Brown-Forman

BF-BNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$30.10
−$0.72 (−2.34%)Today 1M +14.06%
After hours$29.73−1.23%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$30.82
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$29.71–$30.43
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.6M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Dec 3 projected
Projected for 2026-12-03 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$22.61–$31.92
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own BF-B if Brown-Forman’s recognized beverage-alcohol brands prove the recent sales decline is cyclical rather than a permanent loss of consumer pull and pricing power.

BF-B price history

Latest price$30.10Today−$0.72 (-2.34%)
BF-B +12.84%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Recognized beverage-alcohol brands keep enough consumer pull that Brown-Forman can defend shelf space and pass price/mix without permanently funding demand through discounts.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    FY2026 GAAP annual gross_profit was $2.378 billion, up from $2.343 billion in FY2025 despite lower FY2026 revenue. If this holds, gross margin can remain high and revenue recovery creates attractive incremental profit; if it breaks, growth becomes promotion-dependent and lower quality.

    Watch: Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, or other large spirits competitors intensify promotions in Brown-Forman’s key categories and force price matching.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2026 GAAP annual gross_profit was $2.378 billion, up from $2.343 billion in FY2025 despite lower FY2026 revenue.

    Open source ↗
  • The sales downturn is mainly cyclical channel and consumer weakness rather than structural brand relevance loss, so distributor and retail demand should stabilize before brand investment has to be reduced.HoldingMateriality: High

    FY2026 GAAP annual revenue decline moderated to $3.928 billion from $3.975 billion in FY2025, a smaller drop than the FY2025 decline from $4.178 billion in FY2024. If demand stabilizes, Brown-Forman can compound from a depressed base; if demand is structurally impaired, the historical brand moat is worth less.

    Watch: The broader spirits category continues losing share to beer, ready-to-drink products, cannabis, or non-alcohol beverages.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2026 GAAP annual revenue decline moderated to $3.928 billion from $3.975 billion in FY2025, a smaller drop than the FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Brown-Forman’s scale in producing and marketing beverage alcohol should let brand demand flow through to profit, but only if the company does not need a sustained step-up in promotion or overhead to defend volumes.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    FY2026 GAAP annual operating_income remained $1.001 billion on $3.928 billion of revenue. Operating leverage determines whether a revenue recovery produces strong EPS recovery or merely offsets higher selling and marketing costs.

    Watch: A promotional arms race with large spirits competitors forces higher advertising, discounting, or distributor incentives.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2026 GAAP annual operating_income remained $1.001 billion on $3.928 billion of revenue.

    Open source ↗
  • The cash-generative model and improving liability position give Brown-Forman time to keep investing behind its brands through a spirits downcycle rather than cutting support at the wrong point.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2026 GAAP annual operating_cash_flow was $1.000 billion, above FY2026 GAAP net_income of $715 million. Cash durability lets owners wait for demand recovery; if cash conversion weakens, the company may have to choose between brand investment, dividends, balance-sheet repair, or acquisitions.

    Watch: Working capital reverses because aged inventory, distributor receivables, or channel support consumes cash.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2026 GAAP annual operating_cash_flow was $1.000 billion, above FY2026 GAAP net_income of $715 million.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Recognized beverage-alcohol brands keep enough consumer pull that Brown-Forman can defend shelf space and pass price/mix without permanently funding demand through discounts. If this holds, gross margin can remain high and revenue recovery creates attractive incremental profit; if it breaks, growth becomes promotion-dependent and lower quality.

The sales downturn is mainly cyclical channel and consumer weakness rather than structural brand relevance loss, so distributor and retail demand should stabilize before brand investment has to be reduced. If demand stabilizes, Brown-Forman can compound from a depressed base; if demand is structurally impaired, the historical brand moat is worth less.

Brown-Forman’s scale in producing and marketing beverage alcohol should let brand demand flow through to profit, but only if the company does not need a sustained step-up in promotion or overhead to defend volumes. Operating leverage determines whether a revenue recovery produces strong EPS recovery or merely offsets higher selling and marketing costs.

The cash-generative model and improving liability position give Brown-Forman time to keep investing behind its brands through a spirits downcycle rather than cutting support at the wrong point. Cash durability lets owners wait for demand recovery; if cash conversion weakens, the company may have to choose between brand investment, dividends, balance-sheet repair, or acquisitions.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Brown-Forman’s recognized beverage-alcohol brands prove the recent sales decline is cyclical rather than a permanent loss of consumer pull and pricing power.

Evidence assessed Nov 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Brown Forman

Where the evidence on Brown Forman stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Recognized beverage-alcohol brands keep enough consumer pull that Brown-Forman can defend shelf space and pass price/mix without permanently funding demand through discounts.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The sales downturn is mainly cyclical channel and consumer weakness rather than structural brand relevance loss, so distributor and retail demand should stabilize before brand investment has to be reduced.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Brown-Forman’s scale in producing and marketing beverage alcohol should let brand demand flow through to profit, but only if the company does not need a sustained step-up in promotion or overhead to defend volumes.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The cash-generative model and improving liability position give Brown-Forman time to keep investing behind its brands through a spirits downcycle rather than cutting support at the wrong point.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, or other large spirits competitors intensify promotions in Brown-Forman’s key categories and force price matching.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The broader spirits category continues losing share to beer, ready-to-drink products, cannabis, or non-alcohol beverages.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A promotional arms race with large spirits competitors forces higher advertising, discounting, or distributor incentives.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Brown Forman

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

OptimistFi is watching Brown Forman. No break-condition checks are on record yet — they accumulate as new filings are checked.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Brown Forman filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-21: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Brown Forman filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-02: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Brown Forman filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-23: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, or other large spirits competitors intensify promotions in Brown-Forman’s key categories and force price matching.
  • The broader spirits category continues losing share to beer, ready-to-drink products, cannabis, or non-alcohol beverages.
  • A promotional arms race with large spirits competitors forces higher advertising, discounting, or distributor incentives.
  • Working capital reverses because aged inventory, distributor receivables, or channel support consumes cash.

BF-B news

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Financial statements

BF-B income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

BF-B: quick answers

When does Brown Forman (BF-B) report earnings next?
Brown Forman's next results are projected for December 3, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on September 2, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is BF-B's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 30.1M BF-B shares were sold short, down 8.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 13 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BF-B short interest history
Have members of Congress traded BF-B?
14 trades in BF-B have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed BF-B trade
Which well-known investors own BF-B?
3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported BF-B shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.1%; Maverick Capital, 0.0%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

BF-B in well-known investors’ portfolios

3 of 37 funds reported BF-B shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Tom GaynerMarkel Group0.10%$12.4MNo changeQ3 2026
Maverick Capital0.03%$3.0MNewQ2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$2.4M+391.9%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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