CareDx
CDNANASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $80.77 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $80.18–$84.10 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 770.8K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 11 projected Projected for 2027-01-11 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $15.15–$90.87 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own CDNA if its transplant-focused diagnostics remain embedded in routine post-transplant monitoring and that repeat-use franchise converts into durable cash flow rather than payer-driven margin volatility.
CDNA price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
CareDx’s transplant-specific focus must keep it clinically relevant as a recurring monitoring partner rather than a one-time diagnostic vendor.StrengtheningMateriality: High
CareDx describes itself in the company overview as a precision medicine company dedicated to improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health. If this holds, revenue can compound from repeat transplant monitoring; if it breaks, growth becomes much more dependent on new product cycles or pricing.
Watch: Natera’s Prospera or another competing transplant molecular test wins transplant-center protocols away from CareDx.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
CareDx describes itself in the company overview as a precision medicine company dedicated to improving outcomes for transplant patients and.
Open source ↗The testing franchise must remain reimbursable and collectible, because transplant-monitoring demand has little equity value if payer rules prevent tests from becoming cash.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $18.4 million in FY2023 to positive $38.0 million in FY2024. If collections remain healthy, growth can fund the business internally; if coverage or denial rates worsen, reported revenue may overstate economic value.
Watch: Medicare contractors or commercial payers narrow coverage for transplant molecular monitoring tests.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $18.4 million in FY2023 to positive $38.0 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗CareDx must prove its lab, commercial, and compliance infrastructure can scale, because the moat is not valuable if higher adoption requires recurring margin resets.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income improved sharply from a $203.4 million loss in FY2023 to $40.8 million income in FY2024. If operating leverage returns, revenue growth can become per-share earnings power; if not, the company remains a volatile diagnostics story rather than a compounding business.
Watch: Competitors force CareDx to increase selling, clinical-evidence, or pricing concessions to defend transplant-center share.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income improved sharply from a $203.4 million loss in FY2023 to $40.8 million income in FY2024.
Open source ↗The balance sheet must give CareDx enough time to defend reimbursement, fund evidence generation, and invest in transplant products without forced dilution or financial retrenchment.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents were $65.4 million at FY2025 year-end. If liquidity remains adequate, management can protect the franchise through payer and competitive cycles; if liquidity tightens, shareholders may fund the strategy on worse terms.
Watch: A reimbursement shock causes cash collections to fall before costs can be reduced.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents were $65.4 million at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
CareDx’s transplant-specific focus must keep it clinically relevant as a recurring monitoring partner rather than a one-time diagnostic vendor. If this holds, revenue can compound from repeat transplant monitoring; if it breaks, growth becomes much more dependent on new product cycles or pricing.
The testing franchise must remain reimbursable and collectible, because transplant-monitoring demand has little equity value if payer rules prevent tests from becoming cash. If collections remain healthy, growth can fund the business internally; if coverage or denial rates worsen, reported revenue may overstate economic value.
CareDx must prove its lab, commercial, and compliance infrastructure can scale, because the moat is not valuable if higher adoption requires recurring margin resets. If operating leverage returns, revenue growth can become per-share earnings power; if not, the company remains a volatile diagnostics story rather than a compounding business.
The balance sheet must give CareDx enough time to defend reimbursement, fund evidence generation, and invest in transplant products without forced dilution or financial retrenchment. If liquidity remains adequate, management can protect the franchise through payer and competitive cycles; if liquidity tightens, shareholders may fund the strategy on worse terms.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its transplant-focused diagnostics remain embedded in routine post-transplant monitoring and that repeat-use franchise converts into durable cash flow rather than payer-driven margin volatility.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for CareDx
Where the evidence on CareDx stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 25, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
CareDx’s transplant-specific focus must keep it clinically relevant as a recurring monitoring partner rather than a one-time diagnostic vendor.
The testing franchise must remain reimbursable and collectible, because transplant-monitoring demand has little equity value if payer rules prevent tests from becoming cash.
CareDx must prove its lab, commercial, and compliance infrastructure can scale, because the moat is not valuable if higher adoption requires recurring margin resets.
The balance sheet must give CareDx enough time to defend reimbursement, fund evidence generation, and invest in transplant products without forced dilution or financial retrenchment.
Bear case: what would count against it
Natera’s Prospera or another competing transplant molecular test wins transplant-center protocols away from CareDx.
Medicare contractors or commercial payers narrow coverage for transplant molecular monitoring tests.
Competitors force CareDx to increase selling, clinical-evidence, or pricing concessions to defend transplant-center share.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in CareDx’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on CareDx, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for CareDx.
- Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
CareDx filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedCompleted an acquisition or disposition of assets.
CareDx filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-07: Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
CareDx filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-15: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Natera’s Prospera or another competing transplant molecular test wins transplant-center protocols away from CareDx.
- Medicare contractors or commercial payers narrow coverage for transplant molecular monitoring tests.
- Competitors force CareDx to increase selling, clinical-evidence, or pricing concessions to defend transplant-center share.
- A reimbursement shock causes cash collections to fall before costs can be reduced.
CDNA news
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Financial statements
CDNA income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
CDNA: quick answers
- When does CareDx (CDNA) report earnings next?
- CareDx's next results are projected for January 11, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is CDNA's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 7.2M CDNA shares were sold short, 13.7% of its shares outstanding, up 7.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CDNA short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded CDNA?
- 14 trades in CDNA have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed CDNA trade
- Which well-known investors own CDNA?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CDNA shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.4%. Fund portfolios
CDNA in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported CDNA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.36% | $55.7M | −12.3% | Q2 2026 |