British American Tobacco p.l.c.
BTINYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $60.82 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $60.09–$61.07 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $52.06–$67.30 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own BTI if its regulated cigarette cash cow can keep pricing ahead of volume decline while BAT-owned nicotine alternatives prevent customers from migrating to rivals or illicit products.
BTI price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
BAT’s regulated premium cigarette franchises retain enough pricing power to absorb secular volume decline rather than letting smoking attrition translate directly into revenue erosion.HoldingMateriality: High
IFRS annual revenue was £25.610 billion in FY2025 versus £25.684 billion in FY2021, showing broad nominal stability over five years despite secular smoking pressure. If this holds, cigarettes remain the cash engine funding the transition; if it breaks, the whole investment becomes an unmanaged runoff.
Watch: A rapid consumer trade-down from premium cigarette brands to illicit or low-price tobacco that forces BAT to stop taking price.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
IFRS annual revenue was £25.610 billion in FY2025 versus £25.684 billion in FY2021, showing broad nominal stability over five years.
Open source ↗BAT must keep nicotine users inside its own ecosystem as smokers migrate to vapor, heated tobacco and oral nicotine, rather than letting the category shift transfer economics to competitors or illicit disposable products.HoldingMateriality: High
IFRS annual operating income recovered to £9.997 billion in FY2025, close to the FY2021-FY2022 level of about £10.2-£10.5 billion. This determines whether reduced-risk products extend BAT’s franchise or cannibalize its cigarette profits while rivals capture the future pool of nicotine profit.
Watch: Philip Morris International’s IQOS becomes the default heated-tobacco alternative in BAT’s major markets.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
IFRS annual operating income recovered to £9.997 billion in FY2025, close to the FY2021-FY2022 level of about £10.2-£10.5 billion.
Open source ↗The post-impairment brand and intangible asset base must be stable; if cigarette cash-flow forecasts keep being revised down, accounting value erosion will overwhelm annual earnings.HoldingMateriality: Medium
IFRS annual net income recovered to £7.765 billion in FY2025 after a £14.189 billion loss in FY2023. A cash-cow stock can survive low growth, but repeated impairment resets signal the cash flows were overestimated and reduce owner value.
Watch: An FDA menthol cigarette ban or nicotine-cap rule undermines cash-flow expectations for Reynolds/Newport/Camel-related assets.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
IFRS annual net income recovered to £7.765 billion in FY2025 after a £14.189 billion loss in FY2023.
Open source ↗The value case depends on cash collection, not just reported profit: working-capital, tax, litigation and duty timing must not permanently absorb the cash generated by tobacco sales.HoldingMateriality: Medium
IFRS annual operating cash flow was consistently high from FY2021-FY2024: £9.717 billion, £10.394 billion, £10.714 billion and £10.125 billion. If cash conversion normalizes, BTI can fund deleveraging and owner returns; if it does not, reported earnings overstate value creation.
Watch: A large adverse tobacco litigation settlement or tax/excise dispute requires material cash payments.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
IFRS annual operating cash flow was consistently high from FY2021-FY2024: £9.717 billion, £10.394 billion, £10.714 billion and £10.125 billion.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
BAT’s regulated premium cigarette franchises retain enough pricing power to absorb secular volume decline rather than letting smoking attrition translate directly into revenue erosion. If this holds, cigarettes remain the cash engine funding the transition; if it breaks, the whole investment becomes an unmanaged runoff.
BAT must keep nicotine users inside its own ecosystem as smokers migrate to vapor, heated tobacco and oral nicotine, rather than letting the category shift transfer economics to competitors or illicit disposable products. This determines whether reduced-risk products extend BAT’s franchise or cannibalize its cigarette profits while rivals capture the future pool of nicotine profit.
The post-impairment brand and intangible asset base must be stable; if cigarette cash-flow forecasts keep being revised down, accounting value erosion will overwhelm annual earnings. A cash-cow stock can survive low growth, but repeated impairment resets signal the cash flows were overestimated and reduce owner value.
The value case depends on cash collection, not just reported profit: working-capital, tax, litigation and duty timing must not permanently absorb the cash generated by tobacco sales. If cash conversion normalizes, BTI can fund deleveraging and owner returns; if it does not, reported earnings overstate value creation.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its regulated cigarette cash cow can keep pricing ahead of volume decline while BAT-owned nicotine alternatives prevent customers from migrating to rivals or illicit products.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for British American Tobacco p.l.c.
Where the evidence on British American Tobacco p.l.c. stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 25, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
BAT’s regulated premium cigarette franchises retain enough pricing power to absorb secular volume decline rather than letting smoking attrition translate directly into revenue erosion.
BAT must keep nicotine users inside its own ecosystem as smokers migrate to vapor, heated tobacco and oral nicotine, rather than letting the category shift transfer economics to competitors or illicit disposable products.
The post-impairment brand and intangible asset base must be stable; if cigarette cash-flow forecasts keep being revised down, accounting value erosion will overwhelm annual earnings.
The value case depends on cash collection, not just reported profit: working-capital, tax, litigation and duty timing must not permanently absorb the cash generated by tobacco sales.
Bear case: what would count against it
A rapid consumer trade-down from premium cigarette brands to illicit or low-price tobacco that forces BAT to stop taking price.
Philip Morris International’s IQOS becomes the default heated-tobacco alternative in BAT’s major markets.
An FDA menthol cigarette ban or nicotine-cap rule undermines cash-flow expectations for Reynolds/Newport/Camel-related assets.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · British American Tobacco p.l.c.
No break has crossed British American Tobacco p.l.c.’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedREPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. filed an SEC report on 2026-10-23: REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedREPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. filed an SEC report on 2026-10-20: REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedREPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. filed an SEC report on 2026-10-15: REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A rapid consumer trade-down from premium cigarette brands to illicit or low-price tobacco that forces BAT to stop taking price.
- Philip Morris International’s IQOS becomes the default heated-tobacco alternative in BAT’s major markets.
- An FDA menthol cigarette ban or nicotine-cap rule undermines cash-flow expectations for Reynolds/Newport/Camel-related assets.
- A large adverse tobacco litigation settlement or tax/excise dispute requires material cash payments.
BTI news
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Financial statements
BTI income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
BTI: quick answers
- What is BTI's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 5.6M BTI shares were sold short, up 51.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.0 day to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BTI short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded BTI?
- 44 trades in BTI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed BTI trade
- Which well-known investors own BTI?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported BTI shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%; Maverick Capital, 0.0%. Fund portfolios
BTI in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported BTI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.13% | $31.3M | −33.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 0.02% | $2.3M | +4.7% | Q2 2026 |