card, AP automation and cross-border FX services that drive wallet share and generate attractive cash returns.

CPAY price history

Latest price$456.01Today−$5.94 (-1.29%)
CPAY +13.69%S&P 500 -2.67%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

3 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Revenue growth will continue to be driven by cross-selling multiple payment products to the same customers (wallet-share expansion on a multi-product platform), not primarily by one-off pricing or one large new customer.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Revenue grew from $3,757,719,000 (2023) to $3,974,589,000 (2024) to $4,528,403,000 (2025). If growth is true wallet-share expansion it is more durable and profitable; if growth is one-offs, revenue and margins can roll over quickly.

    Watch: Large ERP/cloud vendors or fintechs embed AP/payments (e.g., ERP-native AP automation + payments) and take share from third-party platforms.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue grew from $3,757,719,000 (2023) to $3,974,589,000 (2024) to $4,528,403,000 (2025).

    Open source ↗
  • Operating cash flow and free cash generation will remain adequate to fund regular M&A and shareholder returns only insofar as working-capital/settlement asset growth (receivables/float) does not materially increase capital needs.HoldingMateriality: High

    Operating cash flow has been material historically: $2,101,132,000 (2023), $1,940,565,000 (2024) and $1,499,901,000 (2025). If cash conversion remains strong, Corpay can grow and return capital without leverage; if settlement/float assets tie up cash, FCF will fall and leverage or dilution will rise.

    Watch: A large increase in settlement receivables or other assets (assets rose from $17,957,031,000 in 2024 to $26,408,135,000 in 2025) that materially worsens cash conversion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow has been material historically: $2,101,132,000 (2023), $1,940,565,000 (2024) and $1,499,901,000 (2025).

    Open source ↗
  • Corpay's combination of acceptance networks, FX/hedging capability and global footprint provides a defendable moat that preserves pricing power in cross-border and card-based corporate payments.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Operating income increased year-over-year: $1,656,873,000 (2023) → $1,787,157,000 (2024) → $1,994,108,000 (2025). A real moat preserves spreads and enable steady adjusted EBITDA; loss of this advantage would cause margin and revenue pressure.

    Watch: Large banks or agile global fintechs scale low-cost cross-border FX for corporates (e.g., Wise/Revolut expansions or banks bundling FX with ERP integrations).

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating income increased year-over-year: $1,656,873,000 (2023) → $1,787,157,000 (2024) → $1,994,108,000 (2025).

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Revenue growth will continue to be driven by cross-selling multiple payment products to the same customers (wallet-share expansion on a multi-product platform), not primarily by one-off pricing or one large new customer. If growth is true wallet-share expansion it is more durable and profitable; if growth is one-offs, revenue and margins can roll over quickly.

Operating cash flow and free cash generation will remain adequate to fund regular M&A and shareholder returns only insofar as working-capital/settlement asset growth (receivables/float) does not materially increase capital needs. If cash conversion remains strong, Corpay can grow and return capital without leverage; if settlement/float assets tie up cash, FCF will fall and leverage or dilution will rise.

Corpay's combination of acceptance networks, FX/hedging capability and global footprint provides a defendable moat that preserves pricing power in cross-border and card-based corporate payments. A real moat preserves spreads and enable steady adjusted EBITDA; loss of this advantage would cause margin and revenue pressure.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Corpay converts the slow, manual B2B payments market into recurring, high-margin revenue by selling a suite of card, AP automation and cross-border FX services that drive wallet share and generate attractive cash returns.

Evidence assessed Nov 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Corpay

Where the evidence on Corpay stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Revenue growth will continue to be driven by cross-selling multiple payment products to the same customers (wallet-share expansion on a multi-product platform), not primarily by one-off pricing or one large new customer.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Operating cash flow and free cash generation will remain adequate to fund regular M&A and shareholder returns only insofar as working-capital/settlement asset growth (receivables/float) does not materially increase capital needs.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Corpay's combination of acceptance networks, FX/hedging capability and global footprint provides a defendable moat that preserves pricing power in cross-border and card-based corporate payments.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large ERP/cloud vendors or fintechs embed AP/payments (e.g., ERP-native AP automation + payments) and take share from third-party platforms.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A large increase in settlement receivables or other assets (assets rose from $17,957,031,000 in 2024 to $26,408,135,000 in 2025) that materially worsens cash conversion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Large banks or agile global fintechs scale low-cost cross-border FX for corporates (e.g., Wise/Revolut expansions or banks bundling FX with ERP integrations).

    sec.gov ↗

Company research

Research on Corpay

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Corpay

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Corpay’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Corpay filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Corpay filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Corpay filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-24: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large ERP/cloud vendors or fintechs embed AP/payments (e.g., ERP-native AP automation + payments) and take share from third-party platforms.
  • A large increase in settlement receivables or other assets (assets rose from $17,957,031,000 in 2024 to $26,408,135,000 in 2025) that materially worsens cash conversion.
  • Large banks or agile global fintechs scale low-cost cross-border FX for corporates (e.g., Wise/Revolut expansions or banks bundling FX with ERP integrations).

CPAY news

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Financial statements

CPAY income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

CPAY: quick answers

What is CPAY's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 3.6M CPAY shares were sold short, 5.59% of its shares outstanding, up 2.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CPAY short interest history
Have members of Congress traded CPAY?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in CPAY by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 3 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed CPAY trade
Which well-known investors own CPAY?
2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CPAY shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 3.0%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

CPAY in well-known investors’ portfolios

2 of 37 funds reported CPAY shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Chase ColemanTiger Global Management3.0%$716M+22.7%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$2.6MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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