Banco Bradesco S.A.

BBDNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$2.57
$0.00 (0.00%)Today 1M −40.23%
After hours$2.56−0.39%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$2.57
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$2.57–$2.62
Regular-session low and high so far today.
48.2M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$2.44–$4.58
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own BBD if credit remains controlled and funding costs hold, asset expansion will continue to drive rising earnings and shareholder returns.

BBD price history

Latest price$2.57Today+$0.00 (+0.00%)
BBD -39.95%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Bradesco's expansion of interest-earning assets (loan and investment book growth) is the primary engine of net-income growth because the bank funds that growth from its liability base at a positive spread.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    assets rose from 1,927,523,249,000.0 BRL (period_end 2023-12-31) to 2,069,484,362,000.0 BRL (2024-12-31) to 2,330,327,216,000.0 BRL (2025-12-31). If true, continued assets growth will translate into higher net income and ROE; if false (loans stall or spreads collapse) earnings will weaken even if the balance sheet remains large.

    Watch: A durable shift of deposits to fintechs/neo-banks that forces Bradesco to replace low-cost retail funding with pricier wholesale borrowing, compressing spreads.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    assets rose from 1,927,523,249,000.0 BRL (period_end 2023-12-31) to 2,069,484,362,000.0 BRL (2024-12-31) to 2,330,327,216,000.0 BRL (2025-12-31).

    Open source ↗
  • Earnings durability depends on credit losses staying controlled; a rise in provisioning or NPLs will break the conversion of asset growth into shareholder value.HoldingMateriality: High

    net_income grew substantially from 14.5B BRL (2023) to 23.9B BRL (2025), implying current credit/provisioning trends have not eroded profitability. If provisioning rises materially, net income and capital will be hit and the stock's growth narrative fails; if credit stays benign, earnings growth is credible.

    Watch: A macro shock (recession) or sector-specific distress that forces materially higher loan-loss provisions (e.g., consumer or corporate credit stress).

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    net_income grew substantially from 14.5B BRL (2023) to 23.9B BRL (2025), implying current credit/provisioning trends have not eroded profitability.

    Open source ↗
  • Operating cash flow swings reveal funding and liquidity cycles that constrain dividend capacity and growth; sustained negative operating cash flow reduces optionality even if income is reported.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    operating_cash_flow swung from 50,228,485,000.0 BRL (2024) to -62,534,000,000.0 BRL (2025), showing large year-to-year volatility in cash-generation from operations. The bank can report profits yet face liquidity/funding pressure that forces higher-cost borrowing or lower payouts; consistent positive operating cash flow supports both lending and shareholder returns.

    Watch: A deposit run or rapid wholesale funding cost increase that forces use of cash or repo lines, widening the spread between assets and liabilities.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow swung from 50,228,485,000.0 BRL (2024) to -62,534,000,000.0 BRL (2025), showing large year-to-year volatility in cash-generation from operations.

    Open source ↗
  • Bradesco's equity base gives it the buffer to grow assets and sustain shareholder distributions provided capital ratios remain acceptable.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    equity rose from 167,014,124,000.0 BRL (2023-12-31) to 168,942,492,000.0 BRL (2024-12-31) to 178,948,630,000.0 BRL (2025-12-31), indicating capital accumulation alongside earnings. If equity/regulated capital falls, the bank must conserve capital (cut dividends, slow lending); stable/increasing equity supports both growth and returns.

    Watch: Regulatory increases to CET1 or new capital buffers specific to systemically important banks that require fresh capital issuance.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    equity rose from 167,014,124,000.0 BRL (2023-12-31) to 168,942,492,000.0 BRL (2024-12-31) to 178,948,630,000.0 BRL (2025-12-31), indicating capital accumulation alongside earnings.

    Open source ↗
  • Growth in liabilities (deposits and other funding) funds the balance-sheet expansion; stable/low-cost liabilities are essential to maintain spreads on new assets.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    liabilities increased from 1,760,509,125,000.0 BRL (2023) to 1,900,541,870,000.0 BRL (2024) to 2,151,378,586,000.0 BRL (2025), tracking assets expansion. If liabilities grow and remain low cost, asset growth is accretive; if liabilities become more expensive or shrink, margin compression will follow and earnings will suffer.

    Watch: A secular shift of retail deposits to digital competitors (e.g., Nubank and other fintechs) that reduces low-cost deposits.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    liabilities increased from 1,760,509,125,000.0 BRL (2023) to 1,900,541,870,000.0 BRL (2024) to 2,151,378,586,000.0 BRL (2025), tracking assets expansion.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Bradesco's expansion of interest-earning assets (loan and investment book growth) is the primary engine of net-income growth because the bank funds that growth from its liability base at a positive spread. If true, continued assets growth will translate into higher net income and ROE; if false (loans stall or spreads collapse) earnings will weaken even if the balance sheet remains large.

Earnings durability depends on credit losses staying controlled; a rise in provisioning or NPLs will break the conversion of asset growth into shareholder value. If provisioning rises materially, net income and capital will be hit and the stock's growth narrative fails; if credit stays benign, earnings growth is credible.

Operating cash flow swings reveal funding and liquidity cycles that constrain dividend capacity and growth; sustained negative operating cash flow reduces optionality even if income is reported. The bank can report profits yet face liquidity/funding pressure that forces higher-cost borrowing or lower payouts; consistent positive operating cash flow supports both lending and shareholder returns.

Bradesco's equity base gives it the buffer to grow assets and sustain shareholder distributions provided capital ratios remain acceptable. If equity/regulated capital falls, the bank must conserve capital (cut dividends, slow lending); stable/increasing equity supports both growth and returns.

Growth in liabilities (deposits and other funding) funds the balance-sheet expansion; stable/low-cost liabilities are essential to maintain spreads on new assets. If liabilities grow and remain low cost, asset growth is accretive; if liabilities become more expensive or shrink, margin compression will follow and earnings will suffer.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

credit remains controlled and funding costs hold, asset expansion will continue to drive rising earnings and shareholder returns.

Evidence assessed Oct 23, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Bank Bradesco

Where the evidence on Bank Bradesco stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 23, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Bradesco's expansion of interest-earning assets (loan and investment book growth) is the primary engine of net-income growth because the bank funds that growth from its liability base at a positive spread.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Earnings durability depends on credit losses staying controlled; a rise in provisioning or NPLs will break the conversion of asset growth into shareholder value.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Operating cash flow swings reveal funding and liquidity cycles that constrain dividend capacity and growth; sustained negative operating cash flow reduces optionality even if income is reported.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Bradesco's equity base gives it the buffer to grow assets and sustain shareholder distributions provided capital ratios remain acceptable.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Growth in liabilities (deposits and other funding) funds the balance-sheet expansion; stable/low-cost liabilities are essential to maintain spreads on new assets.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A durable shift of deposits to fintechs/neo-banks that forces Bradesco to replace low-cost retail funding with pricier wholesale borrowing, compressing spreads.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A macro shock (recession) or sector-specific distress that forces materially higher loan-loss provisions (e.g., consumer or corporate credit stress).

    sec.gov ↗

  • A deposit run or rapid wholesale funding cost increase that forces use of cash or repo lines, widening the spread between assets and liabilities.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Bank Bradesco’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Bank Bradesco, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Bank Bradesco.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

  • Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Several kinds of break have stacked on Bank Bradesco at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Bank Bradesco filed an SEC report on 2026-10-23: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Bank Bradesco filed an SEC report on 2026-10-15: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Bank Bradesco filed an SEC report on 2026-10-14: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A durable shift of deposits to fintechs/neo-banks that forces Bradesco to replace low-cost retail funding with pricier wholesale borrowing, compressing spreads.
  • A macro shock (recession) or sector-specific distress that forces materially higher loan-loss provisions (e.g., consumer or corporate credit stress).
  • A deposit run or rapid wholesale funding cost increase that forces use of cash or repo lines, widening the spread between assets and liabilities.
  • Regulatory increases to CET1 or new capital buffers specific to systemically important banks that require fresh capital issuance.
  • A secular shift of retail deposits to digital competitors (e.g., Nubank and other fintechs) that reduces low-cost deposits.

BBD news

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Financial statements

BBD income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

BBD: quick answers

What is BBD's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 24.8M BBD shares were sold short, up 77.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.0 day to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BBD short interest history
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