BorgWarner

BWANYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the BWA thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$50.45
−$0.99 (−1.92%)Today 1M −17.70%
After hours$50.450.00%

Updated Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

—
Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
—
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
—
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$51.44
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$50.28–$51.67
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.3M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 10 projected
Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$40.73–$78.82
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own BWA if that vehicle-content durability converts back into materially better margins and per-share earnings.

BWA price history

LATEST PRICE$50.45TODAY−$0.99 (-1.92%)
BWA -16.84%S&P 500 -3.68%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

INVESTMENT THESIS

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • OEM outsourcing and BorgWarner’s engineering-qualified vehicle content remain durable enough to keep the sales base intact across the propulsion transition.HoldingMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP revenue was $14.316 billion in FY2025, slightly above $14.086 billion in FY2024. If this holds, BorgWarner has a large revenue platform to improve margins from; if it breaks, margin recovery cannot offset lost platform content.

    Watch: Major automakers insource propulsion, drivetrain, or electrified-component systems that BorgWarner currently supplies.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP revenue was $14.316 billion in FY2025, slightly above $14.086 billion in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • BorgWarner’s pricing, purchasing, and manufacturing capabilities are still offsetting enough OEM price pressure and input-cost volatility to protect gross-profit dollars.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP gross profit increased to $2.674 billion in FY2025 from $2.648 billion in FY2024. Gross-profit resilience is the first proof that revenue is not being bought at uneconomic prices.

    Watch: OEMs impose larger annual price-downs without matching cost relief.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP gross profit increased to $2.674 billion in FY2025 from $2.648 billion in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • The transition portfolio must stop absorbing fixed costs, restructuring expense, and launch inefficiency so stable demand can convert back into operating income.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating income remained positive at $536 million in FY2025. This is the difference between a resilient supplier franchise and a low-return revenue base.

    Watch: EV or hybrid program delays leave BorgWarner with underutilized plants and engineering expense ahead of volume.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating income remained positive at $536 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • BorgWarner’s liquidity and liability discipline give it time to fund product-transition investment and auto-cycle volatility without being forced into value-destructive financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash was $2.313 billion at FY2025 year-end, up from $2.094 billion at FY2024 year-end. A strong liquidity position lets management invest through the cycle and protects owners from forced dilution or distressed balance-sheet actions.

    Watch: A vehicle-production downturn causes working-capital absorption and cash burn before cost actions take effect.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash was $2.313 billion at FY2025 year-end, up from $2.094 billion at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Per-share value creation depends on converting engineering content into earnings after OEM price-downs and transition costs, and the current earnings trajectory has not yet proven that conversion.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP diluted EPS was positive at $1.28 in FY2025. Owners do not benefit from stable sales if those sales fail to rebuild EPS and cash returns per share.

    Watch: Program mix shifts toward lower-margin components faster than management can reduce legacy fixed costs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP diluted EPS was positive at $1.28 in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

OEM outsourcing and BorgWarner’s engineering-qualified vehicle content remain durable enough to keep the sales base intact across the propulsion transition. If this holds, BorgWarner has a large revenue platform to improve margins from; if it breaks, margin recovery cannot offset lost platform content.

BorgWarner’s pricing, purchasing, and manufacturing capabilities are still offsetting enough OEM price pressure and input-cost volatility to protect gross-profit dollars. Gross-profit resilience is the first proof that revenue is not being bought at uneconomic prices.

The transition portfolio must stop absorbing fixed costs, restructuring expense, and launch inefficiency so stable demand can convert back into operating income. This is the difference between a resilient supplier franchise and a low-return revenue base.

BorgWarner’s liquidity and liability discipline give it time to fund product-transition investment and auto-cycle volatility without being forced into value-destructive financing. A strong liquidity position lets management invest through the cycle and protects owners from forced dilution or distressed balance-sheet actions.

Per-share value creation depends on converting engineering content into earnings after OEM price-downs and transition costs, and the current earnings trajectory has not yet proven that conversion. Owners do not benefit from stable sales if those sales fail to rebuild EPS and cash returns per share.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

that vehicle-content durability converts back into materially better margins and per-share earnings.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

BULL CASE / BEAR CASE

Bull case and bear case for Borgwarner

Where the evidence on Borgwarner disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 1 holding and 2 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • OEM outsourcing and BorgWarner’s engineering-qualified vehicle content remain durable enough to keep the sales base intact across the propulsion transition.

    sec.gov ↗

  • BorgWarner’s pricing, purchasing, and manufacturing capabilities are still offsetting enough OEM price pressure and input-cost volatility to protect gross-profit dollars.

    sec.gov ↗

  • BorgWarner’s liquidity and liability discipline give it time to fund product-transition investment and auto-cycle volatility without being forced into value-destructive financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • The transition portfolio must stop absorbing fixed costs, restructuring expense, and launch inefficiency so stable demand can convert back into operating income.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Per-share value creation depends on converting engineering content into earnings after OEM price-downs and transition costs, and the current earnings trajectory has not yet proven that conversion.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Borgwarner

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Borgwarner’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. MIXED
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Borgwarner filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-04: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. MIXED
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Borgwarner filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-10: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Borgwarner filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

RISKS / FALSIFIERS

What could break the thesis

  • Major automakers insource propulsion, drivetrain, or electrified-component systems that BorgWarner currently supplies.
  • OEMs impose larger annual price-downs without matching cost relief.
  • EV or hybrid program delays leave BorgWarner with underutilized plants and engineering expense ahead of volume.
  • A vehicle-production downturn causes working-capital absorption and cash burn before cost actions take effect.
  • Program mix shifts toward lower-margin components faster than management can reduce legacy fixed costs.

BWA news

Loading headlines…

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

BWA income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

BWA: quick answers

When does Borgwarner (BWA) report earnings next?
Borgwarner's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is BWA's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 6.0M BWA shares were sold short, down 11.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BWA short interest history
Have members of Congress traded BWA?
24 trades in BWA have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed BWA trade
Which well-known investors own BWA?
2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported BWA shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.2%; Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

BWA in well-known investors’ portfolios

2 of 37 funds reported BWA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.17%$41.4M−4.0%Q2 2026
George SorosSoros Fund Management0.02%$1.3MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.