Chord Energy
CHRDNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $138.62 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $139.52–$143.54 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 637.2K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 24 projected Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $87.35–$159.96 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own CHRD if Chord converts a large, low-cost reserve base and recent Williston expansion into strong operating cash flow that funds dividends, buybacks and disciplined reinvestment — while GAAP earnings remain volatile around commodity-price swings and impairments.
CHRD price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Production scale plus low per‑unit operating costs convert into sustained high operating cash flow that can fund dividends, buybacks and reinvestment independent of GAAP net income swings.StrengtheningMateriality: High
NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities (operating_cash_flow) of $2,040,657,000 for FY 2025. If true, owners get reliable shareholder returns and optionality to grow or buy back stock; if false, payouts are at risk and the stock will reprice downward.
Watch: A prolonged decline in realized crude prices and/or wider in‑basin differentials that reduce realized per‑unit revenue before costs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities (operating_cash_flow) of $2,040,657,000 for FY 2025.
Open source ↗GAAP net income will remain volatile and can be driven by non‑cash impairments and accounting items; operating cash flow is a truer indicator of the company’s ability to fund returns.StrengtheningMateriality: High
NetIncomeLoss (net_income) fell to $44,459,000 in FY 2025 from $848,627,000 in FY 2024 due primarily to lower realized prices and a non‑cash goodwill impairment as described in MD&A. Relying on GAAP EPS without regard to cash flow can mislead investors about the company’s capacity to pay dividends and buybacks.
Watch: If future years show alignment between net income and operating cash flow because impairments cease and commodity realizations stabilize (i.e., GAAP earnings recover and remain consistent with cash flow).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
NetIncomeLoss (net_income) fell to $44,459,000 in FY 2025 from $848,627,000 in FY 2024 due primarily to lower realized prices and.
Open source ↗Low lease operating expense and strong gross margins protect cash flow through commodity cycles, giving Chord a cost advantage that supports resilience of margins and payouts.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Derived gross_profit of $3,901,998,000 for FY 2025 implies a high conversion of revenue into gross profit. Cost advantage reduces the price floor at which the company can still generate positive cash and continue shareholder returns; losing it would expose cash flow to commodity downside.
Watch: Sustained cost inflation (service, labor, energy) or higher LOE per Boe that erodes the margin advantage.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Derived gross_profit of $3,901,998,000 for FY 2025 implies a high conversion of revenue into gross profit.
Open source ↗Disciplined capital allocation (dividends + buybacks) will reduce shares outstanding and lift EPS over time even if headline revenue growth is muted, provided operating cash flow stays high.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Company repurchased $364.5 million of common stock in 2025 and had $952.2 million remaining under a $1.0 billion program (MD&A). Share reduction magnifies per‑share returns and can drive EPS and valuation upside without relying solely on commodity-driven revenue growth.
Watch: A requirement to pause buybacks or cut dividends because operating cash flow falls materially (e.g., due to price/differential deterioration).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Company repurchased $364.5 million of common stock in 2025 and had $952.2 million remaining under a $1.0 billion program (MD&A).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Production scale plus low per‑unit operating costs convert into sustained high operating cash flow that can fund dividends, buybacks and reinvestment independent of GAAP net income swings. If true, owners get reliable shareholder returns and optionality to grow or buy back stock; if false, payouts are at risk and the stock will reprice downward.
GAAP net income will remain volatile and can be driven by non‑cash impairments and accounting items; operating cash flow is a truer indicator of the company’s ability to fund returns. Relying on GAAP EPS without regard to cash flow can mislead investors about the company’s capacity to pay dividends and buybacks.
Low lease operating expense and strong gross margins protect cash flow through commodity cycles, giving Chord a cost advantage that supports resilience of margins and payouts. Cost advantage reduces the price floor at which the company can still generate positive cash and continue shareholder returns; losing it would expose cash flow to commodity downside.
Disciplined capital allocation (dividends + buybacks) will reduce shares outstanding and lift EPS over time even if headline revenue growth is muted, provided operating cash flow stays high. Share reduction magnifies per‑share returns and can drive EPS and valuation upside without relying solely on commodity-driven revenue growth.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Chord converts a large, low-cost reserve base and recent Williston expansion into strong operating cash flow that funds dividends, buybacks and disciplined reinvestment — while GAAP earnings remain volatile around commodity-price swings and impairments.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Chord Energy
Where the evidence on Chord Energy stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Production scale plus low per‑unit operating costs convert into sustained high operating cash flow that can fund dividends, buybacks and reinvestment independent of GAAP net income swings.
GAAP net income will remain volatile and can be driven by non‑cash impairments and accounting items; operating cash flow is a truer indicator of the company’s ability to fund returns.
Low lease operating expense and strong gross margins protect cash flow through commodity cycles, giving Chord a cost advantage that supports resilience of margins and payouts.
Disciplined capital allocation (dividends + buybacks) will reduce shares outstanding and lift EPS over time even if headline revenue growth is muted, provided operating cash flow stays high.
Bear case: what would count against it
A prolonged decline in realized crude prices and/or wider in‑basin differentials that reduce realized per‑unit revenue before costs.
If future years show alignment between net income and operating cash flow because impairments cease and commodity realizations stabilize (i.e., GAAP earnings recover and remain consistent with cash flow).
Sustained cost inflation (service, labor, energy) or higher LOE per Boe that erodes the margin advantage.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Chord Energy’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Chord Energy, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Chord Energy.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Chord Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Chord Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-19: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Chord Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A prolonged decline in realized crude prices and/or wider in‑basin differentials that reduce realized per‑unit revenue before costs.
- If future years show alignment between net income and operating cash flow because impairments cease and commodity realizations stabilize (i.e., GAAP earnings recover and remain consistent with cash flow).
- Sustained cost inflation (service, labor, energy) or higher LOE per Boe that erodes the margin advantage.
- A requirement to pause buybacks or cut dividends because operating cash flow falls materially (e.g., due to price/differential deterioration).
CHRD news
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Financial statements
CHRD income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
CHRD: quick answers
- When does Chord Energy (CHRD) report earnings next?
- Chord Energy's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is CHRD's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.3M CHRD shares were sold short, 8.13% of its shares outstanding, up 6.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CHRD short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded CHRD?
- 15 trades in CHRD have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed CHRD trade
- Which well-known investors own CHRD?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CHRD shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Miller Value Partners (Bill Miller), 1.9%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
CHRD in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported CHRD shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill MillerMiller Value Partners | 1.9% | $7.9M | −0.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.05% | $12.5M | New | Q2 2026 |