BlackRock

BLKNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$1,223.81
−$2.50 (−0.20%)Today 1M +13.30%

Updated Nov 12, 2:42 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$1,226.31
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$1,221.28–$1,236.49
Regular-session low and high so far today.
182.0K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 2:42 PM ET.
Jan 13 projected
Projected for 2027-01-13 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$917.39–$1,242.12
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own BLK if BlackRock turns unrivaled scale in AUM, a dominant iShares ETF franchise and the Aladdin technology platform into recurring fee revenue and high cash returns by cross-selling higher‑margin private markets and subscription services (accelerated by.

BLK price history

Latest price$1223.81Today−$2.50 (-0.20%)
BLK +12.83%S&P 500 -2.65%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • BlackRock's AUM scale and diversified product/distribution mix convert market flows into reliably growing fee revenue and cash; growth in revenue will continue so long as core ETF/index flows and rising private markets allocations persist.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Business disclosure of $14.0 trillion AUM at December 31, 2025 (Item 1 Business) supporting scale and distribution. If true, revenue and operating cash flow will compound and support buybacks/dividends and justify the premium multiple; if false, growth will not translate into shareholder returns and the multiple will compress.

    Watch: Sustained fee compression or loss of ETF market share to lower‑cost competitors (e.g., Vanguard) that reduces net flows into iShares.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Business disclosure of $14.0 trillion AUM at December 31, 2025 (Item 1 Business) supporting scale and distribution.

    Open source ↗
  • The 2025 acquisitions (HPS, Preqin) will shift BlackRock's product mix toward private credit and private markets and higher‑value data/subscription offerings, increasing fee‑paying AUM and supporting higher long‑term operating income per dollar of AUM if integrations succeed.HoldingMateriality: High

    Business and MD&A detail the HPS transaction adding $165 billion of client AUM and $118 billion of fee-paying AUM and the Preqin purchase to combine private markets data with Aladdin (Item 1 Business. Successful integration raises average fees and operating income; failure or slower conversion dilutes returns and pressures margins.

    Watch: Integration friction: failure to retain key HPS/Preqin investment teams or clients leading to slower cross‑selling.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Business and MD&A detail the HPS transaction adding $165 billion of client AUM and $118 billion of fee-paying AUM and.

    Open source ↗
  • Aladdin and related technology/data services create switching costs and annuity‑like, higher‑margin subscription revenue that increases client stickiness and supports margin resilience.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Business text highlights Aladdin, Aladdin Wealth, eFront and Preqin as strategic technology and data offerings that the company is commercializing (Item 1 Business). If Aladdin subscriptions scale, BlackRock gains non‑AUM‑dependent earnings and better operating cash conversion; if clients build or buy alternatives, recurring margins will be lower and more cyclical.

    Watch: Large clients building internal portfolio/risk systems or contracting to competing vendors (reducing renewals/new sales).

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Business text highlights Aladdin, Aladdin Wealth, eFront and Preqin as strategic technology and data offerings that the company is commercializing.

    Open source ↗
  • If BlackRock maintains disciplined capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) and avoids net dilution from Subco unit exchanges, EPS will compound faster than revenue growth and support the premium multiple.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    EPS history shows variability (33.97 in 2022, 36.51 in 2023, 42.01 in 2024, 35.31 in 2025), indicating buybacks/capital allocation materially affect EPS (eps_diluted). Sustained buybacks amplify per‑share returns; dilution or suspended repurchases would reduce EPS growth and justify a lower valuation.

    Watch: Conversion of Subco Units into common stock (exchangeable units) increasing share count and offsetting buybacks.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    EPS history shows variability (33.97 in 2022, 36.51 in 2023, 42.01 in 2024, 35.31 in 2025), indicating buybacks/capital allocation materially.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

BlackRock's AUM scale and diversified product/distribution mix convert market flows into reliably growing fee revenue and cash; growth in revenue will continue so long as core ETF/index flows and rising private markets allocations persist. If true, revenue and operating cash flow will compound and support buybacks/dividends and justify the premium multiple; if false, growth will not translate into shareholder returns and the multiple will compress.

The 2025 acquisitions (HPS, Preqin) will shift BlackRock's product mix toward private credit and private markets and higher‑value data/subscription offerings, increasing fee‑paying AUM and supporting higher long‑term operating income per dollar of AUM if integrations succeed. Successful integration raises average fees and operating income; failure or slower conversion dilutes returns and pressures margins.

Aladdin and related technology/data services create switching costs and annuity‑like, higher‑margin subscription revenue that increases client stickiness and supports margin resilience. If Aladdin subscriptions scale, BlackRock gains non‑AUM‑dependent earnings and better operating cash conversion; if clients build or buy alternatives, recurring margins will be lower and more cyclical.

If BlackRock maintains disciplined capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) and avoids net dilution from Subco unit exchanges, EPS will compound faster than revenue growth and support the premium multiple. Sustained buybacks amplify per‑share returns; dilution or suspended repurchases would reduce EPS growth and justify a lower valuation.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

BlackRock turns unrivaled scale in AUM, a dominant iShares ETF franchise and the Aladdin technology platform into recurring fee revenue and high cash returns by cross-selling higher‑margin private markets and subscription services (accelerated by.

Evidence assessed Nov 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for BlackRock

Where the evidence on BlackRock stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • BlackRock's AUM scale and diversified product/distribution mix convert market flows into reliably growing fee revenue and cash; growth in revenue will continue so long as core ETF/index flows and rising private markets allocations persist.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The 2025 acquisitions (HPS, Preqin) will shift BlackRock's product mix toward private credit and private markets and higher‑value data/subscription offerings, increasing fee‑paying AUM and supporting higher long‑term operating income per dollar of AUM if integrations succeed.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Aladdin and related technology/data services create switching costs and annuity‑like, higher‑margin subscription revenue that increases client stickiness and supports margin resilience.

    sec.gov ↗

  • If BlackRock maintains disciplined capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) and avoids net dilution from Subco unit exchanges, EPS will compound faster than revenue growth and support the premium multiple.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Sustained fee compression or loss of ETF market share to lower‑cost competitors (e.g., Vanguard) that reduces net flows into iShares.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Integration friction: failure to retain key HPS/Preqin investment teams or clients leading to slower cross‑selling.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Large clients building internal portfolio/risk systems or contracting to competing vendors (reducing renewals/new sales).

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · BlackRock

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed BlackRock’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    BlackRock filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-14: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    BlackRock filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-15: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Other material event.

    BlackRock filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-30: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Sustained fee compression or loss of ETF market share to lower‑cost competitors (e.g., Vanguard) that reduces net flows into iShares.
  • Integration friction: failure to retain key HPS/Preqin investment teams or clients leading to slower cross‑selling.
  • Large clients building internal portfolio/risk systems or contracting to competing vendors (reducing renewals/new sales).
  • Conversion of Subco Units into common stock (exchangeable units) increasing share count and offsetting buybacks.

BLK news

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Financial statements

BLK income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

BLK: quick answers

When does BlackRock (BLK) report earnings next?
BlackRock's next results are projected for January 13, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 14, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is BLK's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 2.1M BLK shares were sold short, 1.38% of its shares outstanding, down 0.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BLK short interest history
Have members of Congress traded BLK?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in BLK by 2 filers: 1 purchase and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed BLK trade
Which well-known investors own BLK?
3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported BLK shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: ValueAct, 9.9%; Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 1.8%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

BLK in well-known investors’ portfolios

3 of 37 funds reported BLK shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
ValueAct9.9%$559M+6.5%Q2 2026
Tom GaynerMarkel Group1.8%$233MNo changeQ3 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.02%$4.5MNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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