BJ's Restaurants

BJRINASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$55.59
−$2.12 (−3.67%)Today 1M −7.15%

Updated Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

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Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
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Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
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Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$57.71
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$55.26–$57.15
Regular-session low and high so far today.
623.3K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 24 projected
Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$33.36–$74.60
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own BJRI if its differentiated full-service value proposition keeps guests coming while management proves the recent profit recovery is structural, not just a temporary easing of restaurant cost pressure.

BJRI price history

LATEST PRICE$55.59TODAY−$2.12 (-3.67%)
BJRI -3.96%S&P 500 -3.68%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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INVESTMENT THESIS

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • BJ’s broad-menu, full-service value proposition continues to give guests a reason to choose it over other casual-dining, quick-service, delivery, and at-home meal alternatives.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.284 billion in FY2023 to $1.399 billion in FY2026. If guest relevance holds, BJ’s can defend its sales base; if the value proposition weakens, the fixed-cost restaurant model quickly loses operating leverage.

    Watch: Consumers trade down from full-service restaurants to quick-service, grocery, or at-home meals as price sensitivity rises.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $1.284 billion in FY2023 to $1.399 billion in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • Management’s operating discipline converts modest sales growth into materially higher restaurant profitability rather than letting labor, food, and occupancy inflation consume the benefit.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating income improved from a loss of $5.5 million in FY2023 to income of $46.3 million in FY2026. This is the main path from a stable restaurant brand to shareholder value; without margin conversion, revenue growth alone is low-quality.

    Watch: Wage inflation, especially in large restaurant labor markets such as California, accelerates faster than menu pricing can offset.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income improved from a loss of $5.5 million in FY2023 to income of $46.3 million in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • BJ’s generates enough operating cash flow from its existing restaurant base to fund the brand’s maintenance, remodel, and selective growth needs without weakening the balance sheet.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $51.1 million in FY2023 to $110.5 million in FY2026. If cash generation is durable, owners can benefit from reinvestment and debt reduction; if capex and obligations absorb cash, accounting earnings overstate value creation.

    Watch: Required restaurant remodels, kitchen investments, or new-unit costs consume operating cash before shareholders benefit.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $51.1 million in FY2023 to $110.5 million in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • BJ’s ability to deliver its stated best-in-class service depends on attracting, training, and retaining enough restaurant team members to protect the guest experience.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    The company employed approximately 22,000 team members at 219 restaurants as of December 30, 2025. Labor is not only a cost line for BJ’s; it is part of the brand promise, so deterioration can hurt both margins and traffic.

    Watch: Restaurant labor shortages increase turnover or force BJ’s to operate with inadequate staffing.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company employed approximately 22,000 team members at 219 restaurants as of December 30, 2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The restaurant base creates more equity value if operating improvement continues to reduce balance-sheet pressure rather than requiring new liabilities to sustain the concept.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Total liabilities declined from $700.4 million at FY2023 year-end to $626.5 million at Q1 FY2027. A restaurant turnaround is more valuable when cash flow strengthens the balance sheet; if leverage or lease obligations rise again, the equity becomes more fragile.

    Watch: Management funds new restaurants, remodels, or buybacks with incremental debt or lease obligations before returns are proven.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Total liabilities declined from $700.4 million at FY2023 year-end to $626.5 million at Q1 FY2027.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

BJ’s broad-menu, full-service value proposition continues to give guests a reason to choose it over other casual-dining, quick-service, delivery, and at-home meal alternatives. If guest relevance holds, BJ’s can defend its sales base; if the value proposition weakens, the fixed-cost restaurant model quickly loses operating leverage.

Management’s operating discipline converts modest sales growth into materially higher restaurant profitability rather than letting labor, food, and occupancy inflation consume the benefit. This is the main path from a stable restaurant brand to shareholder value; without margin conversion, revenue growth alone is low-quality.

BJ’s generates enough operating cash flow from its existing restaurant base to fund the brand’s maintenance, remodel, and selective growth needs without weakening the balance sheet. If cash generation is durable, owners can benefit from reinvestment and debt reduction; if capex and obligations absorb cash, accounting earnings overstate value creation.

BJ’s ability to deliver its stated best-in-class service depends on attracting, training, and retaining enough restaurant team members to protect the guest experience. Labor is not only a cost line for BJ’s; it is part of the brand promise, so deterioration can hurt both margins and traffic.

The restaurant base creates more equity value if operating improvement continues to reduce balance-sheet pressure rather than requiring new liabilities to sustain the concept. A restaurant turnaround is more valuable when cash flow strengthens the balance sheet; if leverage or lease obligations rise again, the equity becomes more fragile.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its differentiated full-service value proposition keeps guests coming while management proves the recent profit recovery is structural, not just a temporary easing of restaurant cost pressure.

Evidence assessed Oct 22, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

BULL CASE / BEAR CASE

Bull case and bear case for BJS RESTAURANTS

Where the evidence on BJS RESTAURANTS stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 22, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • BJ’s broad-menu, full-service value proposition continues to give guests a reason to choose it over other casual-dining, quick-service, delivery, and at-home meal alternatives.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management’s operating discipline converts modest sales growth into materially higher restaurant profitability rather than letting labor, food, and occupancy inflation consume the benefit.

    sec.gov ↗

  • BJ’s generates enough operating cash flow from its existing restaurant base to fund the brand’s maintenance, remodel, and selective growth needs without weakening the balance sheet.

    sec.gov ↗

  • BJ’s ability to deliver its stated best-in-class service depends on attracting, training, and retaining enough restaurant team members to protect the guest experience.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The restaurant base creates more equity value if operating improvement continues to reduce balance-sheet pressure rather than requiring new liabilities to sustain the concept.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Consumers trade down from full-service restaurants to quick-service, grocery, or at-home meals as price sensitivity rises.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Wage inflation, especially in large restaurant labor markets such as California, accelerates faster than menu pricing can offset.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Required restaurant remodels, kitchen investments, or new-unit costs consume operating cash before shareholders benefit.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in BJS RESTAURANTS’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on BJS RESTAURANTS, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for BJS RESTAURANTS.

peers+18%-17%+1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical +1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+18% to -17%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. MIXED
    Director or principal officer change.

    BJs RESTAURANTS filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-09: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. MIXED
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    BJs RESTAURANTS filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. MIXED
    Director or principal officer change.

    BJs RESTAURANTS filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-23: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

RISKS / FALSIFIERS

What could break the thesis

  • Consumers trade down from full-service restaurants to quick-service, grocery, or at-home meals as price sensitivity rises.
  • Wage inflation, especially in large restaurant labor markets such as California, accelerates faster than menu pricing can offset.
  • Required restaurant remodels, kitchen investments, or new-unit costs consume operating cash before shareholders benefit.
  • Restaurant labor shortages increase turnover or force BJ’s to operate with inadequate staffing.
  • Management funds new restaurants, remodels, or buybacks with incremental debt or lease obligations before returns are proven.

BJRI news

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

BJRI income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

BJRI: quick answers

When does BJS RESTAURANTS (BJRI) report earnings next?
BJS RESTAURANTS's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is BJRI's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 2.7M BJRI shares were sold short, up 24.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BJRI short interest history
Have members of Congress traded BJRI?
1 trade in BJRI has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed BJRI trade
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