Blue Dolphin Energy Company
BDCOOTC Markets OTCQXUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $7.47 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $6.75–$7.31 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 99.9K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 3:58 PM ET.
- Nov 13 projected Projected for 2026-11-13 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $1.01–$24.89 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own BDCO if BDCO is a highly cyclical Gulf Coast downstream turnaround whose equity value depends on restoring refining-spread cash generation before thin liquidity and liabilities absorb the upside.
BDCO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
BDCO’s Gulf Coast downstream assets must capture enough feedstock-to-product spread to cover fixed costs; if regional refining economics normalize against small operators, revenue volume will not create value.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross_profit was $46.071 million in FY2022 and $44.678 million in FY2023, showing the assets can generate substantial spread in favorable conditions. If this holds, the asset base has real earnings power; if it breaks, sales become low-quality throughput with little equity value.
Watch: Gulf Coast crack spreads compress as regional refining capacity, imports, or product inventories pressure margins.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross_profit was $46.071 million in FY2022 and $44.678 million in FY2023, showing the assets can generate substantial spread.
Open source ↗The small refining asset base must run reliably enough for fixed-cost leverage to work; outages, maintenance slippage, or regulatory restrictions would turn the same assets from option value into losses.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating_income was $39.083 million in FY2022 and $36.388 million in FY2023, showing strong upside when operations and market conditions align. Operational reliability determines whether favorable market conditions actually reach shareholders as operating income.
Watch: Unplanned refinery downtime or extended maintenance prevents BDCO from processing during favorable margin windows.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating_income was $39.083 million in FY2022 and $36.388 million in FY2023, showing strong upside when operations and market.
Open source ↗Liquidity is a strategic constraint, not just a balance-sheet detail: BDCO needs enough cash and credit to buy feedstock and maintain supplier confidence through commodity-price swings.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
Cash was only $1.010 million at FY2025 year-end, small relative to the scale of annual revenue and liabilities. If liquidity holds, BDCO can participate in the next favorable spread cycle; if it fails, counterparties or lenders can capture the economics before shareholders do.
Watch: Suppliers require prepayment or tighter terms, reducing BDCO’s ability to source feedstock.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash was only $1.010 million at FY2025 year-end, small relative to the scale of annual revenue and liabilities.
Open source ↗The turnaround must accrue to common shareholders rather than creditors; liability growth, punitive refinancing, or dilution would absorb the cyclical upside.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
Liabilities were $71.710 million at FY2025 year-end versus $99.072 million of assets. This determines whether an operating recovery becomes per-share value or merely stabilizes the enterprise for lenders and suppliers.
Watch: BDCO refinances debt or payables on terms that transfer most recovery economics to lenders.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Liabilities were $71.710 million at FY2025 year-end versus $99.072 million of assets.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
BDCO’s Gulf Coast downstream assets must capture enough feedstock-to-product spread to cover fixed costs; if regional refining economics normalize against small operators, revenue volume will not create value. If this holds, the asset base has real earnings power; if it breaks, sales become low-quality throughput with little equity value.
The small refining asset base must run reliably enough for fixed-cost leverage to work; outages, maintenance slippage, or regulatory restrictions would turn the same assets from option value into losses. Operational reliability determines whether favorable market conditions actually reach shareholders as operating income.
Liquidity is a strategic constraint, not just a balance-sheet detail: BDCO needs enough cash and credit to buy feedstock and maintain supplier confidence through commodity-price swings. If liquidity holds, BDCO can participate in the next favorable spread cycle; if it fails, counterparties or lenders can capture the economics before shareholders do.
The turnaround must accrue to common shareholders rather than creditors; liability growth, punitive refinancing, or dilution would absorb the cyclical upside. This determines whether an operating recovery becomes per-share value or merely stabilizes the enterprise for lenders and suppliers.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
BDCO is a highly cyclical Gulf Coast downstream turnaround whose equity value depends on restoring refining-spread cash generation before thin liquidity and liabilities absorb the upside.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Blue Dolphin Energy Co
Where the evidence on Blue Dolphin Energy Co disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 holding and 2 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
BDCO’s Gulf Coast downstream assets must capture enough feedstock-to-product spread to cover fixed costs; if regional refining economics normalize against small operators, revenue volume will not create value.
The small refining asset base must run reliably enough for fixed-cost leverage to work; outages, maintenance slippage, or regulatory restrictions would turn the same assets from option value into losses.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Liquidity is a strategic constraint, not just a balance-sheet detail: BDCO needs enough cash and credit to buy feedstock and maintain supplier confidence through commodity-price swings.
The turnaround must accrue to common shareholders rather than creditors; liability growth, punitive refinancing, or dilution would absorb the cyclical upside.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Blue Dolphin Energy Co’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Blue Dolphin Energy Co, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Blue Dolphin Energy Co.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Blue Dolphin Energy Co at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Blue Dolphin Energy Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-22: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Blue Dolphin Energy Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-17: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Blue Dolphin Energy Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-18: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Gulf Coast crack spreads compress as regional refining capacity, imports, or product inventories pressure margins.
- Unplanned refinery downtime or extended maintenance prevents BDCO from processing during favorable margin windows.
- Suppliers require prepayment or tighter terms, reducing BDCO’s ability to source feedstock.
- BDCO refinances debt or payables on terms that transfer most recovery economics to lenders.
BDCO news
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Financial statements
BDCO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
BDCO: quick answers
- When does Blue Dolphin Energy Co (BDCO) report earnings next?
- Blue Dolphin Energy Co's next results are projected for November 13, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 17, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is BDCO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4,126 BDCO shares were sold short, down 7.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.0 day to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BDCO short interest history