Charter Communications

CHTRNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$132.66
−$3.65 (−2.68%)Today 1M +29.45%
After hours$132.660.00%

Updated Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$136.31
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$131.44–$139.04
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.7M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 29 projected
Projected for 2027-01-29 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$101.11–$254.11
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own CHTR if Charter (Spectrum) converts a large, owned last-mile network and broad scale (58M homes across 41 states) into predictable subscription cash flow and per‑share comp via buybacks — but that cash engine depends on sustained.

CHTR price history

Latest price$132.66Today−$3.65 (-2.68%)
CHTR +25.54%S&P 500 -2.67%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Charter's scale and owned last‑mile network produce predictable, high operating cash flow that funds operations and returns of capital, insulating the business from modest revenue volatility.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    operating_cash_flow = 16,077,000,000 (USD) for FY2025 (up from 14,430,000,000 in FY2024 and 14,433,000,000 in FY2023). If true, the company can fund capex, service debt, and repurchase shares without needing revenue acceleration; if false, cash available for buybacks and debt service will shrink and the valuation will suffer.

    Watch: Mass adoption of 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) in Charter footprint capturing net adds and pressuring ARPU.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow = 16,077,000,000 (USD) for FY2025 (up from 14,430,000,000 in FY2024 and 14,433,000,000 in FY2023).

    Open source ↗
  • Recent EPS gains have come more from share count reduction funded by operating cash flow than from meaningful top‑line growth, so per‑share comp depends on continued access to cash and capital markets to sustain buybacks.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    eps_diluted = 36.21 (USD/shares) in FY2025 vs 34.97 in FY2024 and 29.99 in FY2023 while revenue remained roughly flat (~$54–55B). If cash becomes constrained or debt service rises, buybacks will be cut and EPS growth will slow even if revenue is stable, reducing total shareholder returns.

    Watch: A covenant breach, spike in interest rates, or materially higher debt servicing costs that force reductions in share repurchases.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    eps_diluted = 36.21 (USD/shares) in FY2025 vs 34.97 in FY2024 and 29.99 in FY2023 while revenue remained roughly flat (~$54–55B).

    Open source ↗
  • Charter's operating margins are resilient because broadband subscription economics and scale keep operating_income near prior levels even with flat revenue.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    operating_income remained stable: 12,559,000,000 (FY2023), 13,118,000,000 (FY2024), 12,908,000,000 (FY2025), implying operating margins around ~23–24%. Resilient margins protect free cash flow and the ability to fund debt service and buybacks; margin erosion would be a leading sign of competitive or cost pressure.

    Watch: Sustained increases in programming or carriage costs, or escalating customer acquisition/promotional spending that compress margins.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_income remained stable: 12,559,000,000 (FY2023), 13,118,000,000 (FY2024), 12,908,000,000 (FY2025), implying operating margins around ~23–24%.

    Open source ↗
  • A decision to pursue large, multi‑year fiber upgrades across the footprint would materially increase capex needs and could compress free cash flow and raise leverage, undermining buybacks and EPS growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    operating_cash_flow = 16,077,000,000 (FY2025), currently a cushion against capex increases. If Charter must spend heavily to remain competitively relevant, free cash available for returns and debt reduction could fall, forcing a strategic and valuation reset.

    Watch: A firm, large‑scale public commitment to full‑fiber everywhere (multi‑year rollout plan) with associated capex guidance.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow = 16,077,000,000 (FY2025), currently a cushion against capex increases.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Charter's scale and owned last‑mile network produce predictable, high operating cash flow that funds operations and returns of capital, insulating the business from modest revenue volatility. If true, the company can fund capex, service debt, and repurchase shares without needing revenue acceleration; if false, cash available for buybacks and debt service will shrink and the valuation will suffer.

Recent EPS gains have come more from share count reduction funded by operating cash flow than from meaningful top‑line growth, so per‑share comp depends on continued access to cash and capital markets to sustain buybacks. If cash becomes constrained or debt service rises, buybacks will be cut and EPS growth will slow even if revenue is stable, reducing total shareholder returns.

Charter's operating margins are resilient because broadband subscription economics and scale keep operating_income near prior levels even with flat revenue. Resilient margins protect free cash flow and the ability to fund debt service and buybacks; margin erosion would be a leading sign of competitive or cost pressure.

A decision to pursue large, multi‑year fiber upgrades across the footprint would materially increase capex needs and could compress free cash flow and raise leverage, undermining buybacks and EPS growth. If Charter must spend heavily to remain competitively relevant, free cash available for returns and debt reduction could fall, forcing a strategic and valuation reset.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Charter (Spectrum) converts a large, owned last-mile network and broad scale (58M homes across 41 states) into predictable subscription cash flow and per‑share comp via buybacks — but that cash engine depends on sustained.

Evidence assessed Nov 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Charter Communications

Where the evidence on Charter Communications stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Charter's scale and owned last‑mile network produce predictable, high operating cash flow that funds operations and returns of capital, insulating the business from modest revenue volatility.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Recent EPS gains have come more from share count reduction funded by operating cash flow than from meaningful top‑line growth, so per‑share comp depends on continued access to cash and capital markets to sustain buybacks.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Charter's operating margins are resilient because broadband subscription economics and scale keep operating_income near prior levels even with flat revenue.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A decision to pursue large, multi‑year fiber upgrades across the footprint would materially increase capex needs and could compress free cash flow and raise leverage, undermining buybacks and EPS growth.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Mass adoption of 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) in Charter footprint capturing net adds and pressuring ARPU.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A covenant breach, spike in interest rates, or materially higher debt servicing costs that force reductions in share repurchases.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Sustained increases in programming or carriage costs, or escalating customer acquisition/promotional spending that compress margins.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Charter Communications’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Charter Communications, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Charter Communications.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

  • Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Early warning

The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Charter Communications’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.

  • Operating-margin compression, trailing 12 months

    Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 2,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Several kinds of break have stacked on Charter Communications at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Charter Communications filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Charter Communications filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-27: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Charter Communications filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-19: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Mass adoption of 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) in Charter footprint capturing net adds and pressuring ARPU.
  • A covenant breach, spike in interest rates, or materially higher debt servicing costs that force reductions in share repurchases.
  • Sustained increases in programming or carriage costs, or escalating customer acquisition/promotional spending that compress margins.
  • A firm, large‑scale public commitment to full‑fiber everywhere (multi‑year rollout plan) with associated capex guidance.

CHTR news

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Financial statements

CHTR income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

CHTR: quick answers

When does Charter Communications (CHTR) report earnings next?
Charter Communications's next results are projected for January 29, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 6, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is CHTR's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 17.9M CHTR shares were sold short, 15.6% of its shares outstanding, up 2.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 7.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CHTR short interest history
Which well-known investors own CHTR?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CHTR shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios

CHTR in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported CHTR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.08%$19.6M+206.9%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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