Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

CCEPNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$117.87
+$0.32 (+0.27%)Today 1M +13.06%
After hours$117.81−0.05%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$117.55
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$115.76–$117.94
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.5M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$84.66–$119.09
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own CCEP if CCEP is a Coca-Cola-system bottler whose value creation depends on whether protected local distribution rights, brand-led retailer demand, and route density can keep turning mature beverage volumes into pricing, margins, cash, and per-share growth.

CCEP price history

Latest price$117.87Today+$0.32 (+0.27%)
CCEP +12.88%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Coca-Cola-system brand demand plus CCEP’s local bottling and distribution role keep retailers dependent on its portfolio, so mature-market beverage demand continues to convert into revenue rather than being displaced by private label or rival branded drinks.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    IFRS annual revenue increased from €17.320 billion in FY2022 to €20.901 billion in FY2025. If the route-to-market franchise holds, CCEP can grow value in a low-growth category; if shelf relevance erodes, the business becomes a lower-quality commodity distributor.

    Watch: Major grocery and convenience retailers allocate more shelf and promotion space to private label beverages or local challenger brands.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS annual revenue increased from €17.320 billion in FY2022 to €20.901 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Brand pull, package mix, and local execution give CCEP enough pricing power to offset concentrate, packaging, sugar, energy, and logistics inflation without structurally damaging gross economics.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    IFRS annual gross profit rose from €6.224 billion in FY2022 to €7.440 billion in FY2025. The owner needs growth that is profitable, not revenue bought by absorbing commodity and retailer cost pressure.

    Watch: Aluminum, PET, sugar, energy, labor, or freight inflation accelerates while retailers refuse further list-price increases.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS annual gross profit rose from €6.224 billion in FY2022 to €7.440 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • CCEP’s bottling scale, procurement, manufacturing footprint, and route density can turn gross profit into operating profit, so revenue growth should not require proportionate growth in overhead and distribution cost.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    IFRS annual operating income rose to €2.793 billion in FY2025 from €2.132 billion in FY2024. Operating leverage is what turns a defensive beverage bottler into an earnings compounder; if it fails, revenue growth adds little owner value.

    Watch: Manufacturing, warehousing, or IT integration problems create service failures or duplicate costs across markets.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS annual operating income rose to €2.793 billion in FY2025 from €2.132 billion in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • The high-velocity beverage distribution model keeps converting accounting profit into operating cash, giving CCEP room to fund capital needs, dividends, deleveraging, and possible buybacks without depending on external financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    IFRS annual operating cash flow was €2.953 billion in FY2025 versus IFRS annual net income of €1.979 billion. Cash conversion determines whether reported earnings translate into per-share value rather than being consumed by working capital and capital intensity.

    Watch: Large retailers extend payment terms or demand promotional funding, causing a working-capital cash drain.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS annual operating cash flow was €2.953 billion in FY2025 versus IFRS annual net income of €1.979 billion.

    Open source ↗
  • Stable bottler cash flows and disciplined capital allocation must keep leverage from crowding out reinvestment and shareholder returns, especially if acquisitions or currency moves add balance-sheet pressure.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    IFRS liabilities declined from €22.115 billion at FY2024 year-end to €21.569 billion at FY2025 year-end. The equity is more attractive if cash flow compounds to owners; it is less attractive if debt service and refinancing absorb the economics.

    Watch: A debt-funded acquisition or integration overrun increases obligations before synergies and cash flow materialize.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS liabilities declined from €22.115 billion at FY2024 year-end to €21.569 billion at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Coca-Cola-system brand demand plus CCEP’s local bottling and distribution role keep retailers dependent on its portfolio, so mature-market beverage demand continues to convert into revenue rather than being displaced by private label or rival branded drinks. If the route-to-market franchise holds, CCEP can grow value in a low-growth category; if shelf relevance erodes, the business becomes a lower-quality commodity distributor.

Brand pull, package mix, and local execution give CCEP enough pricing power to offset concentrate, packaging, sugar, energy, and logistics inflation without structurally damaging gross economics. The owner needs growth that is profitable, not revenue bought by absorbing commodity and retailer cost pressure.

CCEP’s bottling scale, procurement, manufacturing footprint, and route density can turn gross profit into operating profit, so revenue growth should not require proportionate growth in overhead and distribution cost. Operating leverage is what turns a defensive beverage bottler into an earnings compounder; if it fails, revenue growth adds little owner value.

The high-velocity beverage distribution model keeps converting accounting profit into operating cash, giving CCEP room to fund capital needs, dividends, deleveraging, and possible buybacks without depending on external financing. Cash conversion determines whether reported earnings translate into per-share value rather than being consumed by working capital and capital intensity.

Stable bottler cash flows and disciplined capital allocation must keep leverage from crowding out reinvestment and shareholder returns, especially if acquisitions or currency moves add balance-sheet pressure. The equity is more attractive if cash flow compounds to owners; it is less attractive if debt service and refinancing absorb the economics.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

CCEP is a Coca-Cola-system bottler whose value creation depends on whether protected local distribution rights, brand-led retailer demand, and route density can keep turning mature beverage volumes into pricing, margins, cash, and per-share growth.

Evidence assessed Nov 6, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS

Where the evidence on COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 6, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Coca-Cola-system brand demand plus CCEP’s local bottling and distribution role keep retailers dependent on its portfolio, so mature-market beverage demand continues to convert into revenue rather than being displaced by private label or rival branded drinks.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Brand pull, package mix, and local execution give CCEP enough pricing power to offset concentrate, packaging, sugar, energy, and logistics inflation without structurally damaging gross economics.

    sec.gov ↗

  • CCEP’s bottling scale, procurement, manufacturing footprint, and route density can turn gross profit into operating profit, so revenue growth should not require proportionate growth in overhead and distribution cost.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The high-velocity beverage distribution model keeps converting accounting profit into operating cash, giving CCEP room to fund capital needs, dividends, deleveraging, and possible buybacks without depending on external financing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Stable bottler cash flows and disciplined capital allocation must keep leverage from crowding out reinvestment and shareholder returns, especially if acquisitions or currency moves add balance-sheet pressure.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Major grocery and convenience retailers allocate more shelf and promotion space to private label beverages or local challenger brands.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Aluminum, PET, sugar, energy, labor, or freight inflation accelerates while retailers refuse further list-price increases.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Manufacturing, warehousing, or IT integration problems create service failures or duplicate costs across markets.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS filed an SEC report on 2026-11-06: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS filed an SEC report on 2026-11-03: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS filed an SEC report on 2026-11-02: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major grocery and convenience retailers allocate more shelf and promotion space to private label beverages or local challenger brands.
  • Aluminum, PET, sugar, energy, labor, or freight inflation accelerates while retailers refuse further list-price increases.
  • Manufacturing, warehousing, or IT integration problems create service failures or duplicate costs across markets.
  • Large retailers extend payment terms or demand promotional funding, causing a working-capital cash drain.
  • A debt-funded acquisition or integration overrun increases obligations before synergies and cash flow materialize.

CCEP news

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Financial statements

CCEP income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

CCEP: quick answers

What is CCEP's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 13.6M CCEP shares were sold short, down 1.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 7.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CCEP short interest history
Have members of Congress traded CCEP?
14 trades in CCEP have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed CCEP trade
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