Saul Centers
BFSNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $28.80 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $28.28–$28.78 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 107.4K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 26 projected Projected for 2027-02-26 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $28.13–$38.42 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own BFS if Saul Centers is a small, regionally-focused REIT that converts a growing portfolio of owned retail properties into predictable rental cash flow by operating properties in-house and financing growth with debt — the stock is.
BFS price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Saul's operating cash flow will continue to be the primary, stable source of distributable cash (covering dividends and capex) because rental revenue is recurring and property operations are run in-house.HoldingMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow: $117,727,000 (FY2023), $121,224,000 (FY2024), $99,796,000 (FY2025) — material but still substantial cash generation historically. If operating cash flow holds, shareholders get predictable distributions and the company can fund selective acquisitions; if it falls, dividends and growth are at risk and asset sales or equity issuance may be required.
Watch: large, sustained tenant departures or anchor-tenant bankruptcies that create prolonged vacancy and rent loss.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow: $117,727,000 (FY2023), $121,224,000 (FY2024), $99,796,000 (FY2025) — material but still substantial cash generation historically.
Open source ↗Volatility in Saul's GAAP net income is primarily driven by non-cash valuation and financing items rather than core operating performance, so operating income and cash flow are better gauges of business health.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income has been relatively large and stable: $189,402,000 (FY2023), $203,765,000 (FY2024), $195,319,000 (FY2025). If GAAP swings are valuation-driven, short-term EPS moves may mislead investors; if instead operating income falls, that signals a true deterioration in the business.
Watch: accelerating same-store rent declines or sustained higher vacancy that cause operating_income to fall materially.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income has been relatively large and stable: $189,402,000 (FY2023), $203,765,000 (FY2024), $195,319,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗Saul can grow revenue and cashflow by increasing its asset base financed with debt because assets have grown 2022–2025 and the company has used liabilities to acquire/finance properties.HoldingMateriality: Medium
assets: $1,833,302,000 (2022) → $2,126,404,000 (2024) → $2,162,678,000 (2025), showing an expanding asset base. If the company can prudently use leverage to buy accretive properties, per-share NAV and cashflow can compound; if debt access tightens or yields fall, growth will stall and leverage will amplify losses.
Watch: a severe rise in market cap rates (driven by higher long-term rates) that forces acquisitions to be accretive only at much higher yields or creates NAV erosion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
assets: $1,833,302,000 (2022) → $2,126,404,000 (2024) → $2,162,678,000 (2025), showing an expanding asset base.
Open source ↗Saul's integrated, in‑house property-management capability helps preserve high operating margins and convert revenue into operating income.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
profile note: company "provides each property with a fully integrated property management capability" (staffed at headquarters and properties). If in-house operations keep property-level costs controlled, operating margins stay high and cashflow remains robust; if that advantage is lost or costs rise, margins compress and cash available for distributions falls.
Watch: sharp inflation in property operating costs or wage costs that cannot be passed through to tenants.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
profile note: company "provides each property with a fully integrated property management capability" (staffed at headquarters and properties).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Saul's operating cash flow will continue to be the primary, stable source of distributable cash (covering dividends and capex) because rental revenue is recurring and property operations are run in-house. If operating cash flow holds, shareholders get predictable distributions and the company can fund selective acquisitions; if it falls, dividends and growth are at risk and asset sales or equity issuance may be required.
Volatility in Saul's GAAP net income is primarily driven by non-cash valuation and financing items rather than core operating performance, so operating income and cash flow are better gauges of business health. If GAAP swings are valuation-driven, short-term EPS moves may mislead investors; if instead operating income falls, that signals a true deterioration in the business.
Saul can grow revenue and cashflow by increasing its asset base financed with debt because assets have grown 2022–2025 and the company has used liabilities to acquire/finance properties. If the company can prudently use leverage to buy accretive properties, per-share NAV and cashflow can compound; if debt access tightens or yields fall, growth will stall and leverage will amplify losses.
Saul's integrated, in‑house property-management capability helps preserve high operating margins and convert revenue into operating income. If in-house operations keep property-level costs controlled, operating margins stay high and cashflow remains robust; if that advantage is lost or costs rise, margins compress and cash available for distributions falls.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Saul Centers is a small, regionally-focused REIT that converts a growing portfolio of owned retail properties into predictable rental cash flow by operating properties in-house and financing growth with debt — the stock is.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Saul Centers
Where the evidence on Saul Centers stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Saul's operating cash flow will continue to be the primary, stable source of distributable cash (covering dividends and capex) because rental revenue is recurring and property operations are run in-house.
Volatility in Saul's GAAP net income is primarily driven by non-cash valuation and financing items rather than core operating performance, so operating income and cash flow are better gauges of business health.
Saul can grow revenue and cashflow by increasing its asset base financed with debt because assets have grown 2022–2025 and the company has used liabilities to acquire/finance properties.
Saul's integrated, in‑house property-management capability helps preserve high operating margins and convert revenue into operating income.
Bear case: what would count against it
large, sustained tenant departures or anchor-tenant bankruptcies that create prolonged vacancy and rent loss.
accelerating same-store rent declines or sustained higher vacancy that cause operating_income to fall materially.
a severe rise in market cap rates (driven by higher long-term rates) that forces acquisitions to be accretive only at much higher yields or creates NAV erosion.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Saul Centers’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Saul Centers, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Saul Centers.
- Negative free cash flow
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Saul Centers filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Saul Centers filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-11: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Saul Centers filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-07: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- large, sustained tenant departures or anchor-tenant bankruptcies that create prolonged vacancy and rent loss.
- accelerating same-store rent declines or sustained higher vacancy that cause operating_income to fall materially.
- a severe rise in market cap rates (driven by higher long-term rates) that forces acquisitions to be accretive only at much higher yields or creates NAV erosion.
- sharp inflation in property operating costs or wage costs that cannot be passed through to tenants.
BFS news
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Financial statements
BFS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
BFS: quick answers
- When does Saul Centers (BFS) report earnings next?
- Saul Centers's next results are projected for February 26, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is BFS's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 533,340 BFS shares were sold short, 2.15% of its shares outstanding, down 8.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BFS short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded BFS?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in BFS by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed BFS trade
