CAVA Group

CAVANYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$59.80
−$0.59 (−0.98%)Today 1M +12.58%
After hours$59.75−0.08%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$60.39
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$58.86–$60.63
Regular-session low and high so far today.
3.9M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$43.41–$98.79
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own CAVA if its Mediterranean fast-casual concept keeps traveling into new markets with enough traffic, pricing power, and operating discipline to turn rapid unit growth into cash and per-share earnings.

CAVA price history

Latest price$59.80Today−$0.59 (-0.98%)
CAVA +16.67%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • CAVA’s Mediterranean “eat well” positioning continues to travel into new markets, allowing new restaurants to create incremental demand rather than merely shifting sales from existing locations.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $500.1 million in FY2021 to $1.18 billion in FY2025, evidence that the format has already scaled well beyond its earlier base. If the concept travels, the company has a long unit-growth runway; if it does not, revenue growth will increasingly require lower-return openings or discounting.

    Watch: New markets show weak trial or repeat traffic because the brand is less known outside core regions.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $500.1 million in FY2021 to $1.18 billion in FY2025, evidence that the format has already.

    Open source ↗
  • Menu and brand differentiation preserve pricing power despite value-seeking consumers and copycats, so growth does not require margin-dilutive promotions.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating income improved from a $59.8 million loss in FY2022 to $4.7 million of income in FY2023, $43.1 million in FY2024, and $55.3 million in FY2025. Pricing power determines whether sales growth becomes operating profit or is competed away through food, labor, and discount costs.

    Watch: A fast-casual price war forces CAVA to rely on promotions or lower-price bundles to hold traffic.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income improved from a $59.8 million loss in FY2022 to $4.7 million of income in FY2023, $43.1.

    Open source ↗
  • Scale and restaurant execution keep the opening model internally fundable, so expansion remains an operating-cash-flow story rather than an external-capital story.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow rose from $6.0 million in FY2022 to $97.1 million in FY2023, $161.0 million in FY2024, and $184.8 million in FY2025. Self-funded growth lets shareholders benefit from expansion without excessive leverage or dilution; if cash generation lags unit growth, the growth runway becomes more expensive.

    Watch: Construction costs, permitting delays, or landlord terms make new restaurants materially more expensive to open.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow rose from $6.0 million in FY2022 to $97.1 million in FY2023, $161.0 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Management can convert restaurant growth into durable per-share earnings as the base matures; otherwise, rapid sales growth will not translate into owner value.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS turned positive after FY2022, with $0.21 in FY2023, $1.10 in FY2024, and $0.54 in FY2025. Shareholders ultimately need profitable growth per share, not just a larger store base or higher system sales.

    Watch: Pre-opening expenses, corporate overhead, or stock-based compensation grow faster than restaurant-level profit.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS turned positive after FY2022, with $0.21 in FY2023, $1.10 in FY2024, and $0.54 in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • CAVA’s liquidity gives management the option to keep selecting quality sites and absorb volatility without being forced into poor locations or high-cost financing.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Cash was $282.9 million at FY2025, materially above the $39.1 million reported at FY2022. A strong liquidity position protects the rollout during cyclical stress; if liquidity erodes, management may have to slow growth or accept worse unit economics.

    Watch: Management accelerates openings faster than internally generated cash can support.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash was $282.9 million at FY2025, materially above the $39.1 million reported at FY2022.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

CAVA’s Mediterranean “eat well” positioning continues to travel into new markets, allowing new restaurants to create incremental demand rather than merely shifting sales from existing locations. If the concept travels, the company has a long unit-growth runway; if it does not, revenue growth will increasingly require lower-return openings or discounting.

Menu and brand differentiation preserve pricing power despite value-seeking consumers and copycats, so growth does not require margin-dilutive promotions. Pricing power determines whether sales growth becomes operating profit or is competed away through food, labor, and discount costs.

Scale and restaurant execution keep the opening model internally fundable, so expansion remains an operating-cash-flow story rather than an external-capital story. Self-funded growth lets shareholders benefit from expansion without excessive leverage or dilution; if cash generation lags unit growth, the growth runway becomes more expensive.

Management can convert restaurant growth into durable per-share earnings as the base matures; otherwise, rapid sales growth will not translate into owner value. Shareholders ultimately need profitable growth per share, not just a larger store base or higher system sales.

CAVA’s liquidity gives management the option to keep selecting quality sites and absorb volatility without being forced into poor locations or high-cost financing. A strong liquidity position protects the rollout during cyclical stress; if liquidity erodes, management may have to slow growth or accept worse unit economics.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its Mediterranean fast-casual concept keeps traveling into new markets with enough traffic, pricing power, and operating discipline to turn rapid unit growth into cash and per-share earnings.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for CAVA Group

Where the evidence on CAVA Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • CAVA’s Mediterranean “eat well” positioning continues to travel into new markets, allowing new restaurants to create incremental demand rather than merely shifting sales from existing locations.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Menu and brand differentiation preserve pricing power despite value-seeking consumers and copycats, so growth does not require margin-dilutive promotions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Scale and restaurant execution keep the opening model internally fundable, so expansion remains an operating-cash-flow story rather than an external-capital story.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management can convert restaurant growth into durable per-share earnings as the base matures; otherwise, rapid sales growth will not translate into owner value.

    sec.gov ↗

  • CAVA’s liquidity gives management the option to keep selecting quality sites and absorb volatility without being forced into poor locations or high-cost financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • New markets show weak trial or repeat traffic because the brand is less known outside core regions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A fast-casual price war forces CAVA to rely on promotions or lower-price bundles to hold traffic.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Construction costs, permitting delays, or landlord terms make new restaurants materially more expensive to open.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · CAVA Group

Loading the break-condition record for CAVA Group.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    CAVA Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-18: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    CAVA Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-11: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    CAVA Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-03: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • New markets show weak trial or repeat traffic because the brand is less known outside core regions.
  • A fast-casual price war forces CAVA to rely on promotions or lower-price bundles to hold traffic.
  • Construction costs, permitting delays, or landlord terms make new restaurants materially more expensive to open.
  • Pre-opening expenses, corporate overhead, or stock-based compensation grow faster than restaurant-level profit.
  • Management accelerates openings faster than internally generated cash can support.

CAVA news

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Financial statements

CAVA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

CAVA: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded CAVA?
1 trade in CAVA has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed CAVA trade
Which well-known investors own CAVA?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CAVA shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

CAVA in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported CAVA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.00%$489K−0.9%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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