Blackstone Mortgage Trust
BXMTNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $11.10 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $10.84–$11.09 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.9M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 10 projected Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $10.12–$20.67 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own BXMT if Blackstone Mortgage Trust leverages Blackstone's sourcing, underwriting and financing platform to originate a large, senior commercial mortgage portfolio and monetize the spread between loan yields and diversified low-cost funding (CLOs, secured facilities), but its.
BXMT price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Blackstone's platform and underwriting generate a higher-quality, senior loan portfolio that keeps realized losses manageable and preserves book value through cycles.HoldingMateriality: High
Assets (total) ~ $20.00 billion as of 2025-12-31, reflecting a large, diversified portfolio (field: assets). If underwriting and platform access hold, BXMT avoids big charge-offs, preserves book value, and supports dividends and buybacks; if it fails, charge-offs and reserve builds will destroy TBV and dividend coverage.
Watch: A sustained wave of CRE borrower defaults concentrated in office or other weak sub-sectors (e.g., large multi-borrower impairment events).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Assets (total) ~ $20.00 billion as of 2025-12-31, reflecting a large, diversified portfolio (field: assets).
Open source ↗BXMT's ability to sustain GAAP and distributable earnings depends on keeping realized credit losses and CECL reserve builds modest relative to income; large charge-offs will swing earnings and distributable cash materially.HoldingMateriality: High
Net income swung from a loss of $(204,088,000) in FY2024 to GAAP net income of $109,569,000 in FY2025 (fields: net_income for 2024 and 2025). Holding losses within CECL preserves GAAP net income and distributable earnings to support dividends; if losses recur at 2024 magnitude the dividend and TBV will be undercut and the stock will likely de-rate.
Watch: A new cohort of impaired loans (e.g., concentrated office collateral defaults) producing charge-offs materially above current CECL levels.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Net income swung from a loss of $(204,088,000) in FY2024 to GAAP net income of $109,569,000 in FY2025 (fields: net_income.
Open source ↗BXMT's cash generation and margin depend on managing funding costs via diversified financing (CLOs, secured facilities, refinancing); rising funding costs or loss of CLO access will compress operating cash flow.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow has declined from $458,841,000 (2023) to $366,453,000 (2024) to $275,873,000 (2025), showing sensitivity of cash generation to portfolio and funding activity (field: operating_cash_flow). If BXMT can refinance and issue CLOs at competitive spreads it preserves operating cash flow to pay dividends; if funding becomes more expensive or unavailable, operating_cash_flow will decline and dividend coverage will worsen.
Watch: A market disruption that freezes the CLO market or materially widens spreads vs benchmarks.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow has declined from $458,841,000 (2023) to $366,453,000 (2024) to $275,873,000 (2025), showing sensitivity of cash generation to.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Blackstone's platform and underwriting generate a higher-quality, senior loan portfolio that keeps realized losses manageable and preserves book value through cycles. If underwriting and platform access hold, BXMT avoids big charge-offs, preserves book value, and supports dividends and buybacks; if it fails, charge-offs and reserve builds will destroy TBV and dividend coverage.
BXMT's ability to sustain GAAP and distributable earnings depends on keeping realized credit losses and CECL reserve builds modest relative to income; large charge-offs will swing earnings and distributable cash materially. Holding losses within CECL preserves GAAP net income and distributable earnings to support dividends; if losses recur at 2024 magnitude the dividend and TBV will be undercut and the stock will likely de-rate.
BXMT's cash generation and margin depend on managing funding costs via diversified financing (CLOs, secured facilities, refinancing); rising funding costs or loss of CLO access will compress operating cash flow. If BXMT can refinance and issue CLOs at competitive spreads it preserves operating cash flow to pay dividends; if funding becomes more expensive or unavailable, operating_cash_flow will decline and dividend coverage will worsen.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Blackstone Mortgage Trust leverages Blackstone's sourcing, underwriting and financing platform to originate a large, senior commercial mortgage portfolio and monetize the spread between loan yields and diversified low-cost funding (CLOs, secured facilities), but its.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Blackstone Mortgage Trust
Where the evidence on Blackstone Mortgage Trust stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Blackstone's platform and underwriting generate a higher-quality, senior loan portfolio that keeps realized losses manageable and preserves book value through cycles.
BXMT's ability to sustain GAAP and distributable earnings depends on keeping realized credit losses and CECL reserve builds modest relative to income; large charge-offs will swing earnings and distributable cash materially.
BXMT's cash generation and margin depend on managing funding costs via diversified financing (CLOs, secured facilities, refinancing); rising funding costs or loss of CLO access will compress operating cash flow.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained wave of CRE borrower defaults concentrated in office or other weak sub-sectors (e.g., large multi-borrower impairment events).
A new cohort of impaired loans (e.g., concentrated office collateral defaults) producing charge-offs materially above current CECL levels.
A market disruption that freezes the CLO market or materially widens spreads vs benchmarks.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Blackstone Mortgage Trust
No break has crossed Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Blackstone Mortgage Trust filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Blackstone Mortgage Trust filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-19: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained wave of CRE borrower defaults concentrated in office or other weak sub-sectors (e.g., large multi-borrower impairment events).
- A new cohort of impaired loans (e.g., concentrated office collateral defaults) producing charge-offs materially above current CECL levels.
- A market disruption that freezes the CLO market or materially widens spreads vs benchmarks.
BXMT news
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Financial statements
BXMT income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
BXMT: quick answers
- When does Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) report earnings next?
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is BXMT's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 12.8M BXMT shares were sold short, 7.69% of its shares outstanding, up 0.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BXMT short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded BXMT?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in BXMT by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed BXMT trade