Axalta Coating Systems
AXTANYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $37.38 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $36.90–$37.22 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 891.8K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $24.94–$38.61 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own AXTA if Axalta converts its global manufacturing scale, proprietary color-matching and coatings technologies, and a dense local distribution/technical-support footprint into durable aftermarket pricing and higher-margin OEM work, producing steady cash flow that the company can reinvest.
AXTA price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Axalta's refinish business retains share and pricing because precise color‑matching technology, ongoing technical support and a dense local distributor/sales footprint create high switching costs for body shops.HoldingMateriality: High
Axalta describes color matching and local technical support as critical to body shops selecting suppliers (Item 1. Business). If true, Axalta preserves aftermarket volumes and pricing even when vehicle miles or collision frequencies fluctuate; if false, volume and pricing declines will depress revenue and margins.
Watch: A competitor (e.g., PPG, Sherwin-Williams, BASF) rolls out a superior digital color‑matching platform bundled with distribution discounts that body shops adopt industry-wide.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Axalta describes color matching and local technical support as critical to body shops selecting suppliers (Item 1. Business).
Open source ↗Mobility Coatings will deliver higher‑value growth because OEM megatrends (electrification, sustainability, personalization) raise demand for specialized coatings that require Axalta's technical expertise and global supply capabilities.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A notes Mobility Coatings net sales increased in 2025, driven by higher average selling prices and favorable product mix (Mobility Coatings: +1.1% net sales. If Axalta converts OEM megatrends into share gains or higher ASPs, overall revenue and operating margins can expand; if OEMs in‑source coatings or award global contracts to competitors, margin upside disappears.
Watch: Major OEMs consolidate their coatings sourcing into a single competitor (e.g., PPG/BASF) or bring coating application in‑house.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A notes Mobility Coatings net sales increased in 2025, driven by higher average selling prices and favorable product mix (Mobility.
Open source ↗Axalta can protect gross margin through price increases, favorable product mix (more waterborne/high‑solids and industrial/mobility sales) and local supply advantages despite volume cyclicality.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Gross profit held around $1.76–1.80B in 2024–2025 while revenue declined slightly, implying price/mix offset to volumes (gross_profit: $1.798B in 2024. Sustained gross margin protection preserves operating income and cash flow; loss of pricing power or adverse mix would compress margins rapidly because coatings is raw‑material sensitive.
Watch: Material input (resin, pigment, solvent) price spikes or supply disruptions that cannot be fully passed through to customers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit held around $1.76–1.80B in 2024–2025 while revenue declined slightly, implying price/mix offset to volumes (gross_profit: $1.798B in 2024.
Open source ↗Axalta's transformation programs and scale will continue to convert operating profitability into strong operating cash flow, supporting reinvestment, deleveraging or returns to shareholders.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow increased from $294m (2022) to $575m (2023), $576m (2024) and $649m (2025), showing improved cash generation alongside higher operating income. If cash conversion holds, Axalta can fund growth, pay down debt, or buy back stock without risking operations; if cash conversion erodes, leverage or investment options become constrained.
Watch: Large one‑time merger integration costs, acquisition financing, or capex increases tied to new facilities that materially reduce free cash flow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow increased from $294m (2022) to $575m (2023), $576m (2024) and $649m (2025), showing improved cash generation alongside.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Axalta's refinish business retains share and pricing because precise color‑matching technology, ongoing technical support and a dense local distributor/sales footprint create high switching costs for body shops. If true, Axalta preserves aftermarket volumes and pricing even when vehicle miles or collision frequencies fluctuate; if false, volume and pricing declines will depress revenue and margins.
Mobility Coatings will deliver higher‑value growth because OEM megatrends (electrification, sustainability, personalization) raise demand for specialized coatings that require Axalta's technical expertise and global supply capabilities. If Axalta converts OEM megatrends into share gains or higher ASPs, overall revenue and operating margins can expand; if OEMs in‑source coatings or award global contracts to competitors, margin upside disappears.
Axalta can protect gross margin through price increases, favorable product mix (more waterborne/high‑solids and industrial/mobility sales) and local supply advantages despite volume cyclicality. Sustained gross margin protection preserves operating income and cash flow; loss of pricing power or adverse mix would compress margins rapidly because coatings is raw‑material sensitive.
Axalta's transformation programs and scale will continue to convert operating profitability into strong operating cash flow, supporting reinvestment, deleveraging or returns to shareholders. If cash conversion holds, Axalta can fund growth, pay down debt, or buy back stock without risking operations; if cash conversion erodes, leverage or investment options become constrained.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Axalta converts its global manufacturing scale, proprietary color-matching and coatings technologies, and a dense local distribution/technical-support footprint into durable aftermarket pricing and higher-margin OEM work, producing steady cash flow that the company can reinvest.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Axalta Coating Systems
Where the evidence on Axalta Coating Systems stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Axalta's refinish business retains share and pricing because precise color‑matching technology, ongoing technical support and a dense local distributor/sales footprint create high switching costs for body shops.
Mobility Coatings will deliver higher‑value growth because OEM megatrends (electrification, sustainability, personalization) raise demand for specialized coatings that require Axalta's technical expertise and global supply capabilities.
Axalta can protect gross margin through price increases, favorable product mix (more waterborne/high‑solids and industrial/mobility sales) and local supply advantages despite volume cyclicality.
Axalta's transformation programs and scale will continue to convert operating profitability into strong operating cash flow, supporting reinvestment, deleveraging or returns to shareholders.
Bear case: what would count against it
A competitor (e.g., PPG, Sherwin-Williams, BASF) rolls out a superior digital color‑matching platform bundled with distribution discounts that body shops adopt industry-wide.
Major OEMs consolidate their coatings sourcing into a single competitor (e.g., PPG/BASF) or bring coating application in‑house.
Material input (resin, pigment, solvent) price spikes or supply disruptions that cannot be fully passed through to customers.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Axalta Coating Systems
Loading the break-condition record for Axalta Coating Systems.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Axalta Coating Systems filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Axalta Coating Systems filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Axalta Coating Systems filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A competitor (e.g., PPG, Sherwin-Williams, BASF) rolls out a superior digital color‑matching platform bundled with distribution discounts that body shops adopt industry-wide.
- Major OEMs consolidate their coatings sourcing into a single competitor (e.g., PPG/BASF) or bring coating application in‑house.
- Material input (resin, pigment, solvent) price spikes or supply disruptions that cannot be fully passed through to customers.
- Large one‑time merger integration costs, acquisition financing, or capex increases tied to new facilities that materially reduce free cash flow.
AXTA news
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Financial statements
AXTA income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
AXTA: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded AXTA?
- 59 trades in AXTA have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed AXTA trade
- Which well-known investors own AXTA?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported AXTA shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Baupost Group (Seth Klarman), 0.8%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
AXTA in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported AXTA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth KlarmanBaupost Group | 0.81% | $43.6M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $1.7M | −54.3% | Q2 2026 |