Black Hills

BKHNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$86.96
−$0.08 (−0.09%)Today 1M +14.41%
After hours$86.960.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$87.04
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$85.83–$87.15
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.3M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$67.25–$87.42
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own BKH if its regulated utility asset growth is converted into allowed returns and per-share earnings rather than being absorbed by rate lag, financing costs, or dilution.

BKH price history

Latest price$86.96Today−$0.08 (-0.09%)
BKH +14.70%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Constructive utility regulation remains the core moat: if regulators continue allowing prudent infrastructure investment into rates, Black Hills can turn essential-service capital spending into higher operating earnings.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating_income increased to $537.5 million in FY2025 from $503.1 million in FY2024 and $472.7 million in FY2023. If this holds, asset growth has economic value; if it breaks, capital spending becomes a burden rather than a compounding engine.

    Watch: State utility commissions issue adverse rate orders, lower allowed returns, or disallow recovery of major capital projects.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating_income increased to $537.5 million in FY2025 from $503.1 million in FY2024 and $472.7 million in FY2023.

    Open source ↗
  • The growth engine depends on Black Hills expanding utility assets that regulators recognize as useful and prudent, not on simple balance-sheet expansion.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Total assets were $10.87 billion at FY2025 year-end, up from $10.02 billion at FY2024 year-end. Earning asset growth supports future rate recovery; uneconomic or unrecovered assets pressure returns and customer bills.

    Watch: Regulators exclude completed projects from rate base or materially delay recovery after assets are placed in service.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Total assets were $10.87 billion at FY2025 year-end, up from $10.02 billion at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Black Hills’ investment plan requires stable customer collections and cost recovery to generate enough operating cash flow to fund capital spending without over-reliance on external financing.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating_cash_flow was $673.4 million in FY2025, still substantial relative to GAAP annual net_income of $291.6 million. Strong cash conversion lowers financing risk; weak cash flow forces more debt or equity and can dilute per-share value.

    Watch: Fuel, purchased-power, or gas-cost recovery mechanisms lag actual costs and create working-capital drains.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating_cash_flow was $673.4 million in FY2025, still substantial relative to GAAP annual net_income of $291.6 million.

    Open source ↗
  • Because the utility model is capital intensive, Black Hills must preserve balance-sheet capacity and low-cost capital access so that required investment does not erode the allowed-return spread.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Liabilities were $6.96 billion at FY2025 year-end versus $10.87 billion of assets, indicating the business is meaningfully debt-funded but not wholly creditor-financed. A healthy balance sheet lets the company keep investing through cycles; a stressed one shifts value from shareholders to lenders or forces equity issuance.

    Watch: A credit-rating downgrade or materially higher debt spreads raise the cost of funding future utility investment.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Liabilities were $6.96 billion at FY2025 year-end versus $10.87 billion of assets, indicating the business is meaningfully debt-funded but not.

    Open source ↗
  • The shareholder case requires regulatory recovery and financing discipline to convert utility growth into per-share earnings, not just higher net income or a larger asset base.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual eps_diluted improved slightly to $3.98 in FY2025 from $3.91 in FY2024. Owners only benefit if the capital program compounds value per share; otherwise the business can grow while the stock stagnates.

    Watch: Equity issuance at unattractive prices funds the capital plan and offsets net income growth on a per-share basis.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual eps_diluted improved slightly to $3.98 in FY2025 from $3.91 in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Constructive utility regulation remains the core moat: if regulators continue allowing prudent infrastructure investment into rates, Black Hills can turn essential-service capital spending into higher operating earnings. If this holds, asset growth has economic value; if it breaks, capital spending becomes a burden rather than a compounding engine.

The growth engine depends on Black Hills expanding utility assets that regulators recognize as useful and prudent, not on simple balance-sheet expansion. Earning asset growth supports future rate recovery; uneconomic or unrecovered assets pressure returns and customer bills.

Black Hills’ investment plan requires stable customer collections and cost recovery to generate enough operating cash flow to fund capital spending without over-reliance on external financing. Strong cash conversion lowers financing risk; weak cash flow forces more debt or equity and can dilute per-share value.

Because the utility model is capital intensive, Black Hills must preserve balance-sheet capacity and low-cost capital access so that required investment does not erode the allowed-return spread. A healthy balance sheet lets the company keep investing through cycles; a stressed one shifts value from shareholders to lenders or forces equity issuance.

The shareholder case requires regulatory recovery and financing discipline to convert utility growth into per-share earnings, not just higher net income or a larger asset base. Owners only benefit if the capital program compounds value per share; otherwise the business can grow while the stock stagnates.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its regulated utility asset growth is converted into allowed returns and per-share earnings rather than being absorbed by rate lag, financing costs, or dilution.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Black Hills

Where the evidence on Black Hills stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Constructive utility regulation remains the core moat: if regulators continue allowing prudent infrastructure investment into rates, Black Hills can turn essential-service capital spending into higher operating earnings.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The growth engine depends on Black Hills expanding utility assets that regulators recognize as useful and prudent, not on simple balance-sheet expansion.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Black Hills’ investment plan requires stable customer collections and cost recovery to generate enough operating cash flow to fund capital spending without over-reliance on external financing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Because the utility model is capital intensive, Black Hills must preserve balance-sheet capacity and low-cost capital access so that required investment does not erode the allowed-return spread.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The shareholder case requires regulatory recovery and financing discipline to convert utility growth into per-share earnings, not just higher net income or a larger asset base.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • State utility commissions issue adverse rate orders, lower allowed returns, or disallow recovery of major capital projects.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Regulators exclude completed projects from rate base or materially delay recovery after assets are placed in service.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Fuel, purchased-power, or gas-cost recovery mechanisms lag actual costs and create working-capital drains.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Black Hills

Loading the break-condition record for Black Hills.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Black Hills filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-06: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Black Hills filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-17: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Black Hills filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • State utility commissions issue adverse rate orders, lower allowed returns, or disallow recovery of major capital projects.
  • Regulators exclude completed projects from rate base or materially delay recovery after assets are placed in service.
  • Fuel, purchased-power, or gas-cost recovery mechanisms lag actual costs and create working-capital drains.
  • A credit-rating downgrade or materially higher debt spreads raise the cost of funding future utility investment.
  • Equity issuance at unattractive prices funds the capital plan and offsets net income growth on a per-share basis.

BKH news

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Financial statements

BKH income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

BKH: quick answers

Have members of Congress traded BKH?
2 trades in BKH have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed BKH trade
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